What Russia's invasion means for Korean Peninsula

By Kim Sang-woo

It is clear now that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be unable to achieve the political objectives he intended, namely, to march into Kyiv and replace Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's government with one friendly to the Kremlin. Putin's war may have destroyed much of Ukraine physically, but the unprecedented sanctions and economic isolation are destroying Russia economically.

For Ukraine, the resilience of its leadership, society and armed forces is a marvel. National identity is more robust than ever; Ukraine's staunch resistance inspired the world.

However, it has come at a great cost. An estimated 10 million Ukrainians are internally displaced or refugees. The economy has been wrecked.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is more united and stronger as a result of Russia's aggression. It also benefits from the poor performance of the Russian armed forces, which appeared to be no match for the Western alliance.

U.S. President Joe Biden made a speech in Warsaw on March 26. Biden described the Russian invasion of Ukraine not only as a threat to European security but as "a battle between democracy and autocracy, between liberty and repression, between a rules-based order and one governed by brute force."

Nevertheless, no one should underestimate Putin's willingness to keep this brutal war going until he controls enough Ukraine territory to demand concessions that could be dressed up for the Russian public to look like a victory.

At this juncture, two very different futures are possible. If Putin is successful in undermining Ukrainian independence and democracy, the world will return to an era of aggressive and intolerant nationalism reminiscent of the early 20th century.

On the other hand, if Putin leads Russia into a debacle of military and economic failure, the chance remains to relearn the liberal lesson that power unconstrained by laws leads to national disaster.

The one thing that might ease Putin's desperation would be Chinese support. It is not clear yet if Washington's threat of sanctions has deterred China ― or encouraged it to side with Putin.

Yet by associating so closely with Putin, Xi Jinping has exposed himself to criticism for flawed judgment that damages China's reputation and raises the risk of being targeted with secondary sanctions.

While China has long sought to divide the West, its alignment with Russia has done the opposite, alienating Western Europe, where it had been making significant economic inroads. It will also lead to a much tougher U.S. policy toward China and highlight the costs the country should face if it were ever to move militarily against Taiwan.

If Washington now faces both Chinese and Russian challenges, it must necessarily empower its allies and modernize burden-sharing arrangements in Asia and Europe. Fortunately, the Biden administration's grand strategy has space to do both.

Its special emphasis on building what U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan calls a "latticework of flexible partnerships; institutions, alliances, [and] groups of countries" has already gained considerable traction in Asia.

As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi put it recently, the United States has developed a "five-four-three-two" formation in Asia ― "from strengthening the Five Eyes to peddling the Quad, from piecing together AUKUS to tightening bilateral military alliances."

Thanks to Putin's war in Ukraine, Europe's prolonged sabbatical from geopolitics has come to an end. It is finally ready to do more for its own defense, including a historic German decision to rearm.

Neither Asia nor Europe can balance China and Russia on their own for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, by doing more for their own security, they help boost U.S. domestic political support for sustained military commitment to the two regions.

By promoting a larger role for its allies, Washington can build durable regional balances of power in Asia and Europe ― backed by U.S. military strength.

The immediate impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on the Korean Peninsula is that it has left the door wide open for North Korea to pursue an even more robust missile testing regime without fear of consequences from the U.N. Security Council.

Chinese and Russian proposals to weaken Security Council imposed sanctions on North Korea since December 2020 had already eroded U.N.-led sanctions for North Korean ballistic missile testing and with the Ukrainian conflict, has now been shattered.

The Moon Jae-in administration has aligned South Korea with the United States and Europe in imposing sanctions on Russia and cooperating with its sanctions measures.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken has expressed satisfaction with South Korea's efforts to hold the line on Russian sanctions.

On March 8, Biden sent a letter of gratitude to President Moon Jae-in for South Korea's leadership and actions supporting Ukraine's sovereignty.

The conflict in Ukraine will put more pressure on South Korea's new president, who assumes office on May 10, in his efforts to deter North Korean missile tests, with little diplomatic means.

The Biden administration should be pleased that the incoming president places alignment with the United States at the center of South Korea's foreign policy priorities and intends to take more of a leadership role as a "global pivotal state."

The more active international role of South Korea's new government will be welcomed, especially at a time when nations are finding it more difficult to contribute to global agendas.

The Russian threats in Ukraine regarding the risks of nuclear escalation and their implication for the Korean Peninsula should be closely watched.

Moreover, Russian efforts to secure control over Ukrainian nuclear power plants and the challenge of how to ensure their safety and security during a military conflict will be important lessons to be learned for South Korea.

After the revelation of the shocking performance of Russia's military forces in Ukraine, I hope that Kim Jong-un will think hard about the real capability of his military forces before doing anything foolish.

Kim Sang-woo (swkim54@hotmail.com), a former lawmaker, is chairman of the East Asia Cultural Project. He is also a member of the board of directors at the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.