Sino-Russia alliance vs. US in Ukraine

By Kim Sang-woo

The Ukraine crisis has not moved any closer to a diplomatic solution or a reduction of tensions on the Ukrainian-Russian border.

Russian officials have made clear that they are not interested in proposals focused on strategic stability or a moratorium on NATO membership for Ukraine, but rather want nothing short of the complete dismantling of Europe's post-Cold War security architecture and a rollback of international agreements governing states' right to self-determination, which the U.S. and its partners will never accept.

Meanwhile, despite assurances that Russia has no plans to "invade" Ukraine, its buildup of more than 130,000 troops and military equipment along the Ukrainian-Russian border has continued unabated.

President Joe Biden predicted that his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin would ultimately decide on some form of invasion or incursion. "Do I think he'll test the West, test the United States and NATO, as significantly as he can? Yes, I think he will," the president said at a press conference. "My guess is he will move in."

If diplomacy fails, what happens depends largely on how Putin decides he can best achieve his ultimate goals: crippling Ukrainian military capabilities, sowing turmoil in the Ukrainian government and ultimately turning Ukraine into a failed state ― which would bring an end to Ukraine as an intractable adversary and a serious security challenge. Putin won't accept a thriving and prosperous democracy in the cradle of East Slavic civilization that could provide Russian citizens with an attractive framework for a democratic transition of their own.

During the standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine, Chinese diplomatic rhetoric has been "firmly in Russia's corner," as The Washington Post put it. The relationship between Moscow and Beijing, for all intents and purposes, has now become what Putin described in December 2021: "the best it has been in history." Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi went even further in July, saying: "Russia and China were not allies, but better than allies!"

On Feb. 4 in Beijing, just hours before the opening of the Winter Olympics, President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin proclaimed to the world the importance of their 38th personal meeting. They released a joint statement declaring that "a trend has emerged toward redistribution of power in the world" ― namely toward them, and away from the United States and its democratic partners and allies.

The rough summary of the statement is: Russia and China are throwing in their lot with each other in an unprecedented manner in each other's regions and around the world.

Russia and China are not calling their partnership an alliance of the NATO variety: "The new inter-state relations between Russia and China are superior to the political and military alliance of the Cold War era. Friendship between the two states has no limits, and there are no 'forbidden' areas of cooperation."

The two sides are redefining the meaning of "democracy" to embrace their repressive authoritarian systems that censor the media, prohibit dissent, lock up political opponents and support like-minded authoritarian systems.

"Russia and China as world powers with rich cultural and historical heritage have longstanding traditions of democracy, which rely on millennia of experience in development, broad popular support and consideration of the needs and interests of citizens."

The two leaders believe they have the momentum ― in a world where major liberal democracies have weakened, the U.S. is politically divided, and new technologies are empowering them to surveil and control their societies.

Without more aggressive and consistent pushback from Western democracies, expect more Chinese- Russian pushes forward. It would be a mistake to see the Ukrainian crisis as an isolated incident.

In this vein, the Biden administration has been working to assemble an international coalition to deliver a swift and effective economic response to a Russian invasion. In the face of this global threat, the U.S. has focused on its European allies who are directly involved with Ukraine.

But also, U.S. allies in Asia can play an important role in strengthening the sanctions regime.

Not only are they critical nodes in global economic networks that could be major battlegrounds in the struggle with Russia ― particularly since the U.S. is considering applying export controls used against Huawei previously to deter Russia ― but Japan and South Korea are also robust multi-party democracies.

As the Biden administration seeks to mobilize democracies to counter attempts by Russia, China and other authoritarian governments to undermine the rules-based international order, securing the active cooperation of South Korea and Japan would show that the right to self-government is what is at stake in Ukraine.

If Russia is able to undermine Ukraine's fragile democracy and escape serious consequences, it will set a troubling precedent that could ultimately upset Asia's democracies.

While the U.S. should not expect that South Korea and Japan will assume leadership roles in a global coalition to counter a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the principles at stake in Ukraine ― national self-determination free from coercion, the durability of global norms against the use of force to seize territory and the prospect of authoritarianism on the march against the U.S.-led international rules-based order ― are relevant to East Asia.

Most importantly, the participation of South Korea and Japan in a global response would increase its effectiveness and also signal that Asia's democracies are increasingly unwilling to compromise their principles for the sake of commercial advantages.

In retrospect, perhaps the biggest mistake Western strategists have made has been to separate the Chinese and Russian challenges to the post-Cold War international order, as distinct and only loosely related.

Some analysts argue that the "three-decade-old nightmare" has become reality as "Beijing and Moscow have ganged up on America."

But as Mark Twain might have pointed out, "Even if history rhymes from time to time it rarely if ever repeats itself!"

Kim Sang-woo (swkim54@hotmail.com) is a former lawmaker and is currently chairman of the East Asia Cultural Project. He is also a member of the board of directors at the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.