By John Burton
The North Korean nuclear issue abruptly fell off the radar of most in Washington, D.C. this summer in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's summit with Kim Jung-un on June 12 in Singapore. The war-like rhetoric about North Korea was suddenly toned down as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traveled to Pyongyang to negotiate the details of the Trump-Kim accord to denuclearize North Korea.
But things look like heating up again. Trump recently cancelled a scheduled trip in late August to North Korea by Pompeo to continue the negotiations, just days after a new U.S. special envoy to North Korea was named. The Pentagon has suggested that it will resume joint military exercises with South Korea that had been suspended as a goodwill gesture to Pyongyang, although Trump has reportedly not yet approved the move.
Conservative critics of the Trump-Kim summit are crowing "I told you so" as they repeat their earlier suggestions that the American president had been hoodwinked by Kim. Pompeo apparently has not been able to achieve any considerable concessions. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has been leaking intelligence that Pyongyang is continuing to develop its nuclear weapons.
The real sticking point, however, appears to revolve around the issue of whether the U.S. is willing to sign some form of peace treaty with North Korea before Pyongyang releases a list of its declared nuclear facilities and begins dismantling them.
Prior to the summit, Trump indicated that a good starting point to get the talks rolling would be for him to highlight his intention to bring an end to the Korean War by signing a peace declaration, if not a formal peace treaty. But he did not make any such public announcement of this in Singapore, although it is now being reported that he privately promised Kim during their face-to-face discussions the he would soon sign a peace document.
If these reports are accurate, it may explain why North Korea has been dragging its feet recently and resuming its hostile rhetoric against Washington since there has been little sign in the last two months of the U.S. implementing this promise.
U.S.-North Korean negotiations have often faltered during the past 25 years on the sequence of promised actions by each side. Trump earlier appeared to recognize that the U.S. might have to deliver the first major concession in the form of an official peace declaration to persuade Pyongyang in response in kind.
A peace agreement by the U.S. is important to Kim to placate hard-line critics in Pyongyang before he begins to reduce the country's nuclear arsenal.
So why has Trump apparently reneged on his promise? He may have caved to pressure from the national security establishment that has always argued that any deal with Kim is a trick.
John Bolton, Trump's national security advisor, has long been an opponent of any compromise with North Korea on its nuclear weapons. The Pentagon has also worried that a peace agreement could lead to the withdrawal of U.S troops from South Korea (particularly when Trump has complained about the cost of maintaining them there), which is said to explain why U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis is also opposing the peace initiative.
But given the ever-changeable nature of Trump could he reverse course once again and offer a peace declaration?
It was said that one key motivation for Trump to meet Kim was that the American president saw this as an opportunity to win the Nobel Peace Prize. If that is true, then Trump has more reason than ever before to pursue a peace deal to rescue himself from the damaging effects of the mounting Russiagate investigation.
Trump is also likely to face pressure from Seoul to pursue the peace deal option. President Moon Jae-in endorsed the idea during his talks with Kim. The topic is likely to be discussed again during the inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang this month since both sides have indicated they want some sort of a signed agreement by the end of the year.
Moreover, Trump is losing his leverage over North Korea as the international sanctions regime against the country begins to crack. Beijing's relations with Pyongyang appear to be warming following three meetings between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Kim this year. As a result, China may quietly ease trade restrictions with North Korea in the coming months, particularly if a Sino-American trade war escalates.
Trump faces a stark choice. He can either scrap talks with North Korea and reconsider military options, which would also likely put him on a collision course with Seoul, or else decide that a peace agreement could represent his best deal ever.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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But things look like heating up again. Trump recently cancelled a scheduled trip in late August to North Korea by Pompeo to continue the negotiations, just days after a new U.S. special envoy to North Korea was named. The Pentagon has suggested that it will resume joint military exercises with South Korea that had been suspended as a goodwill gesture to Pyongyang, although Trump has reportedly not yet approved the move.
Conservative critics of the Trump-Kim summit are crowing "I told you so" as they repeat their earlier suggestions that the American president had been hoodwinked by Kim. Pompeo apparently has not been able to achieve any considerable concessions. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has been leaking intelligence that Pyongyang is continuing to develop its nuclear weapons.
The real sticking point, however, appears to revolve around the issue of whether the U.S. is willing to sign some form of peace treaty with North Korea before Pyongyang releases a list of its declared nuclear facilities and begins dismantling them.
Prior to the summit, Trump indicated that a good starting point to get the talks rolling would be for him to highlight his intention to bring an end to the Korean War by signing a peace declaration, if not a formal peace treaty. But he did not make any such public announcement of this in Singapore, although it is now being reported that he privately promised Kim during their face-to-face discussions the he would soon sign a peace document.
If these reports are accurate, it may explain why North Korea has been dragging its feet recently and resuming its hostile rhetoric against Washington since there has been little sign in the last two months of the U.S. implementing this promise.
U.S.-North Korean negotiations have often faltered during the past 25 years on the sequence of promised actions by each side. Trump earlier appeared to recognize that the U.S. might have to deliver the first major concession in the form of an official peace declaration to persuade Pyongyang in response in kind.
A peace agreement by the U.S. is important to Kim to placate hard-line critics in Pyongyang before he begins to reduce the country's nuclear arsenal.
So why has Trump apparently reneged on his promise? He may have caved to pressure from the national security establishment that has always argued that any deal with Kim is a trick.
John Bolton, Trump's national security advisor, has long been an opponent of any compromise with North Korea on its nuclear weapons. The Pentagon has also worried that a peace agreement could lead to the withdrawal of U.S troops from South Korea (particularly when Trump has complained about the cost of maintaining them there), which is said to explain why U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis is also opposing the peace initiative.
But given the ever-changeable nature of Trump could he reverse course once again and offer a peace declaration?
It was said that one key motivation for Trump to meet Kim was that the American president saw this as an opportunity to win the Nobel Peace Prize. If that is true, then Trump has more reason than ever before to pursue a peace deal to rescue himself from the damaging effects of the mounting Russiagate investigation.
Trump is also likely to face pressure from Seoul to pursue the peace deal option. President Moon Jae-in endorsed the idea during his talks with Kim. The topic is likely to be discussed again during the inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang this month since both sides have indicated they want some sort of a signed agreement by the end of the year.
Moreover, Trump is losing his leverage over North Korea as the international sanctions regime against the country begins to crack. Beijing's relations with Pyongyang appear to be warming following three meetings between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Kim this year. As a result, China may quietly ease trade restrictions with North Korea in the coming months, particularly if a Sino-American trade war escalates.
Trump faces a stark choice. He can either scrap talks with North Korea and reconsider military options, which would also likely put him on a collision course with Seoul, or else decide that a peace agreement could represent his best deal ever.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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