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| U.S. President Donald Trump. AP |
By Casey Lartigue Jr.
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Stage 1: The unknown. With Hillary Clinton anointed as the next president until the electoral votes were counted, candidate Trump wasn't taken seriously.
Stage 2: Status quo. Once in office, Trump initially seemed to ignore North Korea, meaning that he might be like other politicians, Trump's predecessors.
Stage 3: Fire and fury. While the media and diplomats around the world condemned Trump for his threats directed at the North Korean regime, North Korean refugees mostly celebrated. Some refugees did worry that Trump might cause a war, but others I talked to mainly said that "at last, someone was talking to Kim Jong-un in language that he understands." As one refugee gleefully told me: "I bet Kim Jong-un can't sleep peacefully with Trump threatening him so directly."
North Korean firebrand Lee Aeran, who had started a fundraiser to put a $1 million bounty on the head of Kim Jong-un, sought to meet Trump directly. Other refugees who had previously recommended assassinating Kim or starving North Korea by isolating it were encouraged by Trump's harsh rhetoric.
Stage 4: Raised expectations. As Trump ramped up "maximum pressure," some North Korean refugees shortened their timelines for North Korea's demise from five to seven years to months. Some speculated that the regime might collapse if Trump kept up the pressure and that Kim could even be ousted by North Korea's elite. When Trump canceled the summit and North Korea seemed to beg to resume negotiations, some saw it as evidence of North Korea's weakness. On the other hand, some refugees saw Trump as being reckless and complained that Trump and Vice President Mike Pence were "pouring cold water on negotiations between North and South Korea."
Stage 5: Disappointment. After raising expectations, the summit was denounced by North Korean refugees who had previously been optimistic. Trump's compliments of Kim alarmed numerous North Korean refugees, including my former colleague Yeonmi Park who is still releasing videos denouncing Trump. On the other hand, refugees who were hoping for dialogue hailed the agreement, although they still advised of being cautious because the Kim regime is unlikely to give up nuclear weapons.
Stage 6: Reconciliation: While many prominent North Korean refugees are questioning Trump's apparent about-face, many who are not public have told me in interviews that they are still cautiously optimistic that Trump may have an alternative strategy.
Stage 7: Hope. Those seeking to enforce the Singapore agreement are hopeful that Trump the businessman will honor the deal. Those seeking to undermine North Korea are hopeful that the unpredictable Trump will cancel the agreement if/when North Korea backtracks on written or oral agreements. In either case, North Korean refugees who have gone through the seven stages of Trump (and there could be more) note that North Korea has already been drawn out of its shell and that negotiations now with the North are more open internationally than they have ever been.
Casey Lartigue Jr. (CJL@alumni.harvard.edu) is co-founder of the Teach North Korean Refugees Global Education Center (TNKR) in Seoul.
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