The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
  • World Expo 2030
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
  • Hangzhou Asian Games
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_X_on_2023.svgbt_X_over_2023.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
  • World Expo 2030
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
  • Hangzhou Asian Games
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_X_on_2023.svgbt_X_over_2023.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
  • Login
  • Register
  • Login
  • Register
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
  • 1

    Seoul says FEOC guidance reduces uncertainty, will continue close consultation with US

  • 3

    NewJeans wins 2 grand prizes at Melon Music Awards 2023

  • 5

    Half-conscious Koreans

  • 7

    Son-dol: a cold day for a ferryman and a merchant

  • 9

    PPP slams abstainers in Assembly resolution on China's forced return of NK defectors

  • 11

    KOICA’s global supporters conclude remarkable journey with grand finale show

  • 13

    Koreas' spy satellite launches heat up arms race in space

  • 15

    NK warns 'physical clash, war' on Korean Peninsula a matter of time, not possibility

  • 17

    Gov't posthumously confers state medal on late Ven. Jaseung

  • 19

    Spaniard accused of helping N. Korea evade US sanctions arrested

  • 2

    First S. Korea spy satellite successfully launched into orbit

  • 4

    INTERVIEWEcolab helps Korean partners profit from ESG management

  • 6

    Major conglomerates speed up generational shifts in leadership

  • 8

    JYP to host annual audition in January

  • 10

    N. Korea bristles at US over comments about possible disabling of spy satellite

  • 12

    New US rules, aimed at curbing China, could make it harder for EV buyers to claim a full tax credit

  • 14

    Korean economy to start shrinking by 2050 if low birthrate unaddressed: BOK report

  • 16

    Ronaldo walks off to chants of 'Messi! Messi!' as his team loses 3-0 in Riyadh derby

  • 18

    INTERVIEW'Lifeline for migrant workers in Korea' - Rev. Kim fights for foreign employees' rights

  • 20

    ANALYSISHas N. Korean leader's daughter been confirmed as heir apparent?

