Sleepwalking into war

By John Burton

Several years ago, Christopher Clark, a distinguished British historian, wrote a book called "The Sleepwalkers" about how Europe stumbled into World War I in the summer of 1914. He described how the assassination of the Austro-Hungarian heir, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which was the trigger event for the war, was initially ignored by most of the international community. Britain was distracted by a political crisis and France was focused on a celebrity murder trial, for example.

Although the Balkans had long been known as a powder keg of Europe, there was an initial failure to realize that the looming conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia caused by the assassination would lead to dire consequences for the entire world.

Clark argues that no one really wanted to go to war but that a combination of hawkish statesmen and bureaucratic politics in each of the major European capitals created the conditions for a general continental war. He describes the key players as "sleepwalkers, watchful but unseeing, haunted by dreams, yet blind to the reality of the horror they were about to bring into the world."

I wonder if a similar dynamic is now taking place on the Korean Peninsula, which is a historical powder keg for East Asia, having been at the center of three modern wars (the 1894-5 Sino-Japanese War, the 1904-05 Russian-Japanese War and the 1950-53 Korean War).

There are ominous developments on both sides of the DMZ, but few are paying attention. Washington, for example, is distracted by the Ukraine conflict and rising tensions with China over Taiwan.

Only U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres has made recent reference to the situation, saying that "humanity is just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation," citing the nuclear threat on the Korean Peninsula along with other crisis hotspots in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have risen this year due to an aggressive missile testing program by North Korea. It claims that it is developing a new tactical battlefield missile and it warns that it could attack South Korea with a nuclear weapon ― the first time that Pyongyang has made such a threat. Reports that North Korea is preparing its seventh nuclear test since 2006 is adding to anxiety in Washington and Seoul.

In response, the two allies are toughening their stance against North Korea. They have agreed to expand military exercises this year to repel any North Korean attack and practice counterstrikes. This situation comes after President Yoon Suk-yeol said he wanted to strengthen the military alliance with the U.S. and bolster South Korea's ability to launch a preemptive strike against the North if necessary.

Recent developments bring back memories of the "fire and fury" phase of Donald Trump's presidency when his bellicose statements raised fears of a military conflict after North Korea conducted a series of missile and nuclear bomb tests.

A benign interpretation of why Pyongyang is engaging again in saber-rattling is that it is reverting to its traditional bargaining tactics to gain the attention of Washington and secure concessions, such as sanctions relief. It also might be an attempt to boost domestic unity at a time of pandemic-related economic troubles.

But some officials in the U.S. and South Korea are taking the North Korean threats at face value to justify a more hawkish policy. This stance is reflected in the decision to expand this summer's joint military exercises, which had been canceled or downgraded during the last few years due to COVID-19 restrictions and as a gesture to Pyongyang to resume stalled diplomatic negotiations.

The next few months could see inter-Korean tensions rise further, particularly if North Korea proceeds with another nuclear test. Pyongyang appears ready to take more risky moves since it believes that it can rely on stronger support from China and Russia as they adopt a more adversarial stance to the U.S.

Meanwhile, America's decades-long attempt to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear arsenal appears to be at a dead end. That could persuade Washington to double down on sanctions and build up military forces in Northeast Asia. Such a policy appears to have found favor with President Yoon, a political novice in foreign policy.

He appears ready to expand the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system, the installation of which in Korea in 2017 angered China. Yoon has also voiced support for upgrading the "Kill Chain" program, which is designed to deter a North Korean nuclear attack by conducting a preemptive strike, including targeting the leadership in Pyongyang, with the combined use of ballistic missiles, combat aircraft and submarines. Critics warn that this move will only feed North Korea's paranoia and increase the chances of a nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula.

All the elements appear to be in place to create a situation open to miscalculation and increase the likelihood of an accidental conflict.

John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.