Uncertainties surrounding the second term of Donald Trump as U.S. president is prompting various sectors across the globe to prepare strategies to minimize economic disruptions. In Korea, while key industries brace for possible tariff-related challenges, retail investors are turning aggressively to speculative assets like cryptocurrency, spurred by Trump's clear indications of a crypto-friendly stance.
Recent statistics from Korea reveal a shift in investment behavior, with domestic investors moving away from traditional banking accounts and toward cryptocurrencies. The country’s five major banks reported a decline of 10 trillion won ($7.2 billion) in checking and savings account balances during the first 14 days of November. Meanwhile, line of credit accounts, often referred to as "minus savings accounts," saw their balances rise by 752.2 billion won. Analysts attribute this trend to the rapid flow of capital into the cryptocurrency markets, adding to the 145 trillion won ($104 billion) already invested by Koreans in U.S. stocks.
Additionally, during the week starting Nov. 11, the daily average transaction volume of Korea's major cryptocurrency exchanges, such as Upbit and Bithumb, reached 21 trillion won. In comparison, the average daily trading volume of the country’s stock markets, including the benchmark KOSPI and junior Kosdaq, was slightly lower at 19 trillion won.
This shift in financial trends was, to some extent, predictable. While media outlets and opinion leaders continue to focus on the geopolitical and economic risks of a potential second Trump administration and its "America First" policies, many grassroots investors have been fixated on a different question: just how far the cryptocurrency market could rally.
It is understandable for investors to gravitate toward opportunities promising higher profits, but this shift comes with significant downsides. The Korean won has been steadily declining in value against global currencies, creating ripple effects across the country’s major stock exchanges. Efforts by the Yoon Suk Yeol administration to combat the devaluation of Korean stocks through improved corporate governance have, so far, been underwhelming. Unlike the global rally that followed Trump’s election on Nov. 5, the KOSPI and Kosdaq failed to participate and are estimated to have lost their value this year. In contrast, stock markets in the U.S., Japan, Hong Kong, and Taiwan have surged, posting double-digit gains.
Korea's economy cannot afford to let the so-called "Trump trade" phenomenon significantly influence domestic financial movements. The external shocks anticipated from the economic policies of a potential second Trump administration — including tariffs, tax cuts, and aggressive measures against China — are likely to have far-reaching implications for the Korean economy. Preparing for these challenges is critical to maintaining economic stability.
But perhaps this is the time to face up to the challenge of addressing difficult domestic issues. The Korean economy is at a critical juncture, facing the urgent need to transition toward new growth drivers. The country’s potential growth rate — the highest rate of economic expansion achievable without causing inflation — is projected to dip below 1 percent after 2035. Currently, Korea’s export engine relies heavily on semiconductors and batteries, industries that face relentless global competition.
Shares of Samsung Electronics, a cornerstone of the Korean economy and a blue-chip leader on the main stock exchange, managed to post gains on Monday only after announcing a 10 trillion won ($7.17 billion) stock buyback plan over the next year. While this move to enhance shareholder value is necessary, sustaining growth will require the company to maintain its technological edge and innovate continuously in the face of mounting global challenges.
Korea's stock markets play a crucial role, serving as both a vital channel for companies to raise necessary funds and one of the last avenues for ordinary citizens to grow their wealth. To maintain this function, the markets must remain competitive. Domestic financial authorities have pledged to stay vigilant and take action when needed to ensure stability.
The government’s "Corporate Value-Up" policy, aimed at enhancing corporate governance, must be strengthened through essential reforms to commercial law. Furthermore, the Yoon administration should collaborate with the incoming U.S. president to address concerns and reduce uncertainties, ensuring a more secure environment for both investors and businesses.