The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
  • World Expo 2030
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to President
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
  • World Expo 2030
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to President
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
  • Login
  • Register
  • Login
  • Register
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
  • 1

    Netflix apologizes for filming 'Single's Inferno 3' in marine sanctuary

  • 3

    In-N-Out Burger pop-up store attracts record crowd

  • 5

    Calls grow for female flight attendants to ditch skirts for pants

  • 7

    Hamburger franchises having trouble in M&A market

  • 9

    Man gets five-year jail term for K-pop concert ticket fraud

  • 11

    Small business owners urge stricter rules on migrant workers switching jobs

  • 13

    Transgender cyclist looks to spark debate in historic appearance

  • 15

    Pandas at Everland become tourist magnet

  • 17

    Nexon case reignites controversy over high level of inheritance tax

  • 19

    JYP to expand partnership with US music label

  • 2

    BTS' RM named honorary ambassador of war-remains excavation agency

  • 4

    'BLACKPINK the Game' showcases group's unique charm

  • 6

    EXO's Baekhyun, Xiumin and Chen in dispute with SM over contract issue

  • 8

    Pyongyang seeks to portray rocket as science effort by admitting failure: experts

  • 10

    Hallyu inspires Thailand to mull ways to export its culture

  • 12

    Police send girlfriend murder suspect to prosecution

  • 14

    From hardcore action to heart-throbbing romance, series to hit in June

  • 16

    Suspect in grisly Busan murder sent to prosecutors for further probe

  • 18

    S. Korea succeeds in L-SAM missile interception test for 3rd time

  • 20

    INTERVIEWFrench photographer highlights amazing transformations of dog meat farm survivors

Close scrollclosebutton

Close for 24 hours

Open
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to President
  • Letter to the Editor
Sat, June 3, 2023 | 06:31
Guest Column
Is Putin bluffing about nukes?
Posted : 2022-09-29 17:00
Updated : 2022-09-29 17:00
Print PreviewPrint Preview
Font Size UpFont Size Up
Font Size DownFont Size Down
  • facebook
  • twitter
  • kakaolink
  • whatsapp
  • reddit
  • mailto
  • link

By Gwynne Dyer

Vladimir Putin's desperation was plain to see in the emergency measures he declared last week: immediate mobilization of at least 300,000 more troops, the sudden decision to use fake referendums to turn all the occupied parts of Ukraine into Russian territory, and more explicit threats than usual about nuclear weapons. "This is not a bluff," Putin warned.

It probably isn't. The Russian president's normal pattern, when he runs into a major setback, has been to escalate, so he is not acting out of character. However, he is clearly misinformed by his own generals, or just not listening to them.

The notion that 300,000 reservists (limited military training years ago) and technical specialists of various sorts (no military experience whatever) can be turned into a useful fighting force in a couple of weeks, or even a couple of months, is bizarre. It shows just how ignorant Putin is about military affairs.

The Russian army does not have the equipment to arm all these people, or even enough trainers not already at the front to turn them into real soldiers. When these mostly unwilling conscripts are fed piecemeal into an already demoralized army, they will make the chaos even worse.

Then there's the "referendums." Having postponed plans to stage referendums about joining Russia in the four provinces it partly controls, Putin suddenly put them back on the schedule after the big Ukrainian advances in mid-September. Voting began in Russian-occupied parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhiya and Kherson provinces last Friday.

Armed Russian soldiers went door-to-door with ballot boxes, asking if people want to join Russia. The soldiers wrote the answers down (one for the entire family), and then put them in the box.

The fix was already in; the question is why they bothered with this charade at all. Obviously, Putin needed to distract Russians from the recent military disaster, but he may also have had another reason to hurry the vote and annex all the land his troops now hold.

If the conquered regions became "Russian territory," then he could claim that any further attempt by Ukraine to recapture them is an attack on Russia itself. The Ukrainians would obviously ignore this legal flimflam ― but it would allow him (under Russian rules) to initiate the use of nuclear weapons.

Putin knows that the West knows how the Russian rules on nuclear weapons work, so he may hope that this will make his threats of nuclear war more plausible. It probably won't, but what do you get when you call the bluff of a man who doesn't bluff?

Maybe he's just trading on that reputation now, and he really is bluffing this time, but there's no point in following him down that rabbit hole. Let's consider what we know for certain.

Russia is currently losing the war in Ukraine, albeit slowly, and there's little chance that its army can turn that around. And 300,000 more ill-trained, resentful conscripts won't make much difference when the vessel they must be poured into, the Russian army, is already broken.

