The situation on the Korean Peninsula is about to come to a head.
On Thursday, North Korea said it would immediately resume all military measures halted under a 2018 inter-Korean agreement.
Pyongyang’s move came hours after Seoul suspended part of the tension reduction deal following the North’s launch of a military spy satellite, effectively terminating the five-year accord.
If South Korea responds in kind, it will lead to the formal demise of the Sept. 19 Agreement. What will come next? Accidental clashes could occur in the Demilitarized Zone, or North Korea might be tempted to provoke the South in limited ways.
Unlike its predecessors, the Yoon Suk Yeol government will strike back. The Yoon administration has few other options, as it has repeatedly stressed eye-for-an-eye responses. Like the U.S. administration under Donald Trump, there are no adults among Yoon’s aides. Worst-case scenarios beyond that are horrifying to think about.
Now is the time for the two Koreas to regain their cool and seek an exit strategy. Hawks question until when should the South endure the North’s provocations. Strictly speaking, however, the firing of a spy satellite had little to do with the agreement. For the South, it was like the proverbial “slap in the face when one wants to cry.” Hardliners in Seoul have called for nullifying the accord, citing Pyongyang’s unilateral violations.
New Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said at the National Assembly that North Korea violated the accord 3,500 times over the past five years. He was referring to the North’s twice-daily deployment of coastal artillery. However, North Korea’s provocations, totaling 228 under the 2008-13 Lee Myung-bak administration and 108 in the 2013-17 Park Geun-hye administration, plunged to five during the 2017-22 Moon Jae-in administration that signed the accord.
The hawkish defense chief alleged that Israel’s failure to prevent Hamas’ surprise attack was due to a surveillance failure. We do not know whether the Middle East rivals have their version of the Sept. 19 Agreement. Still, experts agree Israel’s intelligence failure was not a problem of gathering information but analyzing it. It was more of a political problem than a military one due to the government’s one-sided rule and national division.
Shin must know that the U.S. government would not have endorsed the 2018 deal had it thought it would cause problems in surveilling the North.
Even now, Washington might not want the agreement to go up in smoke. The U.S. faces suspicions about its intention and ability to lead the free world due to the two ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East. A third conflict in Asia would be the last thing it wants to get involved in.
In contrast, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un perceives, or misperceives, the current global situation as favorable for his reclusive regime. Kim, who has given up on improving ties with the U.S. since his abortive summit with Trump in 2019, is reclaiming the North’s presence in the wake of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Kim welcomes the new Cold War.
Since South Korea regained its democracy about three decades ago, its relationship with North Korea has gone up and down under progressive and conservative presidents. Progressive leaders went all out to maintain peace and co-prosperity on this divided peninsula. They had to fight with and persuade all obstructors — hawks within and outside the nation and North Korea itself. When conservatives took power, however, everything went back to square one. Tension replaced reconciliation.
This seems to be another such moment. Ripping up the inter-Korean military accord will remove the last safety device. Koreans must think about who will benefit most from their return to seven decades ago.
There are groups wanting to maintain some degree of tension on this peninsula rather than allow a drastic change in the status quo, even fanning conflicts. Helping them are hawks in both Koreas. Strong and well-prepared doves must prevail again, replacing chickenhawks.
Koreans should, and can, pick such leaders next year and three and a half years later.