By Alex Gratzek
Watching the Russian invasion of Ukraine a few things became quite evident. For one, the rot in Putin's Russia has been unmistakably exposed.
Everything which has unfolded so far has been botched and frankly I don't see a way for him to recover. I suspect his days as czar are numbered as the people realize the emperor has no clothes. Let's dive in.
First, the vaunted Russian Army has shown itself to be a paper tiger. Previous successes in Georgia (2008), Crimea (2014) and Syria (2015) had given credence to the idea that the lumbering Soviet Army Putin had inherited had become a modernized, professional, motivated force.
Keep in mind Saddam Hussein remained in power after the First Gulf War because his elite units remained intact. The paratroopers were anticipating supporting columns from Belarus. However, they were composed of conscripts who made limited headway due to stiff resistance and logistical issues. Many of these columns have been destroyed and some appear to have been abandoned intact.
The takeaway? The average Russian soldier's morale is abysmally low while the paratroopers and 5th columnists have found themselves destroyed when they make an appearance.
Recently, Russian forces had been used to put down unrest against pro-Kremlin leaders in Belarus and Kazakhstan. Maybe Putin was delusional enough to think Ukraine would be a similar cakewalk with welcoming crowds.
Even if the Russian soldiers bought into the propaganda emanating from the Kremlin, their reception on the ground has quickly revealed such deceptions. Ukrainian civilians have been taking down road signs, cursing Russians and trying to block tanks a la Tankman at Tiananmen Square in 1989.
You can't mistake their displeasure. Fifth columnists and saboteurs ― traditional assets Russia had used to maintain plausible deniability ― have had their activities negated by a vigilant Ukrainian society.
That leads into one of Putin's gravest misreads. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected in 2019 with nearly 73 percent of the vote. That was an astounding number considering previous elections had been bitterly divided between candidates representing Western and Eastern Ukraine.
It's not hard to fathom that Putin truly believed Zelenskyy could only have achieved such a high percentage of the vote as an installed Western puppet.
Russia always liked to think of Ukraine as a brother nation but the crucible of war will create a sense of national identity that Moscow has always pushed back against.
The idea of medieval Kievan Rus' looms large in the minds of Kremlin leaders in the terms of political legitimacy and its symbolism as the capital of the first Rus state. If today's Kyiv can pivot to a Western orientation, it puts tremendous pressure on Moscow.
Internationally, Putin has found Russia isolated like never before. Kazakhstan refused his request for troops. Only Belarus, North Korea, Syria and Myanmar have voiced their open support while most of the rest of the world has voiced their undivided support for Ukraine in the face of naked aggression.
This support has manifested itself in numerous ways. Foreign volunteers are seeping in, drawn by the classic cause of David vs. Goliath. Meanwhile, NATO has been plowing supplies, intelligence and weapons into Ukraine.
Putin had some success in sowing doubt into the continued purpose of NATO over the years but all his efforts were undone by his choice to invade. NATO membership has been catapulted to the forefront of Finland and Sweden's domestic political scene.
Financially, Russia has been cut off from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) while the stock market and ruble had dropped dramatically in value. Europe's airspace has been closed to Russian planes.
Within Fortress Russia, it has found itself under cyberattack from the collective Anonymous while nightly protests have been breaking out in Russia and Belarus. Russian resources are stretched thin. I think Putin's ability to make others wield the lash on his behalf and the average citizen's fear of the lash are dissipating.
Putin, the supposed mastermind of geopolitics, went all in with his two high cards while his opponents were accurately calling his hand by broadcasting the date of the invasion to the world.
I don't see a viable way out of this for him. Dictators and tyrants must always have success and the minute setbacks are suffered, the knives begin to come out.
At this point, Russia will remain a pariah until the end of Putin's life. He either doubles down on levels of terror and repression unseen since Stalin's times to retain his throne or certain political players dispose of him if he's lucky or hand him over to face war crimes. The latter option gives Russia the ability to save some face and say it was all the workings of a mad man. Sadly, Russian history is all too filled with such men.
Hopefully, a prosperous Ukraine will arise in the aftermath. If Ukraine survives its trial by fire, it will undoubtedly be poised to gain membership to the EU and NATO as it continues its quest towards democracy, rule of law and economic freedom. It's a path it should encourage its brother nation to the east to follow.
What's paramount here is that when it's all said and done- the Russian people aren't held responsible. America won the Cold War but failed to consolidate that victory the way it did in Germany and Japan. The average Russian citizen underwent years of hardship in the 90's- and many- not without reason, felt they were kicked while they were down. This helped pave way for the rise of Putin.
When it's all said and done, the hand of friendship should be extended to the Russian people for the small price of pulling back from lands seized by force under Putin's Empire. Putin's New Empire was built on even ricketier foundations than Soviet Russia so it's imploding even faster. At this point, what other option does Russia have?
Alex Gratzek (ajgratzek@gmail.com) is an American who has lived, studied and worked in South Korea. Check his website at alexfromabroad.com. The views expressed in the above article are the author's own and do not reflect the editorial direction of The Korea Times.