Close scrollclosebutton

Close for 24 hours

Open
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
Opinion
Columnists
  • Yun Byung-se
  • Kim Won-soo
  • Ahn Ho-young
  • Kim Sang-woo
  • Lee Kyung-hwa
  • Mitch Shin
  • Peter S. Kim
  • Daniel Shin
  • Jeon Su-mi
  • Jang Daul
  • Song Kyung-jin
  • Park Jung-won
  • Cho Hee-kyoung
  • Park Chong-hoon
  • Kim Sung-woo
  • Donald Kirk
  • John Burton
  • Robert D. Atkinson
  • Mark Peterson
  • Eugene Lee
  • Rushan Ziatdinov
  • Lee Jong-eun
  • Chyung Eun-ju and Joel Cho
  • Bernhard J. Seliger
  • Imran Khalid
  • Troy Stangarone
  • Jason Lim
  • Casey Lartigue, Jr.
  • Bernard Rowan
  • Steven L. Shields
  • Deauwand Myers
  • John J. Metzler
  • Andrew Hammond
  • Sandip Kumar Mishra
Mon, December 4, 2023 | 13:01
15. Park Chong-hoon
Navigating uncertainty: economic forecasts and global dynamics in 2024
It is already November, the time of year when market economists embark on the annual ritual of forecasting macroeconomic indexes for the following year - an exercise fraught with uncertainty, at best. Economic forecasts are based on several assumptions, which may or may not come to pass. Historically, the U.S. and Chinese economies, oil price dynamics, geopolitics and the foreign exchange market have been key external factors affecting Korea’s economy. Next year will be no exception, in our view, with added policy risks caused by the U.S. presidential election next year.
2023-11-23 16:34
Navigating financial forecasting: Who to trust?
In the world of finance, uncertainty is a constant companion. One issue that often vexes investors is which bank's forecasts they can rely on. It's a simple question, yet the answer can be anything but straightforward. Famous investor and Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard S. Marks has long questioned the value of economic forecasts. Moreover, the diversity of forecasts from various banks leaves investors in perpetual doubt about which of these predictions they can trust.
2023-09-19 16:30
BOK might be among first to cut, but will not rush
We recently revised our view on the Bank of Korea's (BOK) policy rate and now expect a cut of 25 basis points in the first quarter of 2024 instead of the fourth quarter of 2023. This change in view is in line with the central bank's more hawkish stance recently and we expect it to stay on hold until the end of this year. Just as the BOK was among the first central banks to increase rates in the current cycle, we expect it to be the first to lower the base rate, but it may choose to do so based on its own unique needs.
2023-07-24 16:30
Time to tone down the pessimism
South Korea's economy faces various challenges, such as rising inflation, falling real wages, a persistent trade deficit and a weakening real estate market, but the overriding concern for the market is Korea's declining exports to its key trading partner, China.
2023-05-15 17:01
Prepare for the worst, but no need for pessimism
South Korea's trade deficit has been a cause for concern for the past 12 months due to a decline in semiconductor exports and exports to China. A widening trade deficit could impact the Korean won and monetary policy, prompting the Bank of Korea (BOK) to hike the base rate further to stabilize the currency. Moreover, the trade deficit may negatively affect economic growth by reducing imports and decreasing investment and economic activity.
2023-03-13 16:40
Expect timely fiscal expansion
“Don't tell me what you value. Show me your budget - and I'll tell you what you value.” -Joe Biden The government budget represents the political philosophy of the current government. The annual budget decisions can often be driven more by political than economic considerations, with more emphasis on the distribution of funds than on supporting growth.
2023-01-10 16:50
Managing market expectations will be key
The Korean won continues to depreciate, showing no signs of improvement this year. Starting the year at the 1,190 level, the currency has reached the mid-1,400s to the dollar, down 17.2 percent year to date, largely due to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Furthermore, relative to emerging market countries such as India, Indonesia and Malaysia, the Korean won has declined the fastest this year since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC).
2022-10-20 14:01
Wishful thinking amid both positives and risks
The KOSPI has shown some recovery since July, recouping some of the losses of this year. The index fell 22.2 percent up until June, one-year Korea Treasury Bond (KTB) yields rose to 3 percent on June 30 and have fallen since, suggesting that the policy rate is likely to peak around the 3-percent level. The market also no longer expects the Fed to hike the interest rate aggressively given the economic slowdown. Further, market expectations appear to be based on the expectation that U.S. inflation has already peaked.
2022-08-22 15:19
Face the facts but don't be overwhelmed by them
The “Stockdale paradox” is about conflicting duality: accepting the brutal facts of reality but maintaining an unwavering faith in the endgame. Jim Stockdale, a high-ranking U.S. navy officer, survived an eight-year imprisonment in Hanoi during the Vietnam War without giving up hope of freedom while facing the brutal fact that he would not be returning home any time soon, and definitely not for Christmas that year.
2022-07-11 16:32
Time to be conservative
I am often asked how the U.S. dollar-Korean won exchange rate will move in the near term, especially by acquaintances who have to send money to the U.S. for their kids. They are worried about the recent rapid pace of the won's depreciation and are feeling the pain of having to spend 10 to 15 percent more in Korean won terms to send their kids to school in the U.S. Corporates, especially importers, are facing similar pressure. Their profits can fluctuate by over 10 percent depending on the time of buying and selling dollars.
2022-05-09 16:55
 1 2
Top 10 Stories
1[INTERVIEW] Ecolab helps Korean partners profit from ESG management INTERVIEWEcolab helps Korean partners profit from ESG management
2Son-dol: a cold day for a ferryman and a merchantSon-dol: a cold day for a ferryman and a merchant
3Korean economy to start shrinking by 2050 if low birthrate unaddressed: BOK report Korean economy to start shrinking by 2050 if low birthrate unaddressed: BOK report
4[INTERVIEW] 'Lifeline for migrant workers in Korea' - Rev. Kim fights for foreign employees' rights INTERVIEW'Lifeline for migrant workers in Korea' - Rev. Kim fights for foreign employees' rights
5[ANALYSIS] Has N. Korean leader's daughter been confirmed as heir apparent? ANALYSISHas N. Korean leader's daughter been confirmed as heir apparent?
6Space race heats up between two Koreas after Seoul launches spy satellite Space race heats up between two Koreas after Seoul launches spy satellite
7[INTERVIEW] Korea to work with US, Japan to fight climate change INTERVIEWKorea to work with US, Japan to fight climate change
8Uncertainty lingers over Ven. Jaseung's deathUncertainty lingers over Ven. Jaseung's death
9Korean battery firms face higher costs for access to US subsidies Korean battery firms face higher costs for access to US subsidies
10Tensions rise as opposition demands special probe into first lady Tensions rise as opposition demands special probe into first lady
DARKROOM
  • It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas

    It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas

  • 2023 Thanksgiving parade in NYC

    2023 Thanksgiving parade in NYC

  • Appreciation of autumn colors

    Appreciation of autumn colors

  • Our children deserve better

    Our children deserve better

  • Israel-Gaza conflict erupts into war

    Israel-Gaza conflict erupts into war

  • Turkey-Syria earthquake

    Turkey-Syria earthquake

  • Nepal plane crash

    Nepal plane crash

  • Brazil capital uprising

    Brazil capital uprising

  • Happy New Year 2023

    Happy New Year 2023

  • World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

    World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

CEO & Publisher: Oh Young-jin
Digital News Email: webmaster@koreatimes.co.kr
Tel: 02-724-2114
Online newspaper registration No: 서울,아52844
Date of registration: 2020.02.05
Masthead: The Korea Times
Copyright © koreatimes.co.kr. All rights reserved.
  • About Us
  • Introduction
  • History
  • Contact Us
  • Products & Services
  • Subscribe
  • E-paper
  • RSS Service
  • Content Sales
  • Site Map
  • Policy
  • Code of Ethics
  • Ombudsman
  • Privacy Statement
  • Terms of Service
  • Copyright Policy
  • Family Site
  • Hankook Ilbo
  • Dongwha Group