Local election results to decide fates of major party leaders

Rep. Jang Dong-hyeok, left, leader of the main opposition People Power Party, and Rep. Jung Chung-rae, leader of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea, sit next to each other for a Buddhist lighting event at the National Assembly, Seoul, April 30. Yonhap

The outcome of the local elections slated for Wednesday is decisive for each candidate. But it will also determine the political fate of major party leaders: Rep. Jung Chung-rae of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and Rep. Jang Dong-hyeok of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP).

While both leaders are likely to seek another term, a landslide victory for the DPK signals a boost for Jung not only as the party's leader but also as a potential presidential contender. For the PPP, Jang's ability to save face and keep his position will depend on the electoral success of PPP candidates in key regions, or at the very least, a smaller voter support gap between the two parties.

In the early phases of the elections, a landslide victory for the DPK has been widely anticipated, backed by the high approval ratings of President Lee Jae Myung and negative sentiment against the PPP following the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol. Yoon was sentenced to life for insurrection and treason tied to his martial law declaration in 2024. However, the PPP was able to solidify their conservative voter base, narrowing the gap in many regions.

Jung is tasked with maintaining the party's winning momentum, especially in key battlegrounds like Seoul, Busan and North Jeolla Province. However, signs are pointing to tight electoral races.

In the Seoul mayoral race, DPK candidate Chong Won-o, a three-term head of Seoul's Seongdong District and the president's handpicked candidate, was widely expected to win over incumbent Seoul Mayor and PPP candidate Oh Se-hoon. However, opinion polls showed a narrowing gap leading up to the elections, with latest polls placing the gap between the two's voter support within the margin of error.

For the by-election race in Busan’s Buk-A constituency, Jung invited former senior presidential secretary for artificial intelligence and future planning Ha Jung-woo to run for the parliamentary seat. Ha initially enjoyed high support rates until recent polls showed him coming behind conservative independent candidate Han Dong-hoon.

Another key battleground that the DPK leader cannot afford to lose is the gubernatorial race in North Jeolla Province. A longtime stronghold for liberals, losing the position there is considered a crucial defeat for the party leadership.

However, the win of independent candidate Kim Kwan-young, incumbent North Jeolla Province governor and former DPK member, is largely expected. Kim was ousted from the DPK on May 1 over allegations he gave money to his supporters and party members. Rep. Lee Won-taeg of the DPK is competing against Kim, but the gap has been widening ever since.

The DPK losing these key posts under Jung may fuel ouster plans against the party leader, according to Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University.

“The fate of Jung’s leadership depends on winning in the key regions including Seoul and Busan. To be specific, the definition of 'winning' for the DPK is to win the entire Jeolla region. For now, it is unlikely,” Shin said.

“For the non-Jung faction within the DPK, an election defeat in the Jeolla region would provide the leverage to oust Jung from the party leadership.”

However, political critic Rhee Jong-hoon expects Jung to be replaced regardless of the election results. Jung, according to Rhee, is seen as a risk among pro-Lee party members given that the DPK leader's reform pushes often conflict with those of Cheong Wa Dae.

“Lee Jae Myung supporters within the DPK would use the election results to oust Jung regardless of the election results. They consider the conflicts between the party and the presidential office a big risk and will corner Jung to step down from the post using the election results as leverage,” Rhee said.

Meanwhile, the PPP leader has focused heavily on winning over far-right voters, many of whom are hardline Yoon loyalists. However, this strategy has drawn sharp criticism from even within the conservative party, where many view it as a primary factor alienating moderate voters.

Ahead of the elections, internal rifts within the party deepened as the Jang-led party leadership expelled Han, a former PPP leader and justice minister, in January over allegations that his family members criticized Yoon on an internal party bulletin board.

Han is now running in the Busan Buk-A by-election as an independent candidate against Ha and PPP candidate Rep Park Min-shik. Latest polls showed Han enjoying the highest support among the candidates, far outpacing Park, increasing the chance of the PPP losing conservative voters and the region. If the PPP candidate loses — especially if defeated by the expelled former leader — it would deal a blow for Jang who led Han's expulsion.

Jang also came into conflict with high-profile candidates, including the incumbent Seoul mayor, who demanded that Jang clearly sever ties with Yoon. Oh had said that maintaining ties with Yoon will chase away moderate voters. The conflicts were eventually resolved, but the candidates have been refusing Jang's appearance at their campaign rallies.

However, critics believe Jang will be able to hold on to his position regardless of the electoral outcome, owing to Yoon's hardline supporters within the party.

“In normal cases, if a party leadership loses a major election, it does not stay in power. Instead, the leadership steps down, and the party is temporarily run by an emergency leadership committee … For the PPP, however, Jang will keep his position. Since a significant portion of the PPP’s base consists of hardliners, or Yoon supporters, if Jang continues to satisfy them, he will likely be able to maintain his position just as he has done so far,” Rhee said.

“Jang is expected to claim he is not responsible for the defeat and to retain his leadership. This move also favors the pro-Yoon faction and so-called 'shy Yoon' supporters within the party, who are eager to preserve their influence ahead of the general election scheduled for 2028.”