Recently, I listened to an interesting interview on an SBS radio program where Jang Young-ook, Ph.D., the head of Europe Team at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, gave a different perspective on Korea's low birthrate.
He recently welcomed his third baby, which is uncommon in the country where the fertility rate has fallen to 0.7 babies born per woman. He said that while he and his wife were lucky in many aspects, such as having relatively flexible work schedules, there was another reason why they decided to have a third child. He anticipated, from the viewpoint of an economist, that the future for his children might not be as bleak as Koreans are currently concerned. He said that certain aspects of people's lives might even improve when the population decreases.
Citing a New York Times column which compared Korea’s low birthrate to the Black Death, the economist explained what went on during that historical period. Those who survived the plague were presented with some positive outcomes. For instance, they saw a significant increase in wages due to a lack of labor force. He expected a similar phenomenon if a decrease in population leads to a scarcity of labor in Korea.
He added that resources available for investment in each child might also increase with a declining population, leading to the accumulation of human capital. He said that the Black Death eventually led to increased female labor participation, delayed marriage and fewer births, ultimately resulting in the accumulation of human capital that contributed to the Industrial Revolution.
Coupled with the retirement of baby boomers, young people will work less but earn more, and technological advancements like AI, digital technology and ICT will likely benefit a select few workers, he said.
Does it sound too optimistic?
He admits that concerns about population decline are valid. While acknowledging the dark projections for the future, he says there is no need to panic, as it's within our capacity to alter the future. He stressed that we can also conceive a brighter future because ultimately, humanity will strive to find a balance.
Another renowned scholar even says that we should probably not try to pull up the birthrate at all, for the sake of the Earth.
He is Choi Jae-chun, Ph.D., a professor in the College of Natural Sciences at Ewha Womans University specializing in the behavior and ecology of animals. He said on his YouTube channel that he hopes the day would not come when Korea recovers its birthrate.
"From a global perspective, at present, we have forcibly increased the Earth's capacity to accommodate the population through technology. How long can we sustain this?" he said.
"Ultimately, all environmental issues boil down to population issues. Problems arise because there are too many people, so in reality, we need to reduce the population,” the scholar asserted.
He said Korea succeeded in implementing the world's fastest population control measures and was diligently trying to propagate this to other countries. However, suddenly, as developed nations experience reduced numbers of their own citizens, they are encouraging higher birthrates. He says this is a disaster from a global perspective.
While economists constantly worry that a shortage of labor will make life difficult, he says we should seek how to live decently with fewer citizens rather than worrying about that.
Some would agree with the two scholars, while others would not. I am not sure myself. But one undeniable fact is that the government has only failed in pulling up the birthrate, while it says it has spent 380 trillion won since 2006 to tackle the issue.
The two scholars suggest that the current low birthrate is a natural adaptation, possibly associated with issues like high housing and education costs in a densely populated country like Korea. Then, we can also assume that a decrease in population would naturally alleviate pressures in areas such as housing prices, the labor market and education over the next 20 to 30 years.
Jang says what matters more is the need to address issues of fairness in resource allocation during this decline, and handling the increased short-term burdens on welfare systems such as pensions and health care. I can’t agree with him more.
The writer is finance editor at The Korea Times.