What next?

By John Burton

A successful outcome to the Hanoi summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was always based on the premise that both sides were willing to take gradual steps and make compromises.

The outlines of a potential deal were already clear before the Hanoi summit. The U.S. would agree to a declaration ending the Korean War, scale back or cancel joint military exercises with Seoul and establish a liaison office in Pyongyang in the first step toward diplomatic normalization. In return, North Korea would allow some nuclear inspectors into the country and dismantle more nuclear and missile facilities, while keeping its freeze on nuclear and missile testing in place. These steps could be accompanied by a partial easing of U.S. sanctions.

Given this context, it appears that both Trump and Kim overplayed their hand. Kim demanded that tough U.N. sanctions that had been imposed since 2016 be lifted in return for dismantling North Korea's nuclear facility at Yongbyon, while leaving the fate of other suspected nuclear facilities in the country unclear. Trump countered by demanding that North Korea give up all its nuclear facilities in return for sanctions relief, according to The New York Times.

Critics of Trump's reconciliation policy toward Pyongyang have been quick to conclude that Kim thought that he could gain significant concessions because he believed that Trump was in desperate need of a diplomatic victory given the president's growing political problems at home. But Trump appeared to have concluded that he would be seen as weak if he accepted Kim's proposal.

Additionally, Kim's maximalist position might have been due to increased pressure he is facing from military hardliners in Pyongyang to achieve rapid results in terms of sanctions relief if he went ahead of denuclearization measures. His demand also reflected continued distrust in Pyongyang about how far Washington will go in relaxing sanctions.

The U.S. has long insisted that sanctions would only be lifted after North Korea completely dismantled its nuclear program in a verifiable manner and Washington appeared to be sticking to its "all or nothing" stance as reflected in Trump's counteroffer.

Trump also appeared to be bowing to the views of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton, who have been more skeptical than the president in granting concessions to Kim. They have insisted that few sanctions could be lifted until North Korea agreed to a strong verification process or provided a list of its nuclear arsenal.

The central issue that has always bedeviled U.S.-North Korea nuclear talks has been the sequencing and extent of denuclearization and sanctions relief and this continues to be a Gordian knot that is blocking progress.

Having been rebuffed, Kim has suffered a loss of face. Will he now be tempted to restart missile and nuclear tests that have been suspended for 16 months? In the summit's aftermath, Trump said that Kim had promised to maintain the halt on testing and added that negotiations would continue.

There are already calls in Washington for the U.S. to add more sanctions. This could led Kim to renege on his promise concerning testing. But Trump appears determined not to take provocative actions, with the announcement over the weekend that the large joint U.S.-South Korea springtime military exercises will be suspended.

Optimists may regard the Hanoi summit breakdown as a "Reykjavik moment." This refers to the summit in Reykjavik, Iceland in 1986 between President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on an arms control agreement.

Reagan walked out of the summit after rejecting a Soviet proposal that he regarded as flawed. Despite the summit's collapse, enough progress was achieved for the Russians to return a year later with better terms, resulting in the signing of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (which Trump recently abandoned).

It was the good personal chemistry between Reagan and Gorbachev that eventually led to the INF agreement and some are hoping that the same thing may happen this time due to the personal bonds between Trump and Kim. Trump noted his talks with Kim were "productive."

Trump sought to represent the summit breakdown as amicable. "This wasn't a walkaway like you get up and walk out," he said. "No, this was very friendly. We shook hands." Trump added, "There's a warmth that we have and I hope that stays."

It may be up to President Moon Jae-in now to help bring the two parties closer together again. With his own reputation on the line, he will likely now try to reach out to both Washington and Pyongyang to keep things on track.

Moon should offer humanitarian assistance North Korea to keep the diplomatic door open and seek sanctions exemptions on inter-Korea projects, including tourism and rail links. Time is of the essence.

John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.