Pandemic fear as strong as virus

By John J. Metzler

More than a year into the COVID-19 pandemic, the world remains shocked and numb to the effects of this "once-in-a-century" virus. Millions have already died, economies have been wrecked, and unemployment and despair are rife.

Yet the panacea of vaccines is helping many countries at long last to stabilize the threat, turn the corner and confront the still potent fear factor among citizens.

In a single year, COVID-19 has created tectonic economic and political changes; the Earth seems to have shifted before our eyes, as the once powerful U.S. economy, characterized by high growth and record low unemployment, stalled and started slipping backwards.

Europe and Japan froze. Developing countries were decimated. The economic turmoil and government-mandated lockdowns added to the peoples' gloom.

But now it's spring, and the American economy is reviving due to numerous costly stimulus plans. Patches of green shoots are sprouting, and there are signs of a significant renewal on the horizon due to the vaccines ― three separate versions (Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson) developed by private industry with strong government incentives during Operation Warp Speed last summer and fall.

Frankly speaking, without the vaccines, people would still be fearful, but now there's selective optimism.

Coordinated vaccine distribution started in the U.S. late last year; the pace has happily quickened and now 120 million people have received the jab. There are three vaccines being used in what has become a necessary and herculean effort for especially older people who urgently need the vaccination. While the U.S. is not yet at "herd immunity," the programs are being received well.

Western Europe on the other hand is facing total vaccine disarray. The primary vaccine under consideration there, AstraZeneca, has worked well in the United Kingdom but faces health fears and hurdles in most of the European Union, including France and Germany.

Moreover, COVID-19 cases are rising as some countries are suspending the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine over the fear of suspected blood clots.

The European Union's entire program has been hampered by centralized procurement, supply shortages and the reluctance of many people, especially in France, to even get the vaccine.

Now facing the third wave of COVID-19 cases, the French government has imposed another series of lockdown measures for large parts of the country: nighttime curfews (7 p.m. to 6 a.m.), travel restrictions and the need for citizens to carry a two-page permission document to do mundane daytime chores in their neighborhood or city.

The travel permission document (classic French paperwork) can conveniently be put on your smartphone to show the police. Despite good intentions, this measure is very much about the government controlling the population.

In Germany there are now lockdowns in major cities, such as Hamburg. Throughout Germany, there have been demonstrations against COVID regulations.

COVID-19 cases are still spiking. Italy has registered over 100,000 total deaths. France is near that number too. Britain still has over 127,000 deaths, and the National Health Service stands at the breaking point.

Contrary to last year, the virus is now ravishing parts of Central Europe, such as Hungary and Poland. Yet Hungary and Poland have the highest vaccination rates in Europe.

Many European countries, such as France, have national healthcare systems that somehow can't handle the crisis.

The Johns Hopkins vaccine dashboard shows that fewer than 4 percent of the French are fully vaccinated, with 4 percent in Italy, Spain and Germany. The U.S. by contrast has 14 percent of the population fully vaccinated, or 46 million people.

Yet there's another issue here. The pandemic and its aftershocks clearly played a significant role in overturning the electoral game board in the United States last year. Joe Biden's election might not have happened had it not been for the political tsunami of the pandemic.

Now, as events are unfolding, don't be surprised if Germany, holding national parliamentary elections in September without the redoubtable Chancellor Angela Merkel running, could see an electoral surprise.

At the same time, French President Emmanuel Macron faces an election next year. Will the undertow of the moribund economy, the pandemic and general social dissatisfaction shake the status quo?

Given the way the European Union has dropped the ball on vaccine distribution, there's widespread criticism in many countries. Anti-EU sentiments, smoldering all along and mirroring Britain's Brexit movement, could easily be stoked.

In the U.S., continuing COVID restrictions place high costs on doing business, while state lockdowns may restrict public movements of the population while not necessarily preventing the spread of the virus in private gatherings.

The sky is no longer falling, but there's still a long way to go.

John J. Metzler (jjmcolumn@earthlink.net) is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of "Divided Dynamism ― The Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China."