Pathway to peace

The Korea Times

The Korea Times

Opinion

John Burton

Pathway to peace

Posted : 2019-01-07 17:39

Updated : 2019-01-07 17:39

By John Burton

U.S. commentary about North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's New Year speech last week was largely skeptical. The prevailing tone was that Pyongyang was up to its usual tricks.

It was suggested that Kim was seeking to split the U.S.-South Korean military alliance by praising inter-Korean reconciliation moves, while warning that Washington must do more to reduce tensions. He called for an end to military exercises between the U.S. and South Korea as well as "the introduction of war equipment including strategic assets from outside."

But what really grabbed the attention of U.S. commentators was Kim's implied threat "to find a new way for defending the sovereignty of the country" if the U.S. failed to ease economic sanctions and end other "hostile" measures.

Such views play into a broader narrative often heard in Washington that U.S. President Donald Trump's bold outreach to North Korea has produced few results so far and could eventually fail, raising prospects of renewed military tensions.

What has been largely lost in the critical commentary was Kim's declaration that "we would neither make and test nuclear weapons any longer nor use and proliferate them." This implies that Kim would agree to permanently dismantle his nuclear production facilities and would not export nuclear technology to other countries as North Korea once did to Syria.

This statement falls short of the U.S. goal of North Korea's complete denuclearization, but it does suggest that Pyongyang is open to the idea of a nuclear freeze.

That could provide an opening for a potential deal if Kim and Trump meet at a second summit this year.

Most North Korean watchers in Washington have acknowledged that a complete North Korean denuclearization ― at least in the near term ―- is a fantasy, but some suggest that a freeze of North Korea's nuclear and missile program is a realistic alternative that would help significantly reduce the chances of war on the Korean peninsula.

There is a good possibility that Trump might be tempted to accept Kim's olive branch since a deal to end the nuclear crisis on the Korean president could amount to his greatest foreign policy accomplishment as president and represent a big win when he is facing increased political pressure at home.

Trump could spin such an agreement to his political advantage by claiming that he has forced North Korea to stop expanding its nuclear arsenal, but has kept enough economic sanctions in place to ensure Pyongyang's compliance.

The compromise would be presented as being a significant step toward North Korea's eventual denuclearization based on growing trust between Pyongyang and Washington. In defending his negotiations with Kim, Trump recently told reporters that he had never emphasized the speed of North Korea's denuclearization.

A compromise deal would also fit in with Trump's isolationist views and his skepticism about U.S. military commitments overseas. He does not appear to be in any rush to conclude negotiations with South Korea over the cost of basing U.S. troops in the country after allowing the so-called Special Measures Agreement to expire at the end of December. Talks appear to be stuck over Trump's demand that Seoul should pay more for the U.S. troop presence.

Trump has also cited allegedly large costs for agreeing to suspend the joint military exercises with South Korea. If Trump goes ahead and suspends the large annual field exercises in the spring and replaces them with only computer simulation exercises, it would help facilitate a possible agreement with Pyongyang.

Trump, no doubt, would face pushback on any concessions to North Korea from his administration's hawks, including his National Security Advisor John Bolton and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, But Trump has established a reputation for overruling his advisers as was seen in his recent decision to pull out U.S. troops from Syria, which led to the resignation of U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.

A Democratic-controlled U.S. House of Representatives, which wants to deny Trump any sort of diplomatic victory, would also likely pounce on any compromise deal by suggesting that it would weaken the U.S. strategic position in Asia and undermine U.S. security.

Of course, much will depend on what Kim offers in return if Trump shows interest in a nuclear freeze proposal. Kim for a start would have to accept some form of verification. The U.S. is demanding a complete list of North Korea's nuclear and missile facilities and to allow inspectors to examine other suspicious sites as well, which Pyongyang may be reluctant to do.

President Trump should take Kim up on his promising offer and begin negotiations on a nuclear freeze to see if North Korea is serious about the proposal.

John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.