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By Donald Kirk
WASHINGTON ― We don't have to be told how disappointing the Chinese as moderators or hosts in negotiations are. The failure of the six-party talks on North Korea, run by China from 2003 to 2007, should be enough to convince anyone that talks hosted by Beijing will go nowhere.
Now the Chinese are intimating that they would make a great choice to run talks for settling the war in Ukraine. Remembering the failure of the six-party talks years ago, we can be sure China as moderator of Ukraine talks would guarantee disappointment at best, betrayal at worst.
The Chinese, to be sure, did not openly say they should play a major role in negotiations for a deal on Ukraine. Rather, in a 12-point proposal put out by Beijing, China offered to play a "constructive" role in bringing about the end of the war. That suggestion signaled China's dream of appearing as an honest broker, the peacemaker, bringing about a ceasefire in a conflict that has already taken at least 100,000 lives.
Chinese intervention in the quest for an end to the war would serve no purpose other than to project China as a player in a region in which the Chinese have had little or no influence. China, as moderator, would be sure to tilt the talks in favor of Russia despite China's claims of neutrality. Pointedly, China's proposal for ending the war says nothing about the need for Russian forces to withdraw from territory they've already overrun.
The best that may be said for Beijing's proposal is that it would seem quite difficult for China to sell weapons to the Russians while pretending to want to negotiate a solution. Here too, however, we cannot be sure the Chinese are not using their proposal as a cover for making a deal with the Russians. China would not have to sell basic weapons to Russia to keep Putin happy. He would gladly accept machinery for Russia's arms industry. High-tech equipment would be useful.
The Chinese record as moderator of six-party talks on Korea should provide a warning. While hosting talks on getting North Korea to give up its nuclear program, China made sure to keep supplying the North with virtually all its oil while shipping products needed to enable the North to arm and equip its military establishment of 1.2 million troops. Nor did China persuade North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-il, father of the current leader, Kim Jong-un, to put his nuclear program on hold. The talks ended soon after North Korea conducted its first underground nuclear test in October 2006.
By hosting six-party talks, China was able to assert its authority over both Koreas, as in the era of the 500-year Yi dynasty when Korean kings paid obeisance to Chinese rulers. While keeping North Korea on life support, China also emerged as South Korea's biggest trading partner. South Korean leaders are reluctant to offend China despite the South's historic alliance with the United States. President Yoon Suk Yeol may advocate intensified joint exercises with the Americans, but he would not want to join in defending Taiwan, the island province to whose freedom the Americans are committed against a Chinese attack.
As host of talks on Ukraine, China would be in quite a different position. Looking for commercial opportunities, the Chinese could turn the talks into a device for penetrating the regions surrounding Ukraine both commercially and diplomatically. China, importing oil and natural gas from Russia, could strike great deals with the Russians, who would want in effect to bribe the Chinese into almost openly pro-Russian "neutrality." The Chinese would also hope to expand commercial contacts throughout eastern Europe even as Putin sought to fulfill his vision of a Russian empire matching that of the former Soviet Union.
Just as important, by encouraging if not moderating talks on Ukraine, the Chinese could play western European nations, banded together in NATO, led by the Americans, against the Russians. The job of honest broker would give the Chinese an upper hand where now they are secondary if not marginal players.
Nor would China's President Xi Jinping mind if the war drags on and on, bogging the Americans down, and distracting them from challenging Chinese claims to the South China Sea as well as Taiwan. China would support Russia's aims, guaranteeing no loss of territory in a deal that would leave Ukraine substantially weaker than before the Russian invasion.
The Russians, with the Chinese looking on, could consolidate their gains and go on to wage another war. As "honest broker," the Chinese could be sure the Russians would reward them handsomely for playing a role that cost them nothing.
Donald Kirk (www.donaldkirk.com) writes from Washington as well as Seoul.
