[ANALYSIS] Seoul-Tokyo detente to impact Fukushima water issue

Tanks (in gray, beige and blue) store water that was treated but is still radioactive after it was used to cool down spent fuel at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Okuma town, Fukushima Prefecture, northeastern Japan, Feb. 27, 2021. AP-Yonhap

Yoon aims to put Seoul's nuclear energy initiatives back on track by resolving radioactive water issue with Tokyo

By Kim Yoo-chul

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made a gesture of sympathy toward South Koreans forced into various forms of industrial slavery during Japan's past aggression on the Korean Peninsula, on the sidelines of his recent visit to Seoul for a summit with President Yoon Suk Yeol. This came as the leaders of the two countries committed to expanding areas of cooperation in the face of North Korea's evolving nuclear threats and other challenges.

This clear sign of detente between Seoul and Tokyo ― the idea of which was initially floated and executed by President Yoon in announcing his administration's controversial policy on compensating South Korean survivors of wartime forced labor ― is also drawing mixed and bitter reactions here.

Unsurprisingly, the country's main opposition Democratic Party of Korea, which holds a majority in the National Assembly, didn't accept Kishida's comments, and accused Yoon of letting Japan off the hook over its past wrongdoings while pushing to restore bilateral relations.

But as Washington wants Seoul-Tokyo relations unfettered from historical disputes in order to keep an open Indo-Pacific region amid its high-profile contest with Beijing, security experts say better South Korea-Japan ties will raise the ceiling higher.

Officials in Washington view the political polarization in South Korea as a risk factor because a different administration could reverse outcomes and agreements signed earlier, according to Scott A. Snyder, director of the U.S.-Korea Policy Program at the New York-headquartered think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). He added that it was desirable for both South Korean and Japanese policymakers to create sustainable rather than reversible solutions regarding issues between them.

After the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan initially committed to phasing out nuclear power, but it reversed the plan, deciding instead to extend the lifespan of its nuclear power plants. The Japanese government is apparently seeking to win backing from the G7 countries for its plans on handling the water and land contaminated from the triple meltdown at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Japan is the host country for the G7 summit, holding it in Hiroshima later this month.

Members of South Korean opposition parties and civic groups stage a rally outside the National Assembly in Seoul, May 4, to denounce a planned visit by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. President Yoon Suk Yeol hosted Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, May 7, in their second summit since March. The signs read "We oppose the release of contaminated water from Fukushima and demand an apology and compensation." AP-Yonhap

"As the current Yoon administration reversed the previous Moon administration's nuclear phase-out policy, based on warming Seoul-Tokyo ties, President Yoon is expected to highlight why nuclear energy cooperation between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo matters the most in terms of developing advanced reactors and strengthening the nuclear energy supply chain," a senior aide to former President Moon who is familiar with the issue said on condition of anonymity.

The aide stressed that Kishida is situated to win substantial backing from Japan's key allies to justify its policy transition toward endorsing nuclear energy by using this month's G7 gathering to highlight the safety of the planned discharge of the radioactive water from the damaged plant.

Relevant actions are already underway, with Japan deciding to allow South Korean experts to inspect the contaminated water. The inspection team will include highly qualified experts, first deputy chief of the Office for Government Policy Coordination Park Ku-yeon said in a press briefing last week.

But civilian experts or representatives from civic groups are highly unlikely to be included on the inspection team. Plus, Japanese Trade and Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura has clarified the purpose of the inspection team's visit to the Fukushima plant as one to "deepen understanding" in South Korea of the safety of the water release and was "not to certify or evaluate the safety of the treated water."

Within a similar context, lawmakers of South Korea's ruling People Power Party are set to stress the necessity of referring to the irradiated water as "treated" rather than "contaminated."

Washington's aim to strengthen supply chain in nuclear energy

Despite opposition from China and environmental groups such as Greenpeace over the plan to dump the radioactive water into the ocean, Japan vowed to proceed as scheduled citing consent from the International Atomic Energy Agency, and insisting the discharge plan meets global standards and "won't cause any harm to the environment."

"But this issue is about more than that. Amid growing geopolitical risks, the possibility of global fuel shortages and China's pursuit to become the world's largest nuclear reactor builder, there are national security concerns regarding China and even Russia's possible dominance of the global nuclear energy market. Cooperation on nuclear energy with South Korea and Japan, the U.S.' two important East Asian allies, will secure and advance Washington's interests," said Jo Yong-seong, a professor of food and resources economics at Korea University.

President Yoon Suk Yeol shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during a joint press conference after their meeting at the presidential office in Seoul, May 7. AP-Yonhap

Washington's like-minded allies in East Asia including Taiwan are already backing the Joe Biden administration's initiatives for supply chain resilience in semiconductors and batteries, with Samsung, SK, LG Energy Solution becoming the top recipients of massive financial subsidy programs. Because of this, it's very likely the U.S. may ask South Korea and Japan to make a combined investment in the latest reactor development, shared use of existing facilities and exchanges of nuclear material and equipment and the construction of new reactors.

"Nuclear energy cooperation with the U.S.' allies has been important for over half a century and continues to this day. However, nuclear energy is witnessing challenges in some of these nations," said Matt Bowen, a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy, citing the former Moon administration's nuclear phase-out policy in South Korea and Japan's recovery from the Fukushima disaster.

"China and Russia are growing their nuclear energy programs and offering attractive financing to prospective customer nations. Given the new imperatives of climate change and rising competition from Russia and China, the U.S. can and should pursue deepened cooperation with its allies to help demonstrate innovative new reactor concepts that improve nuclear safety and competitiveness," Bowen said in a recent analysis.

The Yoon administration lowered its target for carbon emission cuts to 11.4 percent from 14.5 percent, saying the administration will put more focus on plans to sustain the nuclear energy ecosystem. A nuclear phase-out policy could lead to the rapid rise of electricity bills, a possibly potential energy shortage and the decline of the country's nuclear reactors export capacity. The rationale of a pro-nuclear phase-out policy is that safety and outstanding environmental concerns should be considered as the top priorities.

"How to better manage nuclear energy cooperation will be one of the top issues to be discussed at this month's G7 meeting in Hiroshima, because this is an issue that should be assessed from a national security standpoint. Therefore, the recent Seoul-Tokyo detente will have a visible impact on the South Korean inspection team's planned visit," a government official said.

The inspection team will be briefed on the details of the wastewater storage tanks and the latest progress of construction of the equipment to be used for dumping the water. The water has been stored in over 1,000 tanks at the Fukushima site after going through a treatment system that removes most radioactive materials except tritium, according to Japanese officials.

President Yoon told Japanese lawmakers that his administration will try to seek public understanding on Tokyo's plan to release the water into the sea, diplomatic sources said.