Aunt, niece poised for power struggle over succession in North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's sister Kim Yo-jong declares victory in her country's battle against COVID-19 during a meeting with health care workers in Pyongyang in this 2022 file photo. Yonhap

'The Sister' depicts North Korean leader's sister as a realistic candidate to succeed Kim Jong-un

By Kang Hyun-kyung

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's daughter Ju-ae has drawn media frenzy since she was first spotted on November 18, 2022 when she was with her father at the launch site of the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile.

The plump little girl, believed to be born in 2013, has since been at the center of media attention whenever accompanying her father at major national or military events. Her public appearance has generated much buzz, sparking speculations over whether she is Kim Jong-un's heir apparent.

Ju-ae is the second female member of North Korea's ruling Kim family to make international headlines, following her aunt Kim Yo-jong who is notorious for her fiery and strongly worded statements.

Aunt Kim made a stunning diplomatic debut in 2018 when she visited South Korea as her brother's emissary to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics. She stole the show. Her uniquely snobbish attitude and connection with Kim Jong-un came under wide media scrutiny.

Little is known about the relationship between the aunt and her niece.

But, a political scientist said that their ties may turn sour in the event Kim Jong-un becomes incapacitated.

Lee Sung-yoon, professor of Korean Studies at Tufts University / Courtesy of Lee Sung-yoon

Lee Sung-yoon, a professor of Korean Studies at Tufts University in the United States, did not rule out a possible power struggle over succession in North Korea.

"As for the prospects of a power struggle between Ju-ae and Yo-jong, the latter is far better poised to deal with it than her child niece," he said in a recent email interview with The Korea Times.

Lee is an expert on North Korea's leadership. His new book, titled "The Sister" published by Pan Macmillan, will be officially released on June 15 in the United Kingdom.

In the book, Lee tracks the rise of the North Korean leader's sister since her father's sudden death in December 2011.

He claimed Kim Yo-jong, who has served as North Korea's chief propagandist since 2014, is "far better prepared" for the leadership than her brother was in 2011 following their father's death from cardiac arrest.

"Even if Kim Jong-un has decided his daughter is his most suitable successor, it will be some time before she grows into adulthood and is able, like Aunt Yo-jong, to issue formal statements in her own name or lead a delegation to Seoul or a foreign country," he said.

The cover of "The Sister" published by Pan Macmillan

Based on extensive research of media reports, research papers and books about North Korea, as well as interviews with experts, Lee follows Kim Yo-jong from childhood to her rise as a propagandist for the regime.

"The Sister" is thought-provoking.

The political scientist attempts to delve into the mind of Kim Yo-jong regarding leadership succession and how her presence can reshape North Korea's political scene after Kim Jong-un.

"In the event of such a sudden power transition, whether North Korea's first female supreme leader chooses to settle for the role of regent until her nephew or niece comes of age, or decides to rule for life ― the rest of her life and for her own life ― is a question to which there is no clear answer," the book reads.

Questions over Kim Yo-jong's choice in the hypothetical situation remain unanswered, mainly because of learned experience of what happened in North Korea in the previous succession process.

Kim Yo-jong witnessed the tragic fate of her uncle, Jang Song-taek who served as caretaker for Kim Jong-un in his early years in leadership but was brutally removed from the post, according to Lee.

It is a chilling reminder of the risks Yo-jong could face in case she remains as a caretaker for her niece, rather than a ruler of her country.

"The wrathful nipping winter of 2013 could give her sobering pause for thought: Kim Jong-un's uncle, Jang Song-thaek, had served as the new, young supreme leader's regent for the previous two years, but that winter his utility and life together expired," Lee's book reads.

"Suddenly accused of being a traitorous counter-revolutionary, and also guilty of clapping half-heartedly at his nephew's formal events, Jang was stripped of all his titles and executed ― at the same time as which, or some after, the process of digitally removing him from articles and photos was completed."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, front row right, shares a laugh with his daughter Ju-ae during a banquet to celebrate North Korea's Military Foundation Day, Feb. 9. Yonhap

Lee remains skeptical about the possibility of Kim Ju-ae rising to power in the event her father is incapacitated.

"Even in the profoundly weird political setting of the DPRK, an 11-year-old, pre-pubescent girl emerging as the supreme leader is an absurdity that cannot be tolerated," he said.

The DPRK stands for the Democratic Republic of Korea, the official name of North Korea.

"What would Ju-ae be able to do? Head a DPRK delegation to Seoul or abroad as her aunt Kim Yo-jong has? Receive a foreign delegation? ... You'll recall that even her dad, in spite of intensive leadership training, appeared nervous and amateurish at his first public speech in April 2012," Lee said.

In the event of a sudden power transition, Lee claimed that North Korea has no other option but Kim Yo-jong for its leadership. "There is simply no leader of the Mount Paektu Bloodline who can assume the royal leadership other than Kim Yo-jong," he said.

The Mount Paektu Bloodline refers to the direct descendants of North Korea's founder Kim Il-sung, the grandfather of Kim Jong-un.

Kim Jong-un is in his late 30s and appears to be fully in control.

Despite his tight grip on the totalitarian state, mainly through fear politics and brutal repression of North Korean residents' human rights, people outside of North Korea continue to speculate about who will rule the impoverished state next.

The current leader's family history of cardiovascular problems plays a part in the continued speculation about a sudden change in the North's leadership.

His father, Kim Jong-il, and grandfather, Kim Il-sung, both died of sudden cardiac arrest. Kim Jong-il died of a heart attack in December 2011 while traveling outside of Pyongyang on a train. His grandfather also died of a heart attack in July 1994, two weeks before a scheduled inter-Korean summit with then-South Korean President Kim Young-sam.

On top of his family health history, Kim Jong-un's health is another reason behind media speculation about a sudden change in the North.

TV footage shows that Kim has gained significant weight since rising to power in 2011.

Rep. Yoo Sang-bum of the ruling People Power Party said Kim's weight is believed to be over 140 kilograms based on an estimate by artificial intelligence.

"Kim is believed to suffer from a severe sleep disorder and increased dependence on alcohol and nicotine as massive amounts of foreign cigarettes and alcoholic beverages are shipped into North Korea," he told reporters last week after attending a meeting between members of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee and the National Intelligence Service.