By Lee Seong-hyon
North Korea is a country that invites misunderstanding. The disappearance of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has been creating commotion not just in South Korea, but around the world.
The security implication is, understandably, huge. North Korea is a nuclear state. A power vacuum could incite violent turbulence in the region.
However, when the dust finally settles, all the headlines of Kim's alleged death or grave illness is likely to turn out to be "much ado about nothing." The most critical indicator is that North Korea's military is not on alert, as it would otherwise be.
When there is a national security emergency in North Korea, like the sudden death of its dictator, there are three things to check when it comes to gauging the contingency in North Korea. First, unusual signs in North Korea's troop movement along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that divides the two Koreas; second, unusual signs in the Pyongyang Defense Command that is comprised of about 25,000 soldiers who guard the capital; third, unusual signs in the signals intelligence (SIGINT) coming in and out of Pyongyang.
Additionally, the U.S. forces in South Korea and Japan deploy surveillance aircraft such as the U.S. Air Force's E-8C and the Navy's P-3C to monitor North Korea.
It appears that the governments of both South Korea and the United States have concluded that there is no unusual movement in North Korea in this regard, giving an indicator that Kim is still in charge and calls the shots.
Kim was last seen on April 11 when he attended the Politburo meeting in Pyongyang. The next day, on April 12, the annual Supreme People's Assembly (North Korea's parliament session) was held also in Pyongyang's Mansudae Assembly Hall, with nearly 700 deputies in attendance. These 700 deputies are from all over the country.
Surprisingly, based on North Korean state TV footage, we could see no one wore facial masks, apparently trying to prove to the world that no one in North Korea was infected with COVID-19 (the North Korean government's official position on the matter). Kim, however, did not show up at this large gathering. It is possible that Kim feared a possible outbreak of COVID-19 and has since been "social-distancing" himself by leaving Pyongyang and staying in Wonsan, an eastern seaside city.
Kim's absence from the public view does not automatically constitute his grave illness. There are already three instances this year when Kim was absent from the public view for over 10 days. In 2014, he was even absent for 40 days. Today, however, that does not exclude his susceptibility to illness either. Kim is known to have health problems. His extreme obesity and chain-smoking habit is public knowledge. But we have no reason, at this time, to conclude he is seriously ill or unable eventually to reappear in public.
Kim's disappearance often creates intense fascination from the outside world, because of its implication for instability in regional geopolitics. The safety issue of North Korea's nuclear weapons, in case of North Korean contingency, is something both the U.S. and China are supposed to cooperate on. However, we don't see it. Actually, we didn't see any cooperation between them on COVID-19 either. From a larger regional and global perspective, this is more concerning than the disappearance of Kim.
Regarding Kim's successor issue, this is something the world should take seriously. We don't like a dictator. But when the dictator dies without a known heir, that's even worse because it is open to more instability and violence.
Kim's sister Yo-jong is frequently mentioned these days as a possible heir. Indeed, given her pedigree, she is the most likely person to take over power. However, given her young age and lack of experience, she would need the guardianship of aunt Kim Kyong-hui, and of Kim Chang-son, the chief of staff to Kim Jong-un. Even then, her power will be shaky unless she is able to illicit cooperation from North Korea's special interest groups in intelligence, the powerful Workers' Party's Organization Department, not to mention, the military.
Kim, in his Wonsan resort room overlooking the beach, may have been enjoying all the media attention he has been gathering so far. That makes him famous. However, that makes him more dangerous too. His disappearance makes the world realize how a dictatorship without transparency could be a liability to the world.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is director, the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute.
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The security implication is, understandably, huge. North Korea is a nuclear state. A power vacuum could incite violent turbulence in the region.
However, when the dust finally settles, all the headlines of Kim's alleged death or grave illness is likely to turn out to be "much ado about nothing." The most critical indicator is that North Korea's military is not on alert, as it would otherwise be.
When there is a national security emergency in North Korea, like the sudden death of its dictator, there are three things to check when it comes to gauging the contingency in North Korea. First, unusual signs in North Korea's troop movement along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that divides the two Koreas; second, unusual signs in the Pyongyang Defense Command that is comprised of about 25,000 soldiers who guard the capital; third, unusual signs in the signals intelligence (SIGINT) coming in and out of Pyongyang.
Additionally, the U.S. forces in South Korea and Japan deploy surveillance aircraft such as the U.S. Air Force's E-8C and the Navy's P-3C to monitor North Korea.
It appears that the governments of both South Korea and the United States have concluded that there is no unusual movement in North Korea in this regard, giving an indicator that Kim is still in charge and calls the shots.
Kim was last seen on April 11 when he attended the Politburo meeting in Pyongyang. The next day, on April 12, the annual Supreme People's Assembly (North Korea's parliament session) was held also in Pyongyang's Mansudae Assembly Hall, with nearly 700 deputies in attendance. These 700 deputies are from all over the country.
Surprisingly, based on North Korean state TV footage, we could see no one wore facial masks, apparently trying to prove to the world that no one in North Korea was infected with COVID-19 (the North Korean government's official position on the matter). Kim, however, did not show up at this large gathering. It is possible that Kim feared a possible outbreak of COVID-19 and has since been "social-distancing" himself by leaving Pyongyang and staying in Wonsan, an eastern seaside city.
Kim's absence from the public view does not automatically constitute his grave illness. There are already three instances this year when Kim was absent from the public view for over 10 days. In 2014, he was even absent for 40 days. Today, however, that does not exclude his susceptibility to illness either. Kim is known to have health problems. His extreme obesity and chain-smoking habit is public knowledge. But we have no reason, at this time, to conclude he is seriously ill or unable eventually to reappear in public.
Kim's disappearance often creates intense fascination from the outside world, because of its implication for instability in regional geopolitics. The safety issue of North Korea's nuclear weapons, in case of North Korean contingency, is something both the U.S. and China are supposed to cooperate on. However, we don't see it. Actually, we didn't see any cooperation between them on COVID-19 either. From a larger regional and global perspective, this is more concerning than the disappearance of Kim.
Regarding Kim's successor issue, this is something the world should take seriously. We don't like a dictator. But when the dictator dies without a known heir, that's even worse because it is open to more instability and violence.
Kim's sister Yo-jong is frequently mentioned these days as a possible heir. Indeed, given her pedigree, she is the most likely person to take over power. However, given her young age and lack of experience, she would need the guardianship of aunt Kim Kyong-hui, and of Kim Chang-son, the chief of staff to Kim Jong-un. Even then, her power will be shaky unless she is able to illicit cooperation from North Korea's special interest groups in intelligence, the powerful Workers' Party's Organization Department, not to mention, the military.
Kim, in his Wonsan resort room overlooking the beach, may have been enjoying all the media attention he has been gathering so far. That makes him famous. However, that makes him more dangerous too. His disappearance makes the world realize how a dictatorship without transparency could be a liability to the world.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is director, the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute.
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