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| South Korean military and the United States Forces in Korea conduct drills employing the remote launcher of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in this photo provided by the USFK, Friday. Yonhap |
Beijing has limited options to retaliate against Seoul's move: experts
By Lee Hyo-jin
The South Korean government is speeding up steps to turn a U.S. anti-missile battery deployed here into a permanent installation.
The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, capable of intercepting incoming ballistic missiles, was deployed in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province in 2017, to deter North Korea's nuclear and missile threats.
But the anti-missile system remains as a temporary installation due to fierce backlash from China, as well as residents of Seongju. China claims that THAAD's radar can be used to spy on its military maneuvers, while residents of the southeastern town are concerned about environmental impacts.
On Friday, South Korea's Ministry of Defense and the U.S. Forces in Korea (USFK) said they recently held joint drills employing a THAAD remote launcher. It was the first such exercise since the anti-missile battery was deployed here, according to the military, Friday.
"In the face of DPRK's advanced missile threats, the training of our THAAD forces enhanced the units' combat readiness, combined defense posture within the alliance, demonstrates the ironclad commitment to support and defend the ROK, and further strengthens the security and stability on the Korean Peninsula," the USFK said in a statement. ROK stands for South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea. The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) is the official name of North Korea.
The government is anticipated to take steps to turn the THAAD base into a permanent installation as early as July, when the Ministry of Environment is expected to draw conclusions on its ongoing environmental impact assessments.
Once the environment ministry gives the green light, the U.S. army will be allowed to initiate a process of building infrastructure and facilities for the THAAD base.
While concerns are rising that Seoul's moves may draw fierce protests from Beijing, analysts viewed that China now has fewer retaliatory options compared to the ones it had in 2017, considering its economic slowdown and escalating competition with Washington.
"China will increase threats as the [South] Korean government continues to turn the THAAD unit into a permanent base, but it is unlikely to impose stronger sanctions than the ones we've seen in 2017," said Kang Joon-young, a professor of Chinese studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.
"Amid escalating rivalry with the U.S., China seems to be less willing to become enemies with its neighboring countries. And North Korea's evolving nuclear threats justify the South Korean government's rationale for pursuing stronger self-defense," he added.
Lee Dong-gyu, a research fellow at Asan Institute for Policy Studies, echoed the sentiment, saying, "As the U.S. increases its influence in Northeast Asia through trilateral cooperation with South Korea and Japan, retaliating against Seoul over THAAD could be counterproductive to China's own strategic interests."
"Plus, China's economy is currently experiencing a major crisis, so it would be hesitant to roll out economic sanctions on its neighboring country."
But at the same time, Lee stressed that South Korea should remain vigilant about possible retaliation from China, and thus keep putting more effort into reminding Beijing that the defensive weapon system is neither designed nor capable of threating its security interests.
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| The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (TTHAD battery in Seongju is seen in this Sept. 23, 2022 photo. Korea Times photo by Ryu Su-hyeon |
When THAAD was first deployed on Korean soil, Beijing viewed it as a threat to its security and sovereignty, and responded with massive economic sanctions on Seoul, as well as a tacit ban on South Korean entertainment content.
The residents in the southeastern city, for their part, have been strongly opposing the deployment citing possible damage to people's health and the environment.
Against this backdrop, the previous Moon Jae-in administration came up with the so-called "Three Nos" policy to mend ties with China. The policy refers to no additional deployments of THAAD batteries, no South Korean integration into a U.S.-led regional missile defense system and no trilateral alliance with the U.S. and Japan.
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