By Lee Seong-hyon
China's foreign ministry spokesman skirted away a question whether North Korean leader Kim Jong-un would visit Beijing soon. Oct. 6 marks the 70th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations between China and North Korea. It has been widely expected that a very senior-level visit would transpire, probably at the top level, to commemorate the special anniversary.
Usually, both China and North Korea remain non-committal until the last minute before any top-level visits. But that doesn't prevent academics (such as this author) from speculating, based on past diplomatic practices and recent trends in their bilateral political dynamics.
First, it will be a non-event if Kim makes a visit to China for the 70th birthday of Sino-North Korean friendship. Kim has already made four visits to China in the mere span of the last 18 months. His grandfather Kim Il-sung, the founder of North Korea, made 13 visits. If the current trend continues, Kim will soon outshine his grandfather's China mileage pretty soon. "Kim III" goes to China as frequently as we go to shopping malls. Perhaps that is his purpose: shopping for political leverage and economic allies.
Second, the 70th anniversary is significant enough to warrant the North Korean top leader's visit. Asian culture pays a special meaning to anniversaries that end with multiples of the 10th ― for instance, 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th and so on.
Third, it fits with the spirit of the time in China-North Korea ties. Xi Jinping, during his June 20 visit to Pyongyang, underscored that their relationship entered a "new era" (xin shidai). Both sides have agreed to deepen their relations through frequent political exchanges, as well as those in the economic, military and cultural sectors.
Fourth, it serves Kim's needs. There is likely to be a working-level nuclear negotiation soon to resume between Pyongyang and Washington. Kim has every purpose to display his relationship with China, Pyongyang's most important diplomatic enabler, to ramp up his negotiation leverage.
Kim's personal visit to China would also press China to open their pockets. In history, whenever a North Korean leader visited China, the Chinese leadership always reciprocated with generous economic aid. My understanding is that this has been a constant feature in their relationship, regardless of their bilateral hiccups and changes in international politics. When Kim visited Beijing in January this year, a joke goes that his train came empty but departed full of cargo. Mind you it's a joke in China. But you get the idea.
Here, we may delve a little bit more into the new development in their economic relationship. During Xi's summit with Kim in Pyongyang in June, Xi promised that he would attend to North Korea's desire for economic development and offer help "li suo neng ji" (to the best of one's ability). The top Chinese leader's public pledge is bound to hold a bit of sway.
Since then, one of the areas that has been particularly noticeable is the steep increase in the number of Chinese tourists to North Korea. The Chinese tourists are one of China's most powerful economic weapons. South Korea witnessed this firsthand when it deployed THAAD, an advanced U.S. missile battery system, against China's wishes. China was enraged. It withheld its tourists. The South Korean government is still trying to persuade the Chinese government to lift its ban on group tours to South Korea.
Tourism is not part of the U.N.-mandated sanctions against North Korea. China is free to send its army of tourists to North Korea. There are interesting details, but next time. The point is that the congregated impact of the Chinese tourists rushing to North Korea, together with other economic projects, would not make North Korea rich, but it would offset the intended U.N. sanctions impact.
Fifth, will China also send a top official to North Korea? If so, it will not be Xi. He visited North Korea just three months ago. Therefore, media outlets are speculating that the likely candidate would be Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. It's certainly possible. But in my humble opinion, not likely.
Why?
When China and North Korea celebrate their important political anniversaries, they usually stage one big event either in Beijing or Pyongyang. If Kim and his top aides visit Beijing, then that's the occasion for both sides to meet and greet and celebrate. The Chinese don't send a top leader to North Korea for the same occasion. Instead, the Chinese Embassy in Pyongyang holds an anniversary event and a ranking North Korean official stops by.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute.
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Usually, both China and North Korea remain non-committal until the last minute before any top-level visits. But that doesn't prevent academics (such as this author) from speculating, based on past diplomatic practices and recent trends in their bilateral political dynamics.
First, it will be a non-event if Kim makes a visit to China for the 70th birthday of Sino-North Korean friendship. Kim has already made four visits to China in the mere span of the last 18 months. His grandfather Kim Il-sung, the founder of North Korea, made 13 visits. If the current trend continues, Kim will soon outshine his grandfather's China mileage pretty soon. "Kim III" goes to China as frequently as we go to shopping malls. Perhaps that is his purpose: shopping for political leverage and economic allies.
Second, the 70th anniversary is significant enough to warrant the North Korean top leader's visit. Asian culture pays a special meaning to anniversaries that end with multiples of the 10th ― for instance, 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th and so on.
Third, it fits with the spirit of the time in China-North Korea ties. Xi Jinping, during his June 20 visit to Pyongyang, underscored that their relationship entered a "new era" (xin shidai). Both sides have agreed to deepen their relations through frequent political exchanges, as well as those in the economic, military and cultural sectors.
Fourth, it serves Kim's needs. There is likely to be a working-level nuclear negotiation soon to resume between Pyongyang and Washington. Kim has every purpose to display his relationship with China, Pyongyang's most important diplomatic enabler, to ramp up his negotiation leverage.
Kim's personal visit to China would also press China to open their pockets. In history, whenever a North Korean leader visited China, the Chinese leadership always reciprocated with generous economic aid. My understanding is that this has been a constant feature in their relationship, regardless of their bilateral hiccups and changes in international politics. When Kim visited Beijing in January this year, a joke goes that his train came empty but departed full of cargo. Mind you it's a joke in China. But you get the idea.
Here, we may delve a little bit more into the new development in their economic relationship. During Xi's summit with Kim in Pyongyang in June, Xi promised that he would attend to North Korea's desire for economic development and offer help "li suo neng ji" (to the best of one's ability). The top Chinese leader's public pledge is bound to hold a bit of sway.
Since then, one of the areas that has been particularly noticeable is the steep increase in the number of Chinese tourists to North Korea. The Chinese tourists are one of China's most powerful economic weapons. South Korea witnessed this firsthand when it deployed THAAD, an advanced U.S. missile battery system, against China's wishes. China was enraged. It withheld its tourists. The South Korean government is still trying to persuade the Chinese government to lift its ban on group tours to South Korea.
Tourism is not part of the U.N.-mandated sanctions against North Korea. China is free to send its army of tourists to North Korea. There are interesting details, but next time. The point is that the congregated impact of the Chinese tourists rushing to North Korea, together with other economic projects, would not make North Korea rich, but it would offset the intended U.N. sanctions impact.
Fifth, will China also send a top official to North Korea? If so, it will not be Xi. He visited North Korea just three months ago. Therefore, media outlets are speculating that the likely candidate would be Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. It's certainly possible. But in my humble opinion, not likely.
Why?
When China and North Korea celebrate their important political anniversaries, they usually stage one big event either in Beijing or Pyongyang. If Kim and his top aides visit Beijing, then that's the occasion for both sides to meet and greet and celebrate. The Chinese don't send a top leader to North Korea for the same occasion. Instead, the Chinese Embassy in Pyongyang holds an anniversary event and a ranking North Korean official stops by.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute.
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