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Sun, March 26, 2023 | 05:59
World
Conflict in Taiwan Strait feared to provoke N. Korea
대만해협 긴장 고조, 북한 도발 우려돼
Posted : 2022-10-07 17:19
Updated : 2022-10-07 17:19
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Some US protectionist policies like IRA undermine Biden's 'friend-shoring' initiatives
인플레이션 감축법(IRA)와 같은 미국의 보호주의 정책, 바이든의 프렌드쇼어링 계획 약화시켜


By Kim Yoo-chul

Tensions across the Taiwan Strait are now at the highest level in years, raising concerns that any unexpected policy mistake by either side risks dragging the United States into a potential direct military confrontation with China.
양국의 예상치 못한 정책 실수로 인해 미국이 중국과 직접적으로 군사적 대립을 할 우려가 증가하며 대만해협을 둔 긴장감이 몇 년 만에 최고조에 달했다.


Since the previous Moon Jae-in administration, South Korea's stance towards the issue of the Taiwan Strait hasn't changed much, because the incumbent Yoon Suk-yeol administration has also indicated its stance of favoring the United States over China when it comes to cross-Strait issue, which political analysts view as a departure from Seoul's longtime stance of ambiguity.
지난 문재인 정부 이후 현재 윤석열 정부도 양국의 문제에 대해서는 중국보다 미국을 우대한다는 입장을 보여 대만해협 문제에 대한 한국의 입장은 유지되고 있는데, 이를 두고 정치 분석가들은 오래 지속된 한국의 모호한 입장에서 벗어난 것이라고 분석했다.


Clearly, unlike the North Korean nuclear issue, when it comes to the Taiwan Strait, South Korea's political elites and mainstream media have yet to show a high level of attention as the issue is mainly being raised by security experts.
북핵 문제와 달리 대만해협에 관한 문제 제기는 안보 전문가들을 중심으로 이루어지고 있어 한국의 정치 전문가 및 주류 언론은 아직 이 문제에 큰 관심을 보이지는 않고 있다.


While this is understandable given Seoul's limited position, however, there are some possibilities of the North finding the diversion of Washington's attention to the Strait as a chance for more military provocations against the South.
한국의 제한된 입장을 감안하면 이해 가능한 상황이지만, 미국의 대만해협으로의 관심 분산을 북한이 한국에 대한 더 많은 군사적 도발의 기회로 삼을 가능성도 있다.


As a move to show off its position of strength, North Korea is set to conduct another nuclear test next month at the earliest, said U.S. security experts and intelligence sources in South Korea. North Korea conducted six nuclear tests between 2006 and 2017. On a related note, the Biden administration responded heavily to the North's latest long-range ballistic missile launched over Japan and landing in the Pacific Ocean.
미국 안보 전문가와 한국의 정보 소식통은 북한이 위력을 과시하기 위한 조치로 이르면 다음 달에 다시 핵실험을 할 예정이라고 전했다. 북한은 2006년부터 2017년까지 총 6번의 핵실험을 진행했다. 이와 관련해 바이든 행정부는 최근 북한이 일본 상공에서 발사해 태평양에 착륙한 장거리 탄도미사일에 대해 강도 높게 대응했다.


The key question is if the conflict in the Taiwan Strait deepens further, could the situation touch off a complicated situation on the Korean Peninsula because of Seoul's backing of Washington on the issue?
중요한 질문은 대만해협 내 갈등이 심화될 경우 이 문제에 대해 한국이 미국을 지지하고 있기 때문에 한반도에 복잡한 상황이 촉발될 것인가이다.


"In the case of a major conflict between China and Taiwan, it is possible that North Korea could escalate against South Korea while the international community (and potentially the United States) are focused on the Taiwan Strait," Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), who previously served on staff at the National Security Council and the Department of State, said in a recent interview with The Korea Times.
미국 국가안전 보장회의 및 미국 국무부에서 근무한 잭 쿠퍼 미국 기업연구소(AEI) 선임 연구원은 최근 코리아타임스와의 인터뷰에서 "중국과 대만 간의 주요 갈등의 경우 (잠재적으로 미국과) 국제 사회가 대만해협에 관심을 갖는 동안 북한이 한국에 대한 위협을 강화할 가능성이 있다"고 전했다.


Citing the Yoon administration's U.S.-favoring stance towards the Taiwan Strait issue, Cooper said South Korea and the United States should be prepared for potential contingencies.
대만해협 문제를 두고 미국에 우호적인 입장을 취하는 윤 정부를 언급한 쿠퍼 연구원은 한국과 미국이 만일의 사태에 대비해야 한다고 전했다.


"I suspect that U.S. ground forces in Korea would remain focused on deterring North Korea, but U.S. air and naval forces might be tasked with multiple missions. Nonetheless, the high degree of proficiency of South Korea forces should give us confidence that the alliance would be able to respond to any provocation," added Cooper, an adjunct assistant professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University.
현재 조지타운 대학교 안보연구학과 겸임조교수로 근무하는 쿠퍼 연구원은 "주한미군의 육군은 북한 저지에 집중할 것이지만 미 공군과 해군은 여러 임무를 수행하게 될 수도 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고 고도로 숙련된 한국군은 이 동맹이 어떠한 도발에도 대응할 수 있다는 자신감을 준다"고 덧붙였다.


KEY WORDS
■ confrontation 대치, 대립
■ stance 입장[태도]
■ departure 벗어남[일탈]
■ ambiguity 애매(모호)한 상태
■ understandable 정상적인[당연한]; 이해할 수 있는
■ provocation 도발, 자극
■ ballistic 탄도학의
■ contingency 만일의 사태
■ deter 단념시키다
■ suspect 의심하다
■ naval 해군의
■ alliance 동맹, 연합
■ adjunct assistant professor 겸임 조교수

기사 원문 보기


Emailywjeon@ktimes.com Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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