Challenges Korea faces

By Park Yoon-bae

South Korea faces two major diplomatic and security challenges this year. The first challenge is North Korea's persistent development of nuclear weapons. The second one is the growing rivalry between the United States and China.

The North's nuclear arsenal is an existential threat to the South. For this reason, President Moon Jae-in has sought active engagement with the North to prod it to give up its nuclear program and move toward peace and co-prosperity.

Nevertheless, Moon has yet to produce successful results, despite his efforts to broker summits between former U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Nuclear talks have been stalled since the no-deal Hanoi summit in February 2019. This means Trump's top-down approach had not worked properly to achieve the goal of complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the North.

Now President Moon will have to work closely with new U.S. President Joe Biden to revive the negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang. Yet the problem is how to narrow their differences over the method of denuclearization.

As Moon said during his New Year press conference last month, he would prefer to continue with a top-down approach as Trump did in the summitry with Kim. He has stressed the need for Seoul and Washington to start where Trump left off and recognize the progress he had made in dealing with the North.

However, Biden is expected to take a "bottom-up" approach. During a presidential debate in the lead-up to the November election, he lashed out at Trump for legitimizing Pyongyang's development of nuclear weapons by holding summits with the North Korean dictator. He even called Kim a "thug."

Biden, who served as vice president during the Barack Obama administration, must have had deep distrust in North Korea and its leader. This reminds us of "strategic patience," Obama's policy toward the North Korean nuclear standoff of applying pressure and sanctions without engaging with the recalcitrant state before bringing it to its knees.

The Biden administration, of course, is unlikely to return to strategic patience, given that the present situation is very different from the past. North Korea has now arguably completed its nuclear program with a capability to attack the U.S. mainland with nuclear-tipped ICBMs.

Biden seems well aware of the growing military threats from the North. But it is still doubtful if he will actively engage with the North to persuade it to abandon its nuclear arsenal in return for sanctions relief, security guarantees and economic aid. Even if he sets out such an engagement policy, no one knows if Kim will return to dialogue.

However, Moon is still confident that Kim is ready to denuclearize the North. He is overly optimistic, considering that Kim vowed to strengthen the North's nuclear capability during the eighth congress of the ruling Workers' Party early last month. Moon needs to face up to reality and take a realistic approach.

Moon appears to feel time-pressed because his term will end in May 2022. But he should not rush to make any progress in his peace initiative. Haste makes waste. Worse, he may lose trust not only with the U.S., but also with the North, if he attempts to broker a deal hastily between Biden and Kim.

That's why Seoul needs to have close consultations with Washington to iron out differences and hammer out a joint strategy. The Biden administration is now reviewing its approach toward North Korea. It is important for the two allies to draft a well-coordinated policy. Dissonance will only benefit the North.

Another challenge for South Korea is the feared deterioration in U.S.-China relations. Biden may take a tougher stance on China than Trump, although he wants to cooperate with the Asian rival in such areas as climate change, public health, nuclear nonproliferation and poverty reduction.

Biden is certain to continue Trump's trade and technology war with Beijing to protect the U.S.' national interests and counter China's rise. America sees China as a partner, competitor and potential enemy at the same time. So it is inevitable for Sino-U.S. ties to become more complicated: Both countries have to collaborate on some common issues, while clashing over other matters such as human rights and the South China Sea.

If the rivalry between the G2 intensifies, South Korea could sustain collateral damage. There are growing worries that the South will be caught in the crossfire as seen in the deployment of a U.S. anti-missile battery here in 2017.

The country is heavily dependent on the U.S. for defense and security, while relying on China for economic growth. But it might be forced to choose between the two global giants. Washington may ask Seoul to join its anti-China alliance, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, better known as the Quad, comprising the U.S., Japan, Australia and India.

This shows the need for Seoul to strike a diplomatic balance between Washington and Beijing. It is necessary for the country to map out a long-term strategy to avoid a worst-case scenario. Do not leave the fate of our country at the mercy of others no matter how difficult it is.

The author (byb@koreatimes.co.kr) is the chief editorial writer of The Korea Times.