Tougher tug of war

By Park Yoon-bae

President Moon Jae-in's third summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un last month has raised hopes for a breakthrough in the stalled denuclearization talks, as well as closer ties between the two Koreas.

There is no doubt Moon has managed to live up to U.S. President Donald Trump's call to serve as "chief negotiator" between the two archrivals who fought each other in the 1950-53 Korean War.

Furthermore, Moon has come to develop a friendship with Kim, visiting Mount Paektu together. Their bromance culminated when they raised their joined hands atop the highest peak of the sacred mountain, a day after they held a meeting in Pyongyang.

Then Moon flew to New York to meet with President Trump on the sidelines of the annual United Nations General Assembly last week. He assured Trump about Kim's renewed commitment to denuclearization. This made Trump eager for a second summit with Kim.

It is also true Moon went so far as to pitch what Kim wants the U.S. to do ― "corresponding measures" in response to the North's move toward denuclearization. Moon called on the U.S. to formally declare an end to the Korean War, which came to a halt with an armistice rather than a peace treaty.

This invited criticism, though not serious, for Moon acting as a "spokesman" for Kim. The Trump administration is reluctant to accommodate the North's demands for taking corresponding steps such as the end-of-war declaration and sanctions relief. Trump expressed his willingness to meet Kim again, but reaffirmed international sanctions stay in place until the North denuclearizes.

Apparently disappointed with U.S. refusal to take simultaneous and reciprocal steps, North Korea's Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho told the U.N. General Assembly on Saturday that his country would not denuclearize unilaterally.

Ri appeared to put the cart before the horse because he set the end-of-war declaration and easing of sanctions as a precondition for scrapping the nuclear program. If the North sticks to this precondition, it would presage a tug of war with the U.S. down the road. This also could make it difficult, if not impossible, to narrow their differences over the timetable and methods of denuclearization.

Of course, no one can categorically rule out the possibility of a trade-off between the two foes. Yet the U.S. has so far made it clear it will not offer the North security guarantees or other rewards until the latter makes tangible progress in dismantling its nukes. Washington is asking Pyongyang to disclose a list of its nuclear weapons first.

But the Kim regime is refusing to comply with the request. Rather it prefers to dismantle nuclear weapons and facilities on its own without international inspection and verification.

During his latest meeting with Moon, Kim agreed to shut down the Tongchang-ri missile engine testing facility and missile launch pads with the participation of experts from related countries. He also promised to take additional steps, such as the permanent shutdown of its Yongbyon nuclear facilities, if the U.S. takes corresponding measures.

However, Kim's agreement and promise fall short of allowing international experts, probably from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or the U.S., to inspect and verify the North's nuclear weapons stockpile, fissile material and nuclear facilities.

Taken overall, it is still doubtful the North is ready to take sincere and credible steps toward what the U.S. seeks ― a final, fully verified denuclearization (FFVD).

Kim kicked off a charm and peace offensive by taking advantage of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics in February. This offensive was a far cry from missile and nuclear tests that drew a "fire and fury" reaction from Trump who called Kim "Little Rocket Man … on a suicide mission." Kim's sudden change, however, opened the way for the April 27 Panmunjeom summit with Moon and the June 12 Singapore summit with Trump.

But the problem is Kim made too vague a commitment to the "complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula." And he has done little to make good on his promise, putting his real intentions into question.

Despite the growing mood for detente and rapidly changing geopolitical developments on the peninsula, the North has yet to define denuclearization. South Korea, the U.S. and other concerned parties have no idea what Kim is really up to.

In this situation, it is somewhat absurd to see Trump saying Saturday that he and Kim fell in love. Certainly, he may have just wanted to boast of his bromance with the North Korean leader at a campaign rally. Or he might try to engage in a lovefest with Kim in a bid to get out of domestic political trouble ahead of the November midterm elections.

But the two leaders would probably end up as strange bedfellows if Kim is unfaithful in fulfilling his promise ― although Moon is confident Kim has no reason to cheat on Trump. And who knows whether the three run the risk of getting stuck in a love triangle?

Park Yoon-bae (byb@koreatimes.co.kr) is the chief editorial writer of The Korea Times.