In my blog post two weeks ago, I discussed the optimism that North Korean defectors have about the possibility of change in North Korea. Since then, I have heard from a few North Korean refugees who are not convinced. It isn't 100 percent uniform, but I have noticed a general split between defectors and refugees when it comes to prospects for change in North Korea.
Defectors versus refugees? Some people may ask: What's the difference between defectors and refugees? From my observation, defectors escaped after being insiders who had lost faith in the regime. Refugees escaped because they were starving or because of other life-and-death issues that were not blatantly political. Some refugees can become defectors after they learn about the reality of North Korea once they are free people able to read beyond texts required by the regime's brainwashers.
So who is right, the optimistic defectors that I quoted last week or the pessimistic refugees who have been telling me that those experts are wrong?
At the moment, the wind is behind the backs of the optimists. It has been a sprint, not a marathon, to get negotiations between the USA and North Korea started. Within a short time, we have gone from Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un hurling insults at each other and risking war, to the prospect of them actually sitting down and having real negotiations. Who would have believed this was possible when they were calling each other "dotard" and "rocket man," and talking about the location and size of their nuclear buttons?
North Korea seems to be more flexible than ever. Why? One refugee who arrived last year suspects that North Korea is still playing the game of offering just enough to entice the United States to the negotiation table and to excite progressives in South Korea. Whereas as some of the elite defectors believe those insiders are willing to adapt to save themselves, the refugee who arrived last year says those insiders are just trying to get through the current crisis before they return to nuclear development.
The optimists point to Kim Jong-un losing the trust of the insiders and never really gaining the respect of the people. The dictator puppet was trotted out, got booed, so the insiders are trying something new.
Who is right? The defectors I quoted last week who see change on the horizon or the North Korean refugees who don't believe North Korea can change? World leaders may be ready to make a deal with Kim Jong-un, but what about the refugees who went through so much to escape from North Korea or those who lost their family members to the Kim dictator killing machine? And what about North Koreans in North Korea who are still the recipients of brainwashing and oppression by the North Korean dictatorship?
Even if reunification comes quickly, the split between defectors and refugees suggests it won't be easy even within North Korea ― something defectors and refugees may agree on.
Casey Lartigue Jr. is co-founder of the Teach North Korean Refugees Global Education Center.