Putin's position and perhaps his life is at risk if there is another big Ukrainian victory. He may not realize this yet, but he will eventually understand that his survival depends on a negotiated peace that does not utterly humiliate him and Russia ― for example, a ceasefire that returns both sides to the pre-2014 ceasefire lines.

His problem will be that the Ukrainians are full of confidence at the moment, and not inclined to give him that. They want all their stolen territory back, and the only lever that might change their minds (and those of their Western supporters) is a nuclear strike on Ukraine.

All it would take is one very small (sub-kiloton-range) "tactical" nuclear weapon delivered on sparsely populated land or off the Ukrainian coast. It couldn't be more than that, because the generals in the Russian chain of command would not accept orders for a bigger strike that might start a full nuclear war. They may be corrupt, but most of them love their families.

They might go for just one nuke, especially if Putin could persuade them that it was a reasonably safe diplomatic ploy aimed at forcing the Ukrainians or even NATO to the negotiating table. So what should the latter parties do if this happens?

The key fact to keep in mind is that the same Russian generals would probably not escalate further if NATO made no nuclear response to that single Russian nuke. They'd just wait for the terror and revulsion sweeping through Russia and every other country to take Putin down.

Can I guarantee that would happen? Of course not, but it probably would play out like that. And what would be lost by waiting to see if it does happen?


Gwynne Dyer (gwynne763121476@aol.com
) is the author of "The Shortest History of War."


 
wooribank
Top 10 Stories
1Roland Garros 2023 Roland Garros 2023
2Airlines fiercely compete to acquire additional aircraft Airlines fiercely compete to acquire additional aircraft
3More banks offer daily interest payments on deposits More banks offer daily interest payments on deposits
4Hyundai Elevator launches AI, IoT-powered maintenance service Hyundai Elevator launches AI, IoT-powered maintenance service
5Seoul imposes sanctions on North Korean hacking group for role in space launch Seoul imposes sanctions on North Korean hacking group for role in space launch
6POSCO, GM expand joint EV battery materials investment in North America POSCO, GM expand joint EV battery materials investment in North America
7LG Chem joins Korean firms strengthening ties with Japan LG Chem joins Korean firms strengthening ties with Japan
8HMM tasked with preventing sale of Hyundai LNG to foreign firm HMM tasked with preventing sale of Hyundai LNG to foreign firm
9Korean stocks feared to lose steam on prolonged trade deficit, real estate doldrums Korean stocks feared to lose steam on prolonged trade deficit, real estate doldrums
10KAERI distances itself from Oxford professor's claim on Fukushima water KAERI distances itself from Oxford professor's claim on Fukushima water
Top 5 Entertainment News
1'HyeMiLeeYeChaePa' producer Lee Tae-kyung hopeful of second season 'HyeMiLeeYeChaePa' producer Lee Tae-kyung hopeful of second season
2How artist Michael Rakowitz resurrects lost past of Iraq through food packaging How artist Michael Rakowitz resurrects lost past of Iraq through food packaging
3From hardcore action to heart-throbbing romance, series to hit in June From hardcore action to heart-throbbing romance, series to hit in June
4[INTERVIEW] Lee Jun-hyuk unrecognizable in 'The Roundup: No Way Out' INTERVIEWLee Jun-hyuk unrecognizable in 'The Roundup: No Way Out'
5'Elemental' director on bringing his personal story of immigration to cinema 'Elemental' director on bringing his personal story of immigration to cinema
DARKROOM
  • Turkey-Syria earthquake

    Turkey-Syria earthquake

  • Nepal plane crash

    Nepal plane crash

  • Brazil capital uprising

    Brazil capital uprising

  • Happy New Year 2023

    Happy New Year 2023

  • World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

    World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

CEO & Publisher : Oh Young-jin
Digital News Email : webmaster@koreatimes.co.kr
Tel : 02-724-2114
Online newspaper registration No : 서울,아52844
Date of registration : 2020.02.05
Masthead : The Korea Times
Copyright © koreatimes.co.kr. All rights reserved.
  • About Us
  • Introduction
  • History
  • Contact Us
  • Products & Services
  • Subscribe
  • E-paper
  • RSS Service
  • Content Sales
  • Site Map
  • Policy
  • Code of Ethics
  • Ombudsman
  • Privacy Statement
  • Terms of Service
  • Copyright Policy
  • Family Site
  • Hankook Ilbo
  • Dongwha Group