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Everything which has unfolded so far has been botched and frankly I don't see a way for him to recover. I suspect his days as czar are numbered as the people realize the emperor has no clothes. Let's dive in.
First, the vaunted Russian Army has shown itself to be a paper tiger. Previous successes in Georgia (2008), Crimea (2014) and Syria (2015) had given credence to the idea that the lumbering Soviet Army Putin had inherited had become a modernized, professional, motivated force.
Keep in mind Saddam Hussein remained in power after the First Gulf War because his elite units remained intact. The paratroopers were anticipating supporting columns from Belarus. However, they were composed of conscripts who made limited headway due to stiff resistance and logistical issues. Many of these columns have been destroyed and some appear to have been abandoned intact.
The takeaway? The average Russian soldier's morale is abysmally low while the paratroopers and 5th columnists have found themselves destroyed when they make an appearance.
Recently, Russian forces had been used to put down unrest against pro-Kremlin leaders in Belarus and Kazakhstan. Maybe Putin was delusional enough to think Ukraine would be a similar cakewalk with welcoming crowds.
Even if the Russian soldiers bought into the propaganda emanating from the Kremlin, their reception on the ground has quickly revealed such deceptions. Ukrainian civilians have been taking down road signs, cursing Russians and trying to block tanks a la Tankman at Tiananmen Square in 1989.
You can't mistake their displeasure. Fifth columnists and saboteurs ― traditional assets Russia had used to maintain plausible deniability ― have had their activities negated by a vigilant Ukrainian society.
That leads into one of Putin's gravest misreads. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected in 2019 with nearly 73 percent of the vote. That was an astounding number considering previous elections had been bitterly divided between candidates representing Western and Eastern Ukraine.
It's not hard to fathom that Putin truly believed Zelenskyy could only have achieved such a high percentage of the vote as an installed Western puppet.
Russia always liked to think of Ukraine as a brother nation but the crucible of war will create a sense of national identity that Moscow has always pushed back against.
The idea of medieval Kievan Rus' looms large in the minds of Kremlin leaders in the terms of political legitimacy and its symbolism as the capital of the first Rus state. If today's Kyiv can pivot to a Western orientation, it puts tremendous pressure on Moscow.
Internationally, Putin has found Russia isolated like never before. Kazakhstan refused his request for troops. Only Belarus, North Korea, Syria and Myanmar have voiced their open support while most of the rest of the world has voiced their undivided support for Ukraine in the face of naked aggression.
This support has manifested itself in numerous ways. Foreign volunteers are seeping in, drawn by the classic cause of David vs. Goliath. Meanwhile, NATO has been plowing supplies, intelligence and weapons into Ukraine.
Putin had some success in sowing doubt into the continued purpose of NATO over the years but all his efforts were undone by his choice to invade. NATO membership has been catapulted to the forefront of Finland and Sweden's domestic political scene.
Financially, Russia has been cut off from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) while the stock market and ruble had dropped dramatically in value. Europe's airspace has been closed to Russian planes.
Within Fortress Russia, it has found itself under cyberattack from the collective Anonymous while nightly protests have been breaking out in Russia and Belarus. Russian resources are stretched thin. I think Putin's ability to make others wield the lash on his behalf and the average citizen's fear of the lash are dissipating.
Putin, the supposed mastermind of geopolitics, went all in with his two high cards while his opponents were accurately calling his hand by broadcasting the date of the invasion to the world.
I don't see a viable way out of this for him. Dictators and tyrants must always have success and the minute setbacks are suffered, the knives begin to come out.
At this point, Russia will remain a pariah until the end of Putin's life. He either doubles down on levels of terror and repression unseen since Stalin's times to retain his throne or certain political players dispose of him if he's lucky or hand him over to face war crimes. The latter option gives Russia the ability to save some face and say it was all the workings of a mad man. Sadly, Russian history is all too filled with such men.
Hopefully, a prosperous Ukraine will arise in the aftermath. If Ukraine survives its trial by fire, it will undoubtedly be poised to gain membership to the EU and NATO as it continues its quest towards democracy, rule of law and economic freedom. It's a path it should encourage its brother nation to the east to follow.
What's paramount here is that when it's all said and done- the Russian people aren't held responsible. America won the Cold War but failed to consolidate that victory the way it did in Germany and Japan. The average Russian citizen underwent years of hardship in the 90's- and many- not without reason, felt they were kicked while they were down. This helped pave way for the rise of Putin.
When it's all said and done, the hand of friendship should be extended to the Russian people for the small price of pulling back from lands seized by force under Putin's Empire. Putin's New Empire was built on even ricketier foundations than Soviet Russia so it's imploding even faster. At this point, what other option does Russia have?
Alex Gratzek (ajgratzek@gmail.com) is an American who has lived, studied and worked in South Korea. Check his website at alexfromabroad.com. The views expressed in the above article are the author's own and do not reflect the editorial direction of The Korea Times.
