By Casey Lartigue Jr.
At almost every discussion featuring speakers discussing North Korea, I have heard the question: How much longer can North Korea survive? The usual answer since the early 1990s has been: five to seven years.
Recently, I have detected a change. Instead of five to seven years, a few former members of the North Korean elite have told me that they expect it will be months before Kim Jong-un is out.
Thae Yong-ho, the highest-ranking North Korean diplomat to escape, is emphatic: "Kim Jong-un's days are numbered."
Another former insider told me recently that he expects that Kim Jong-un will be out as early as June. Another predicted there would be a short war between the U.S. and North Korea, but that it would not last long because North Koreans would not fight for Kim Jong-Un.
The timelines are different timelines, but the common point is they are all short.
Why the change? I have heard two main reasons. One is the direct challenge from U.S. President Donald Trump. One analyst pointed to the parallel of the collapse of the once powerful Soviet Union after U.S. President Ronald Reagan's direct challenge revealed the USSR was a paper tiger.
The optimistic analyst said Trump's "fire-and-fury" challenge to North Korea raised the stakes, alarming Kim Jong-Un's backers in China and North Korea.
Kim Jong-Un's surprise trip to China was a desperate attempt to save his regime, trying to assure the North Korean elite that he still had the Chinese government's support.
Instead, the analyst said, Kim Jong-Un returned with nothing and would be stepping down within the next few months.
That leads to the second reason Kim Jong-Un's days are numbered: he has lost the support of the elite.
He went on a reign of terror, including executing his uncle and half-brother, to protect his power base, but instead the elite began defecting and plotting behind his back. His reckless gambit of setting off missiles to scare the world failed because sanctions began squeezing the country even further.
His protectors in China and North Korea lost the little faith they had in him and have reportedly already chosen a successor. Kim boasted of having the nuclear button at his desk, but the North Korean regime has disconnected it.
The analysts are saying that the North Korean system has been doomed for quite some time, and that the leadership has known it. Kim Jong-Un's reckless actions, Trump's direct challenge, and sanctions have caused analysts to shorten the timeline and boldly predict that Kim Jong-Un's reign will not last.
Casey Lartigue Jr. is co-founder of the Teach North Korean Refugees Global Education Center.
At almost every discussion featuring speakers discussing North Korea, I have heard the question: How much longer can North Korea survive? The usual answer since the early 1990s has been: five to seven years.
Recently, I have detected a change. Instead of five to seven years, a few former members of the North Korean elite have told me that they expect it will be months before Kim Jong-un is out.
Thae Yong-ho, the highest-ranking North Korean diplomat to escape, is emphatic: "Kim Jong-un's days are numbered."
Another former insider told me recently that he expects that Kim Jong-un will be out as early as June. Another predicted there would be a short war between the U.S. and North Korea, but that it would not last long because North Koreans would not fight for Kim Jong-Un.
The timelines are different timelines, but the common point is they are all short.
Why the change? I have heard two main reasons. One is the direct challenge from U.S. President Donald Trump. One analyst pointed to the parallel of the collapse of the once powerful Soviet Union after U.S. President Ronald Reagan's direct challenge revealed the USSR was a paper tiger.
The optimistic analyst said Trump's "fire-and-fury" challenge to North Korea raised the stakes, alarming Kim Jong-Un's backers in China and North Korea.
Kim Jong-Un's surprise trip to China was a desperate attempt to save his regime, trying to assure the North Korean elite that he still had the Chinese government's support.
Instead, the analyst said, Kim Jong-Un returned with nothing and would be stepping down within the next few months.
That leads to the second reason Kim Jong-Un's days are numbered: he has lost the support of the elite.
He went on a reign of terror, including executing his uncle and half-brother, to protect his power base, but instead the elite began defecting and plotting behind his back. His reckless gambit of setting off missiles to scare the world failed because sanctions began squeezing the country even further.
His protectors in China and North Korea lost the little faith they had in him and have reportedly already chosen a successor. Kim boasted of having the nuclear button at his desk, but the North Korean regime has disconnected it.
The analysts are saying that the North Korean system has been doomed for quite some time, and that the leadership has known it. Kim Jong-Un's reckless actions, Trump's direct challenge, and sanctions have caused analysts to shorten the timeline and boldly predict that Kim Jong-Un's reign will not last.
Casey Lartigue Jr. is co-founder of the Teach North Korean Refugees Global Education Center.
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