The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
  • World Expo 2030
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
  • Hangzhou Asian Games
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
  • World Expo 2030
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
  • Hangzhou Asian Games
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
  • Login
  • Register
  • Login
  • Register
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
  • 1

    BTS stars shine brighter as solo artists

  • 3

    N. Korea holds politburo meeting to discuss Kim-Putin summit: KCNA

  • 5

    30 people purchased 8,000 homes: data

  • 7

    Rowoon leaves SF9 to focus on acting career

  • 9

    Korea urged to adopt China exit strategy amid hegemonic war

  • 11

    Netflix's 'Song of the Bandits' blends western action with Korean period series

  • 13

    Foreign ministry asks Japan to investigate case of Korean poisoned with bleach in Tokyo

  • 15

    BTS defies K-pop's 'seven-year curse'

  • 17

    National Assembly passes motion to arrest DPK chief

  • 19

    Merck emphasizes digitalization in semiconductor market

  • 2

    '30 Days' promises laughter, unlikely romance

  • 4

    North Korean escapees tell how nuclear tests ruined their health, hometown

  • 6

    ITZY's Lia takes break to put mental health first

  • 8

    USFK soldier, 2 women arrested for drug trafficking

  • 10

    Seventeen to drop 11th EP next month

  • 12

    INTERVIEWPutin uses summit with NK leader to stop Seoul from helping Ukraine: expert

  • 14

    Lamborghini driver suspect sent to prosecutors over parking dispute in Gangnam

  • 16

    Unfreezing of funds not likely to restore Korea-Iran ties

  • 18

    Seoul plans to build Jamsil Sports MICE Complex

  • 20

    Invasion of 'smart' albums

Close scrollclosebutton

Close for 24 hours

Open
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
Opinion
  • Yun Byung-se
  • Kim Won-soo
  • Ahn Ho-young
  • Kim Sang-woo
  • Lee Kyung-hwa
  • Mitch Shin
  • Peter S. Kim
  • Daniel Shin
  • Jeon Su-mi
  • Jang Daul
  • Song Kyung-jin
  • Park Jung-won
  • Cho Hee-kyoung
  • Park Chong-hoon
  • Kim Sung-woo
  • Donald Kirk
  • John Burton
  • Robert D. Atkinson
  • Mark Peterson
  • Eugene Lee
  • Rushan Ziatdinov
  • Lee Jong-eun
  • Chyung Eun-ju and Joel Cho
  • Bernhard J. Seliger
  • Imran Khalid
  • Troy Stangarone
  • Jason Lim
  • Casey Lartigue, Jr.
  • Bernard Rowan
  • Steven L. Shields
  • Deauwand Myers
  • John J. Metzler
  • Andrew Hammond
  • Sandip Kumar Mishra
Fri, September 22, 2023 | 20:16
Kim Won-soo
Emerging global (dis)order: Quo vadis ordo?
Posted : 2021-12-19 16:59
Updated : 2021-12-19 16:59
Print PreviewPrint Preview
Font Size UpFont Size Up
Font Size DownFont Size Down
  • facebook
  • twitter
  • kakaolink
  • whatsapp
  • reddit
  • mailto
  • link
By Kim Won-soo

The order among the nations, or more realistically the balance of power among major powers is undergoing tectonic shifts. At its heart lies the fast rise of China relative to the United States. While there has been much debate in the expert community on whether the current state of international relations will lead to a new Cold War between Washington and Beijing, no consensual view has emerged as yet.

Between the post-World War II and present situations, similarities exist on the relative power distribution of the two most powerful states and their value divide. But differences also exist in terms of the gap in the strategic balance of power between the two and their economic interdependence. China has caught up close with the U.S. in aggregate national power. Accordingly, the U.S.-China competition is raging in all areas including trade, technology, security and finance. But the U.S. still maintains dominance in most key areas, in particular strategic military capabilities and global finance. China may need more time to catch up, perhaps longer than popularly assumed. Efforts to decouple the economies of the U.S. and China may turn out to be much harder in the real world than any political logic would favor. The two economies have become inter-connected at much higher levels than the Soviet Union and the U.S. ever were. As to how these trends will evolve, we will need more time and a long-term expert analysis to have a clear answer.

For the near term, there is a consensual concern on the volatility of the current state of global order or lack thereof, from which serious structural risks are already arising. The two most palpable risks are the Thucydides Trap and the Kindleberger Trap, which are suggested by Graham Allison and Joseph Nye of Harvard University respectively. The former highlights the danger of collision between the existing hegemon and the rising challenger, while the latter points to the risk of leadership vacuum created by the failure of action by the new hegemon. Both traps must be avoided not only for the U.S. and China but also for the whole world. But it takes two to tango.

The Sino-American relationship moved from cooperative engagement during the Obama administration to unmanaged competition during the Trump administration. The choice of the Obama team was understandable in view of the need to steer Washington and the rest of the world out of the global financial crisis of 2007-8. But that choice allowed Beijing to grow faster than most other economies and catch up close with the U.S. This new reality may have influenced the almost 180 degree turn of approach taken by the Trump team. But Trump's approach was mostly so ad-hoc and transactional that it made it difficult to manage U.S.-China relations in a predictable and consistent manner. The outcome was disappointing with little real gain. Heightened mutual distrust caused most of the dialogue channels to be cut-off or suspended. The resumption has yet to take place almost a year following Biden's inauguration.

