Trump tariffs jeopardize Korea's seafood exports

Oceans and Fisheries Minister Kang Do-hyung, left, promotes dried seaweed at Lotte Mart Zettaplex Seoul Station branch in this November 2024 photo, during an event to celebrate the record size of seaweed exports. Courtesy of Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries

U.S. President Donald Trump's planned imposition of a 25 percent tariff on Korea is expected to put the brakes on the recent popularity of Korean seafood in the United States.

A report published recently by the Korea Maritime Institute (KMI) showed on Monday that the country's annual seafood exports to the U.S. are projected to fall by 11.4 percent when considering the effect of the "reciprocal" tariffs on Korean imports alone.

The potential decrease is significant, given that Korea's seafood exports to the U.S. rose 11.7 percent year-on-year to $479 million in 2024. According to the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, U.S. exports accounted for 15.8 percent of Korea's total seafood shipments last year, which reached $3 billion.

Before Trump announced the unexpectedly high tariff rate, the KMI had analyzed the possible impacts of 10 percent universal tariffs on Korean seafood.

In a report published a day before his announcement, the state-sponsored research institute forecast that the universal tariffs would have a limited impact on Korean seafood exporters, as their competitors would also be subject to the same rate.

However, the U.S. decision to impose higher-than-expected tariffs on Korea prompted the institute to quickly publish a new report and inform the fisheries ministry of its updated findings.

Still, the impact may not be entirely negative, as other factors could help cushion the blow and even open up new opportunities for Korean seafood exporters.

Han Ki-uk, a KMI researcher who authored both papers, noted that the ongoing depreciation of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar may offset the impact of the tariffs.

"The won-dollar exchange rate has risen by 8 percent to 10 percent compared to last year," he said. "Without the reciprocal tariffs, the weaker won would have boosted our price competitiveness and could have led to a 6.1 percent to 7.6 percent increase in seafood exports."

The higher tariff rate for Chinese imports has also been mentioned as a favorable factor, considering Korea competes with China in the U.S. market for seaweed, squid and processed oysters.

Han said that the 34 percent tariff on China is likely to enable Korean seaweed, squid and processed oysters to replace Chinese products, increasing Korean exporters' market share.

When considering only the effect of the gap between the reciprocal tariff rates of Korea and China, the KMI analyzed that Korea's seafood exports to the U.S. could inch up by 1.65 percent.

"The higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese seafood could present an opportunity to Korean exporters," Han said. "They should take this chance to step up their marketing efforts and strengthen their competitiveness in the U.S. market."