When will COVID-19 pandemic die down?

How novel coronavirus differs from MERS, SARS

By Bahk Eun-ji

Kim So-ra, a 35-year-old office worker and mother of a four-year-old daughter, said she wonders when she and her daughter will be able to live without wearing masks.

"In the early stages of the outbreak, I thought it would last for two or three months, but now I sometimes wonder if we will end up living with it like the common cold," Kim said.

The health authorities here believe the country will soon face a second wave of COVID-19 although Korea has gained global attention for its prompt response to the ongoing pandemic, particularly in the early stages.

The pandemic began in Wuhan, China as a result of a mix of coronavirus strains commonly found in bats, and quickly found its way to humans who carried it not only to Korea but also around the world. Many now wonder when it will end as it has been almost six months since the first patient was confirmed to be infected here, Jan. 20.

At a press conference in Geneva, Friday, Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO's health emergencies program, said the world is unlikely to eradicate COVID-19 anytime soon. On Sunday, the WHO reported a record daily increase of 230,370 infections worldwide.

Difference from MERS, SARS

The main difference between the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that causes COVID-19 and other coronavirus variants is that it spreads faster. Experts have said vaccine development for COVID-19 is more urgent than other viruses because of its high contagiousness.

The government also said that eradicating the coronavirus will be difficult until a vaccine is developed, unlike the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), which caused a panic here in 2015.

There are no treatments or vaccines for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) or MERS, but they did not cause big problems and are not spreading widely anymore; there are no more confirmed cases of SARS, and MERS cases only now occur in Saudi Arabia and its nearby countries.

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On the other hand, COVID-19 is very different. It has been compared to the Spanish Flu (an H1N1 virus), which is estimated to have killed 50 million people worldwide in the 1910s.

After the first outbreak of the H1N1 virus in the summer of 1918, a larger second wave followed around the fall of the same year. Then a third wave came at the very beginning of 1919 that lasted into early March, before it subsided although it has been suggested that there was a fourth wave that happened during the winter of 1920.

Epidemiologists point out that both new drugs for treatment and vaccines for prevention are needed to end the pandemic.

"If only one is developed, the virus with such a high infectivity can never be contained," said Bang Ji-hwan, head of the National Medical Center Central Clinical Committee which is composed of medical practitioners who have been treating COVID-19 patients.

Vaccines are used to trigger the body's immune system to fight infections. They work by giving the body a small amount of an attenuated form of the virus so that it can produce antibodies that can fight the intruder. On the other hand, treatments are required for after someone has been infected to kill the disease. They help lessen the severity of the symptoms of patients who are infected with the virus and ultimately kill off the viral infection.

"In this regard, the development of both vaccine and treatment are important. Treatment can reduce mortality from the virus, and although it can't reduce the number of confirmed cases, a vaccine will," Bang said.

Vaccine development

Countries around the world including Korea have started developing COVID-19 vaccines and treatments, but it will take a long time to see any results.

"Although there were many confirmed cases of H1N1 flu, the crisis phase was naturally adjusted as a vaccine was developed," Yoon Tae-ho, head of the quarantine department at the Central Disaster Safety and Countermeasure Headquarters, said during a recent briefing. "We can't go back to our daily lives without taking any actions against the coronavirus, and vaccine development is one of them."

Since the beginning of May, the country has been mapping out a government-wide support system to find treatments and a vaccine to combat COVID-19. Many pinned their hopes on treating the virus with remdesivir, an antiviral medication developed by U.S. biopharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences. The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said it has been administering remdesivir to a number of COVID-19 patients from this month.

Although it is currently known as the most effective drug for the virus, the KCDC official said further monitoring is required to ascertain its efficacy.

"We need to take more time to see more tangible achievements when it comes to vaccine development," Yoon said.

Bracing for long battle

With the pandemic continuing for nearly half a year, the quarantine authorities have begun preparing for a long-term battle by organizing procedural systems and personnel.

"A central headquarters for virus responses will be established as a permanent organization as the pandemic is expected to be prolonged," said Sohn Young-rae, a spokesman at the Ministry of Health and Welfare.

"There have not been many new infectious diseases that have not been contained after a period of six months, but given the global situation and the opinions of various domestic experts, it is highly likely that the pandemic will continue."

"It's difficult to deal with the situation while putting aside all of the daily tasks undertaken at the health ministry, he continued. "In this regard, we need to restructure our organization by making the Central Disaster Safety and Countermeasure Task Force, which was originally established as a temporary organization, a permanent fixture," he said.