Will Ahn's gamble succeed this time?

Independent lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo, left, holds hands with a senior citizen while doing a volunteer at a restaurant in his constituency of Nowon, northern Seoul , Friday. / Yonhap

By Kang Seung-woo

Ahn Cheol-soo has again made moves that could bring significant changes to the political landscape.

Throughout most of three years after he suddenly emerged as a strong presidential candidate, Ahn was a nonfactor in the New Politics Alliance for Democracy (NPAD) -- now the Minjoo Party of Korea (MPK).

During the 2012 presidential campaign, Ahn gave up his bid to back Moon Jae-in, who lost the presidency to Park Geun-hye by a small margin.

However, since quitting the party that he co-founded in March 2014, Ahn, a software mogul-turned-politician, is making solid gains, heralding a bright outlook for 2016, when the nation will hold a general election in April.

According to a Realmeter poll last week, Ahn ranks third among potential candidates after MPK Chairman Moon Jae-in and ruling Saenuri Party Chairman Kim Moo-sung, but within a margin of error.

Moon and Kim had 17.6 percent and 17.1 percent support respectively, with Ahn at 16.5 percent.

In addition, Ahn’s new party, which will be launched by early February, has already drawn an approval rating of 19 percent, up 2.7 percentage points from a week earlier, compared with the Saenuri’s 37.2 percent and the MPK’s 22.4 percent.

Another survey by R and Search, Thursday, showed that, Ahn, who is seeking to launch a new party based in the MPK’s stronghold, the Honam region, led Moon by 11.8 percentage points -- 26.4 percent to 14.6 percent. The Honam region consists of North and South Jeolla provinces.

“Ahn has gained more public support than expected. His political clout still appears to be weighty despite his quiet performance with the NPAD,” said Chung Goon-gi, a professor at Hongik University.

Bae Jong-chan, chief director at political pollster Research and Research, said, “Although Ahn’s new party has yet to be formed, it is already drawing support of nearly 20 percent. It means his party is expected to replace the MPK as the No. 1 opposition party in the Honam region.”

Since his departure, eight incumbents have also left the opposition side to join Ahn, including three from Gwangju.

More incumbent and former lawmakers from the MPK are strongly expected to join his new party, which aims to create a new political paradigm to end what Ahn says is old politics riddled with enmity and confrontation.

Ahn and his new party have the potential to emerge as a middle-of-the-road third party aligned between the conservative Saenuri Party and the liberal MPK in the upcoming general election, political analysts say.

“The Saenuri Party is right-wing and the MPK is left-wing, so Ahn will apparently take a centrist approach,” said Yoon Yeo-jun, Ahn’s political mentor and former environment minister under the Kim Young-sam administration.

“If he is not buried in ideology and seeks measures to improve the people’s livelihood, he and his party will be able to show a solid performance in the general election.”

Bae said, “Although Ahn resigned from the MPK, his high popularity reflects the public’s weariness with the existing political parties, which have people believe have failed them.

“In addition, his support base is mainly comprised of those in their 40s, but he also appeals to those aged from the 20s to the 60s.”

However, some still remain skeptical about whether Ahn’s strong advocacy of a middle way will prove viable in Korean politics.

“It will not be easy for Ahn to usher in the arrival of a moderate party, breaking decades of bipartisanship,” said Chung.

“Ahn’s vision of new politics is still devoid of clear purpose, as well.”

One opposition lawmaker said, “Although Ahn is popular in the Honam region, the region has historically tended to support the main opposition party in elections when the opposition is split.”

For Ahn to remain popular until the general election, analysts say that he needs to recruit new faces conforming to his pursuit of the middle-of-the-road political spectrum.

“It will not be enough to just recruit his old party members, which is not a vision of new politics,” said Chung.

“In addition, he needs to back up the obscure political vision, while proposing a reformative yet detailed vision and policies to voters.”

Bae said, “Whether he will become the eye of storm or a storm in a teacup depends on how he will successfully carry out follow-up measures that meet the demands of voters disappointed with the opposition.

“In short, he should show how his politics differ from the established politics.”