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Sat, April 21, 2018 | 16:59

Opinion > Columnists > Stephen Costello >

Assembly elections and Clinton

What do U.S. officials really believe about how their policies will impact North Korea? How do they really think the North Korean leaders see the U.S.? As an adversary, potential partner, or enemy? These questions have come up in recent weeks as various officials, semi-officials and analysts debate options in the remaining months of the Obama administration. It is coincidental but important that the North Koreans are now holding a rare party convention for the first time in 36 years.

Stephen Costello | 2016-05-22 16:45

Washington think tanks misunderstand Korea

Some of the smartest people work at Washington policy institutions. They have experience, extensive and relevant backgrounds, and detailed proposals that are unavailable elsewhere. They’re called think tanks for a reason. It is not really possible to label them collectively.

Stephen Costello | 2016-05-08 16:51

Elections provoke policy debate

WASHINGTON D.C. - Korean democrats have won majority power in the National Assembly for the first time in 16 years. Most of the discussion during the campaigns was about everything except public policy. Now that many voters have abandoned the Park Guen Hye administration, what does this election mean for policy changes, either during the 18 months until the presidential election in December 2017 or possibly during the next administration from February 2018 onward?

Stephen Costello | 2016-04-24 16:49

China's conflicting interests on Korea

The discussion of Chinese interests regarding their North Korean neighbor, conflicted as they are, has often omitted some important considerations. Chinese officials and academics have often disagreed with each other and among themselves, so confusion is not surprising. Interests should also be distinguished from shorter-term tactical statements and actions, which are what most observers follow. Such interests should be a better guide to real policies and actions than the latest public statements or ungrounded assumptions.

Stephen Costello | 2016-04-10 16:44

Wind, Sun or Clouds?

Several people have pointed out to me an error in symbolism in my last column, and a misinterpretation of the famous fable by the writer Aesop. I agree that the logical alternative to sunshine in the fable is the wind, not the dark clouds. What ROK and US leaders have been doing could have been called the "Strong Wind" policy. However, had I done that, I would have to assume that Presidents Kim Dae Jung and Park GuenHye are aiming for the same result, taking off the coat. But I don’t think we can assume that. Maybe Presidents Park and Obama want the traveler to take off his coat, and then hi...

Stephen Costello | 2016-03-27 16:43

How will Dark Cloud policy work?

Many journalists, scholars, and experts have been saying for weeks that President Park Guen-hye’s speech to the Assembly, together with her government’s unilateral sanctions and closing of both the Kaesong business park and the Rajin-Khasan logistics hub, have finally ended the Sunshine, or engagement, policy. They often say that President Park, and also President Barack Obama, have “lost patience” with the DPRK. In this view, North Korea’s behavior was “tolerated” and the prospect of engagement was “kept alive.” Without getting into the accuracy of the media, or the impact of technology, ec...

Stephen Costello | 2016-03-13 16:25

Sunshine Policy died slow death

It is somewhat baffling to read that President Park Guen-hye’s speech to the National Assembly this week signaled the “death” of the Sunshine Policy. Certainly it signaled the death of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex (GIC), but that had become a stand-alone reminder of what could have been, largely orphaned by its South Korean creators. If it symbolized anything by now, the business park was a rebuke to all the anti-diplomacy and North-South absorption dreamers, because every day it demonstrated that there were, actually, some ways the two could cooperate for mutual benefit. In half a centur...

Stephen Costello | 2016-02-28 15:50

Will we change tactics on NK?

Following the Feb. 7 DPRK missile launch, alarmist voices from top officials have now reached a crescendo. Robert Carlin, perhaps the best North Korea watcher in the US, notes that Kim Jung Un’s behavior is very similar to his two predecessors, and then makes this point: “This - in some sense the essential interests North Koreans believe they must defend - is what we have to deal with, difficult though it might be, and scaring ourselves with dancing shadows on the walls of a cave of our own making will, in the end, lead us nowhere good.”

Stephen Costello | 2016-02-14 16:29

New engagement strategy

The South Korean administration resumed loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts into North Korea on Jan. 9, and a U.S. B-52 Stratofortress flew over South Korea from Guam on Jan. 10. Both were in response to North Korea’s claim that it conducted an underground test of an H-Bomb. Both the H-bomb claim and an earlier video alleging development of a submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) were judged to be fabrications by many experts. Nevertheless, it is assumed that progress on the technical work of development continues on the two weapons. Both are distinguished by their strategic futility, th...

Stephen Costello | 2016-01-17 16:01

Comfort for whom?

The Korea-Japan Dec. 28 agreement to settle the comfort woman/sexual slavery issues between them could be a step forward for both countries. It should be some compensation for surviving women to receive compensation from Japan. Little of the rest of the agreement can survive the leaders or the related considerations that resulted in the deal.

Stephen Costello | 2016-01-03 16:41

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Missile attack on Syria