South-North Korea and ARF

By Simon Hutagalung

Both Seoul and Washington have said it would be "the end" of Kim Jong-un's government if North Korea used its nuclear weapons against the United States or its ally South Korea. A statement from Seoul's defense ministry said, "Any nuclear attack on the alliance will face an immediate, overwhelming, and decisive response," echoing previous statements from both Seoul and Washington. At a time when military cooperation between Seoul and Washington is increasing and North Korea is stepping up its nuclear tests, tensions between the two Koreas are at an all-time high.

On July 27, Pyongyang's defense minister expressed concern that a U.S. nuclear-capable submarine's port call to Busan would constitute a "legal threshold" for the North to deploy nuclear weapons for the first time since 1981. As a "legitimate defensive response" to Pyongyang's persistent nuclear threats, the U.S. submarine's port call is justified, the statement claims. This journey was agreed upon in April, during South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's visit to the United States, where he and U.S. President Joe Biden made a joint statement warning Pyongyang that the use of nuclear weapons would have catastrophic results.

Last year, North Korea passed a wide range of nuclear legislation that detailed a variety of situations, some of which were intentionally left ambiguous, under which the country may deploy its nuclear weapons. By declaring that North Korea's status as a nuclear state was now "irreversible" when he announced his new nuclear legislation last year, Kim Jong-un virtually ended any chance of denuclearization discussions. If "an attack by nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction ... is judged to draw near," Pyongyang may deploy its nuclear weapons, according to the law's unclear wording.

President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea made a six-day state visit to the United States, during which he and Vice President Joe Biden discussed strengthening the United States' security shield for South Korea in light of the North's increasing missile testing and the North's nuclear threat.

This is a very terrifying development for the entire area and the entire planet. The degree to which North and South Korea may actively gather assistance from regional powers is complicated by the ongoing conflict and competitiveness among Northeast Asian countries. Attempts to change the status quo through the engagement of regional powers have failed thus far. Despite the importance of bilateral discussions between North Korea and the United States in reducing tensions in the area, they have thus far failed to yield a deal. Instead, regional international institutions like ASEAN may be able to broker a peace pact that provides everyone with sufficient safety.

East Asian nations should look to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a regional organization, as a starting point for peaceful conflict resolution. According to this view, ASEAN's governing body is the ASEAN Regional Forum. The ASEAN-led forum is one of the few international venues in which Pyongyang is a frequent participant. China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, the United States and the European Union are only some of the 27 members. For a long time, the maintenance of peace on the peninsula has been an overarching goal of the ARF, which also addresses broader regional concerns like disputes in the South China Sea.

To convince North Korea that it is safe to give up its nuclear program, ASEAN may be able to play a significant role in the negotiations. Several factors suggest that the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) might be significant in catalyzing progress toward lasting peace on the Korean peninsula. Pyongyang views ASEAN as more impartial than the U.S. or other regional powers in Northeast Asia. The European Union benefited from its apparent neutrality in the 1990s, but this has substantially altered with the installation of its sanctions policy. The relationship between ASEAN and North and South Korea is positive and growing: "With strong ties to both Koreas, ARF is perfectly positioned to act as a middle man' between the North and South." Middle-power countries like the ones that make up ASEAN are often seen as sharing common interests with the two Koreas. North Korea would be better off looking to other ASEAN members like Vietnam and Indonesia for development trajectory examples. When it comes to bringing peace to the Korean Peninsula, Indonesia is in a prime position to lead since it now chairs ASEAN.

To sum up, ARF is the primary venue for addressing the Korean conflict. Peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula were hot topics during the recent ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the only security gathering in the region. The chairman's statement issued following the 27th meeting since the group's formation in 1995 was unprecedented in its focus on a global flashpoint. To reaffirm its "readiness to play a constructive role, including through utilizing ASEAN-led platforms such as the ARF, in promoting a conducive atmosphere to peaceful dialogue among the concerned parties," the ASEAN-led security forum made this statement for the first time. The normal call for calm, collaboration, and strict adherence to UNSC resolutions was absent here.

Simon Hutagalung serves in the Indonesian Foreign Ministry. The views expressed in this article are his own and do not represent those of the ministry