Caught in Catch-22

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Caught in Catch-22

Posted : 2010-06-02 18:06

Updated : 2010-06-02 18:06

By Cho Jae-hyon
City editor

Did North Korea really attack the warship Cheonan? To steer clear of this uncomfortable but haunting question, the government and military should leave no stone unturned in their inquiry into the sinking.

A team of international investigators, comprised of government and private experts, has blamed the North for the March 26 sinking of the ship that killed 46 sailors. They presented parts of a torpedo as "overwhelming evidence" that a North Korean submarine torpedoed the frigate. A naval warship went down, who else but the North is the dominating sentiment.

Still, nearly 30 percent of citizens remain doubtful about the investigation result, according to a spate of recent opinion polls.

It's not because they are left-leaning or sympathetic to Pyongyang as often accused by conservatives. Of course, people tend to believe what they want to believe. Even so, many questions surrounding the sinking of the warship are left unaddressed amid tight control of information by the authorities.

According to another opinion poll organized by the Korea Journalist Association, 41 percent of the respondents said they don't believe what has been announced and 76 percent said the disclosure of information was insufficient. Though journalists are skeptical species by nature, the levels of their distrust seems high.

The Defense Ministry has not only made contradicting and inconsistent statements, but also refused to disclose information, sowing seeds of mistrust. Furthermore, the timing of the announcement of the investigation result, made on May 20, was ideal to fan "bukpung" or the northern wind just ahead of the June 2 local elections. It's like deja vu all over again ― the usual pattern where tension with the North somehow ratchets up ahead of elections.

A verbal gaffe by a member of the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) provided a rare peek into the mindset of conservative lawmakers. Rep. Lee Yoon-sung of GNP said, during a press briefing Monday, that the Cheonan incident "luckily" took place in the waters off Incheon City to help conservative candidates running for various posts with GNP tickets gain more votes in the electorate.

His remark, which drew fierce protests from opposition lawmakers, laid bare GNP members' underlying hopes that a stronger "northern wind"will unite more conservative voters behind them.

The latest inter-Korean tensions ran higher around May 24 when the South announced the resumption of propaganda broadcasts along the Demilitarized Zone, prompting the North to react with warnings to fire at the speakers. The South also vowed to counterattack in case of the North starts shooting.

During an annual summit with leaders of China and Japan, President Lee Myung-bak went as far as saying that: "We are not afraid of a war, but we don't want it."

This escalated verbal tit-for-tats were scary enough to stoke fears among ordinary citizens that war or some skirmishes might break out. A large chunk of news and columns in papers fanned North Korean threats.

Not surprisingly, the Lee administration is refraining from adding further pressure on Pyongyang since the beginning of the week.

The local elections were finally over yesterday. Regardless of the results, the riddance of the election element will provide a greater leeway for a calmer approach toward the Cheonan sinking.

The government is seeking support from the United States, Japan and other countries to slap economic sanctions against the North. It will soon refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council, desperately needing support from China, the North's chief economic benefactor and political ally.

China has not given any signal whether to support the South's move to punish the North at the UNSC. China, as one of five permanent members of the council, can veto any action. It won't support Seoul if it is not fully convinced that the North did wrong.

It's easy to call for punishment of the North. Sometimes, we need to play hardball to show who the boss is. But the trouble is that we don't have many options, and tougher sanctions have not worked so far to tame the North Korean dictator. For instance, in June 2009, new UN sanctions for the North's second nuclear test were met by more generations of plutonium. It's a classic"Catch-22"situation.

President Lee's catchphrase is "centrist pragmatism." Heightening inter-Korean tension is far from pragmatic. The costs are too dear for the economy.

With the local elections over, the "northern wind" is subsiding. War or military clashes are the last thing we need. What's the most pressing now is to ease tension and dispel remaining skepticism. Cracking down on bloggers for spreading "groundless rumors" or showing the wreckage of the sunken battleship to a handful of selected twitter users is not enough.

chojh@koreatimes.co.kr