By Lee Seong-hyon
As the whirlwind of Korean geopolitics (read: "Korean crisis") goes full swing toward the year's end, I'd like to make some observations on some of its pronounced features. We Koreans are quite used to the curse of unpredictability in our lives. (Perhaps that's why we drink lots of soju to the point of intoxication, in a futile endeavor to escape reality?) However, the current situation is extremely unusual and highly volatile.
Not only the one-night romance that bloomed in Singapore between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un has lately turned sour and even precarious, but the circumstance is further complicated with Seoul's own issues with its allies and partners, including with the United States over the defense cost sharing squabble and the Korea-U.S. alliance itself. The chasm between Seoul and Tokyo over GSOMIA isn't over, despite Seoul's extension of the pact.
China is still unofficially sanctioning South Korea over the latter's hosting of a THAAD system. In their summit in Beijing on Monday between President Moon Jae-in and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, Xi underscored that he hoped the THAAD issue to be "properly resolved." It means the THAAD issue isn't over. Xi skipped the "culture" and "tourism" exchanges among the areas that need to be strengthened between Seoul and Beijing (i.e., the two primary fronts that are still under China's economic retaliation due to South Korea's THAAD hosting). In contrast, Xi specifically mentioned about them in his separate meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whom he also met Tuesday.
Russia's unannounced entry into South Korea's ADIZ put the bilateral relationship in an awkward foothold. Russia, together with China, is likely to continue to do so, again and often.
As the old saying goes, South Korea today is "surrounded by adversarial circumstances on all four corners." If we add two more elements, that is, the inter-Korean deterioration and South Korea's worsening domestic political divide, today South Korea is "surrounded by adversarial circumstances on all six corners." These were the words of a former senior government official during a recent public forum during his comments on the unprecedented challenges the nation faces.
The North's Kim is cold-shouldering Moon for the latter's adhering to the U.S.-led sanctions campaign, particularly over the issue of Mount Geumgang tours and hosting the reopening of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex. Doing so could have served as a much-needed economic breather for North Korea's hobbling economy. South Korea's own domestic politics and economy are all in a quagmire, while the South Korean society is torn apart along income lines, partisan politics, and social discord over how to prioritize between "welfare versus growth."
Indeed, as many Koreans say, the nation may have entered into a new period it had "never experienced before" in history.
Further observations reveal that many of the challenges South Korea is experiencing today are, in fact, the results of South Korea's own making. This is also unprecedented. But outside factors are also at work too.
At the end of 2019, China's policy toward the Korean Peninsula is more shaped by "extraneous factors" than ever; the U.S.-China relationship. The reason Xi Jinping staged a summit meeting with Kim Jong-un in June was due to the U.S. In the art of analyzing China's foreign policy, "timing" is a very important indicator in reading China's intentions. Xi timed the visit one week before his expected meeting with Trump at the G20 summit in Japan. Xi wanted to secure negotiating leverage with Trump by highlighting the notion that China is indispensable to steering the North Korea nuclear issue and Washington needs China's cooperation. It was also a veiled hint that Trump should go easy on China on the trade front.
Speaking of U.S.-China relations, despite the "phase one" agreement, the worst moment in U.S.-China relations has yet to come. We should expect to see a mid- to long-term deterioration of Washington-Beijing ties. I am making this prediction, without making judgment regarding who, between Washington and Beijing, will turn out to be the winner in their grab for supremacy. But it is easy to predict who will suffer the most: South Korea. Many survey organizations and international bodies have already made the same prediction.
The Bank of Korea has just issued a forecast that the U.S.-China conflict is the largest risk factor the nation's economy will face next year. In fact, it will be the same on the political front as well. South Korea should buckle up. It's not time for more soju.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute.
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Not only the one-night romance that bloomed in Singapore between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un has lately turned sour and even precarious, but the circumstance is further complicated with Seoul's own issues with its allies and partners, including with the United States over the defense cost sharing squabble and the Korea-U.S. alliance itself. The chasm between Seoul and Tokyo over GSOMIA isn't over, despite Seoul's extension of the pact.
China is still unofficially sanctioning South Korea over the latter's hosting of a THAAD system. In their summit in Beijing on Monday between President Moon Jae-in and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, Xi underscored that he hoped the THAAD issue to be "properly resolved." It means the THAAD issue isn't over. Xi skipped the "culture" and "tourism" exchanges among the areas that need to be strengthened between Seoul and Beijing (i.e., the two primary fronts that are still under China's economic retaliation due to South Korea's THAAD hosting). In contrast, Xi specifically mentioned about them in his separate meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whom he also met Tuesday.
Russia's unannounced entry into South Korea's ADIZ put the bilateral relationship in an awkward foothold. Russia, together with China, is likely to continue to do so, again and often.
As the old saying goes, South Korea today is "surrounded by adversarial circumstances on all four corners." If we add two more elements, that is, the inter-Korean deterioration and South Korea's worsening domestic political divide, today South Korea is "surrounded by adversarial circumstances on all six corners." These were the words of a former senior government official during a recent public forum during his comments on the unprecedented challenges the nation faces.
The North's Kim is cold-shouldering Moon for the latter's adhering to the U.S.-led sanctions campaign, particularly over the issue of Mount Geumgang tours and hosting the reopening of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex. Doing so could have served as a much-needed economic breather for North Korea's hobbling economy. South Korea's own domestic politics and economy are all in a quagmire, while the South Korean society is torn apart along income lines, partisan politics, and social discord over how to prioritize between "welfare versus growth."
Indeed, as many Koreans say, the nation may have entered into a new period it had "never experienced before" in history.
Further observations reveal that many of the challenges South Korea is experiencing today are, in fact, the results of South Korea's own making. This is also unprecedented. But outside factors are also at work too.
At the end of 2019, China's policy toward the Korean Peninsula is more shaped by "extraneous factors" than ever; the U.S.-China relationship. The reason Xi Jinping staged a summit meeting with Kim Jong-un in June was due to the U.S. In the art of analyzing China's foreign policy, "timing" is a very important indicator in reading China's intentions. Xi timed the visit one week before his expected meeting with Trump at the G20 summit in Japan. Xi wanted to secure negotiating leverage with Trump by highlighting the notion that China is indispensable to steering the North Korea nuclear issue and Washington needs China's cooperation. It was also a veiled hint that Trump should go easy on China on the trade front.
Speaking of U.S.-China relations, despite the "phase one" agreement, the worst moment in U.S.-China relations has yet to come. We should expect to see a mid- to long-term deterioration of Washington-Beijing ties. I am making this prediction, without making judgment regarding who, between Washington and Beijing, will turn out to be the winner in their grab for supremacy. But it is easy to predict who will suffer the most: South Korea. Many survey organizations and international bodies have already made the same prediction.
The Bank of Korea has just issued a forecast that the U.S.-China conflict is the largest risk factor the nation's economy will face next year. In fact, it will be the same on the political front as well. South Korea should buckle up. It's not time for more soju.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute.
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