Now the Biden team's focus seems to be on managing U.S.-China competition responsibly. The virtual summit between the two presidents from a month ago was a welcome development. But no tangible follow-up actions have been made. Instead it was soon eclipsed by negative developments like the announced U.S. diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics. Shifting to managed competition is much easier said than actually done. It requires the following three things to succeed.

First, some combinations of the Three Cs, namely cooperation, competition and confrontation, are inevitable, depending on the differing interests and priorities of the two countries in various issue areas. But the escalation of this mixture into the fourth C (conflict) must be prevented at all costs. This includes both intended and unintended possibilities of conflict, which would be entirely unnecessary and disastrous for the whole world. For that, a credible crisis management mechanism is urgently needed between the two powers including a hotline at the working level as well as high-level back door channels for crisis communications.

Secondly, both countries must work together to resume bilateral consultations on issues of serious mutual concern. The highest priority should be on coping with existential threats against humanity including weapons of mass destruction (WMD), terrorism, climate change and emerging disruptive technologies related to cyberspace and outer space. On these issues, the two countries face urgent and common threats. So they could potentially find common ground on how to pursue issue-based future-oriented cooperation.

Thirdly, both countries should have a realistic look at global and regional value chains. The COVID-19 pandemic brought to the fore the need to adjust the value chains from the "just in time" to the "just in case" consideration. But regardless of any adjustments to be made, one thing is clear: the economies of the U.S. and China cannot be divorced easily. Any decoupling attempt would inevitably entail confusion and adverse consequences which would likely be a lose-lose situation for both economies.

These are daunting tasks to begin with. Unfortunately, high levels of mutual distrust between the two countries, along with China's near complete pandemic lockdown, has made them even more so over the past couple of years. Building confidence cannot be done easily without personal engagement and trust-building among the key figures to be involved in the resumed bilateral dialogue process. Now is the time for the leaders of the two countries to do their intellectual homework. They have to reconsider their current approaches seriously with enlightened self-interests in mind, before direct in-person engagements can resume. They owe it to themselves and to the whole humanity.


Kim Won-soo (wsk4321@gmail.com) is the former under secretary-general of the United Nations and the high representative for disarmament. As a Korean diplomat, he served as secretary to the ROK president for foreign affairs. He is now the chair of the international advisory board of the Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae) and a member of the Group of Eminent Persons for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBTO).


 
miguel
Top 10 Stories
130 people purchased 8,000 homes: data 30 people purchased 8,000 homes: data
2National Assembly passes motion to arrest DPK chiefNational Assembly passes motion to arrest DPK chief
3Gender equality minister nominee in hot seat over remarks on abortion Gender equality minister nominee in hot seat over remarks on abortion
4Seoul invites ambassadors to introduce new halal foods in Korea Seoul invites ambassadors to introduce new halal foods in Korea
5Kim Jong-un's rejection of Russia's food assistance irritates North Korean defectors Kim Jong-un's rejection of Russia's food assistance irritates North Korean defectors
6Scientists find green way to turn CO2 into fuel with sunlightScientists find green way to turn CO2 into fuel with sunlight
7S. Korea condemns Russia, seeks to mend ties with China S. Korea condemns Russia, seeks to mend ties with China
8COVID-19 deaths hit record high in Korea for 2022 COVID-19 deaths hit record high in Korea for 2022
9Honey-dipped cookie to represent 'K-desserts' at global food expo in Germany Honey-dipped cookie to represent 'K-desserts' at global food expo in Germany
10Rights experts from 17 countries demand release of North Korean escapees in China Rights experts from 17 countries demand release of North Korean escapees in China
Top 5 Entertainment News
1BTS defies K-pop's 'seven-year curse' BTS defies K-pop's 'seven-year curse'
2Aespa's VR concert to hit theaters Oct. 25 Aespa's VR concert to hit theaters Oct. 25
3Gang Dong-won becomes exorcist con artist in 'Dr. Cheon and Lost Talisman' Gang Dong-won becomes exorcist con artist in 'Dr. Cheon and Lost Talisman'
4[INTERVIEW] Virtual K-pop group MAVE: is more than just pretty pixels INTERVIEWVirtual K-pop group MAVE: is more than just pretty pixels
5BLACKPINK's contract renewal still in limbo BLACKPINK's contract renewal still in limbo
DARKROOM
  • Turkey-Syria earthquake

    Turkey-Syria earthquake

  • Nepal plane crash

    Nepal plane crash

  • Brazil capital uprising

    Brazil capital uprising

  • Happy New Year 2023

    Happy New Year 2023

  • World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

    World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

CEO & Publisher : Oh Young-jin
Digital News Email : webmaster@koreatimes.co.kr
Tel : 02-724-2114
Online newspaper registration No : 서울,아52844
Date of registration : 2020.02.05
Masthead : The Korea Times
Copyright © koreatimes.co.kr. All rights reserved.
  • About Us
  • Introduction
  • History
  • Contact Us
  • Products & Services
  • Subscribe
  • E-paper
  • RSS Service
  • Content Sales
  • Site Map
  • Policy
  • Code of Ethics
  • Ombudsman
  • Privacy Statement
  • Terms of Service
  • Copyright Policy
  • Family Site
  • Hankook Ilbo
  • Dongwha Group