China's peninsula engagement

By Yang Moo-jin

China and North Korea seem to be getting closer these days. The leaders of the two countries exchanged congratulatory messages on the 60th anniversary of the China-DPRK Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance on July 11. In the message, they emphasized advancing the development of respective socialist causes and strengthening strategic communication, based on the friendship between the two sides that was forged in blood.

Intensifying U.S.-China competition is behind the close relationship between China and North Korea. China could be seen as using North Korea, which is a traditional ally and geopolitical buffer zone, to counter the U.S.'s pressure and containment strategies. The Biden administration has defined China as its sole competitor and made it clear that it will respond with the alliance network, while stressing value-oriented diplomacy that places democracy and human rights first.

North Korea is prepared to reinforce its relationship with China as leverage to deal with international sanctions, amid a protracted deadlock in relations with the U.S., while strengthening internal unity and striving for self-reliance, as it propagates a people-first policy internally.

Now, China is engaged in a strategic competition with the U.S., while North Korea is waging psychological warfare with America over the nuclear negotiations. Due to the growing need for mutual cooperation between China and North Korea, their close relationship is likely to continue for a while.

In terms of reliable control over the Korean Peninsula situation, China's growing influence in North Korea is of some use. China does not want military tensions and conflicts to erupt on the Korean Peninsula just in front of its doorstep. China will strongly oppose high-level North Korean provocations, such as nuclear tests and ICBM test launches, which provide a reason to strengthen the U.S. missile defense system and ROK-U.S.-Japan military cooperation. However, there is a limit to China's role of controlling military tensions, due to Beijing's passive stance and penchant for maintaining the status quo.

Although China is said to prefer dialogue to address problems involving the Korean Peninsula, Beijing appears to favor maintaining a balance of power by teaming up with North Korea and Russia rather than seeking active cooperation with the U.S. But due to this response, there is a great risk that a ROK-U.S.-Japan vs. DPRK-China-Russia rivalry will form.

The most desirable situation is for the North Korea issue to fall into the realm of U.S.-China cooperation and related nations to come together to pursue peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia. The Biden administration has pointed out the possibility of working with China on the issues of Iran, North Korea and climate change. To make the North Korea issue fall into the realm of U.S.-China cooperation, it is necessary to see denuclearization as a long-term process, as suggested by the Biden administration, and gradually take steps to achieve peace, improve relations and build trust.

During their summit in late May, the leaders of South Korea and the U.S. set conditions for resuming talks with North Korea by reaffirming the importance of diplomacy and dialogue with the North based on the previous inter-Korea and U.S.-DPRK agreements, such as the Panmunjom Declaration and Singapore joint statement. The U.S. should not put the blame on North Korea by saying that the ball is in its court. If it is difficult to ease sanctions first, the U.S. needs to present a roadmap for tangible progress, including the establishment of a peace regime and the improvement of the U.S.-DPRK relationship, which North Korea could negotiate.

Also, the U.S. should not limit China's role when it comes to North Korea issues by demanding it to join in the international sanctions. Rather, the U.S. should work with China to make it play a constructive role as an "honest broker" in resuming talks and promoting negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea. The Beijing Winter Olympics next February could provide important momentum for China to seek an active role in addressing the North Korea issues.

North Korea may be very aware of the fact that it is not possible to ensure its survival by relying on China only. North Korea has painful memories of China failing to consider its point of view and establishing diplomatic relations with South Korea when the Cold War ended in the 1990s. North Korea may have the long-term goal of improving its relations with the U.S., along with establishing an independent foundation for survival and prosperity. As such, a foreign policy of relying solely on China could be dangerous for North Korea.

Furthermore, North Korea must deviate from its rigid stance of resuming talks only after the U.S. first abandons its hostile policy. Since the U.S. has declared its desire for a diplomatic solution through a practical and phased approach, North Korea should return to the negotiating table, listen to the Biden administration's policy and try to achieve what it wants by proceeding with negotiations over incentives that the U.S. may suggest.

Yang Moo-jin (yangmj@kyungnam.ac.kr) is a professor at the University of North Korean Studies and vice chairman of the Korean Association of North Korean Studies. He is also a standing committee member of the National Unification Advisory Council and a policy consultant at the Ministry of Unification.