Unwarranted Quad entry into North Korea's denuclearization

By Sandip Kumar Mishra

Most North Korea watchers were surprised that the joint statement issued on March 12 after the first summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, better known as Quad, mentioned the issue of North Korean denuclearization in one of its five points. Actually, the issue of abduction of Japanese citizens was also mentioned in it.

The statement read "We reaffirm our commitment to the complete denuclearization of North Korea in accordance with United Nations Security Council resolutions, and also confirm the necessity of immediate resolution of the issue of Japanese abductees."

It may be taken as a strong commitment and priority of the United States to deal with North Korea issues, but the addition of Quad countries in North Korea's denuclearization would in fact complicate the issue further for the following reasons.

First, it is no secret that the Quad is a mechanism to counterbalance China in the region or so China perceives. If the North Korean nuclear issue is approached via the Quad, it means that getting China's cooperation in the process would become more improbable.

It is important to underline that insufficient connections between the U.S. and China was one of the reasons why the three summits between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in Singapore, Hanoi and Panmunjeom did not lead to any forward movement. Kim had prior consultations with China before all his summits with Donald Trump.

Two, it also means that there could be a gap between the U.S. and South Korean approaches to denuclearize North Korea, as the Moon Jae-in administration has underlined on multiple occasions that China's role is critical. It is important to recall that on March 5, 2018, South Korean envoys Chung Eui-yong and Suh Hoon met Kim in Pyongyang and North Korea agreed to hold denuclearization talks with the U.S.

Chung visited Washington on March 9 the same year and conveyed this message to the U.S. and immediately afterward went to Beijing on March 12 to convey the same to China. South Korea would not consider it pragmatic on the part of the Biden administration to bypass China.

Three, North Korea could also object to shifting goals, as the U.S. had agreed to "complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" in the joint statement after the Singapore summit on June 12, 2018, but now speaks of "complete?denuclearization of North Korea" in the Quad joint statement. Actually, the Moon administration might consider the change in the U.S. stand unnecessary as there in no tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea at the moment anyway.

Four, by mentioning the abduction issue of Japanese citizens by North Korea in the joint statement of the Quad, the U.S. apparently has unnecessarily connected an emotional issue with the already complex issue of North Korean denuclearization.

The abduction issue is a five-decade-old issue between Japan and North Korea and part of it has already been resolved. Raising the abduction issue, which is largely an emotive one, on par with North Korean denuclearization appears unreasonable.

Five, even though India has had continuous diplomatic relations with North Korea since 1973 and is also ready to contribute positively in the process of North Korean denuclearization, New Delhi's role remains limited. Expecting much from the involvement of Australia is very strange as it does not have even an embassy in North Korea or vice versa.

Six, it is true that the Biden administration's North Korea policy is still in the making and we should not overanalyze the joint statement of the Quad on the issues of North Korea's denuclearization or abduction of Japanese citizens.

However, it indicates that, rather than the U.S., it was Japan which called the shots and was able to connect the abductee issue with the denuclearization issue through the joint statement. Japan wanted to do so in the past also and made requests to Donald Trump and Moon Jae-in before almost every summit they had with the North Korean leader.

It was considered myopic on the part of Japan to raise an emotive domestic issue and complicate the denuclearization issue. It was even alleged that it was basically an attempt of Japan to derail the engagements with North Korea as Japan was marginalized in the process.

Seven, it is also possible that by overtly mentioning the North Korean denuclearization issue in the joint statement of the Quad leaders, the U.S. wants to push South Korea to join the Indo-Pacific strategy which has been avoided by the Moon Jae-in administration so far.

In conclusion, it could be said that whatever the context and motive of the mentioning the North Korean denuclearization issue in the Quad joint statement, it appears that the Biden administration has been inching toward moving backward by connecting denuclearization with other issues and rather than taking a proactive lead in resolution of the issue, trying to have a broad but ineffective network which may look good but its utility would be limited.

Sandip Kumar Mishra (sandipmishra10@gmail.com) is an associate professor at the Centre for East Asian Studies, the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.