US-China competition

By Lee Seong-hyon

South Korea's diplomacy for the last two years has had only one singular and desperate focus: North Korea. Virtually nothing else. Now, it is completely unprepared for the trade war between the United States and China that is more properly characterized as a component of their bigger rivalry for global leadership. Lacking a guiding principle and national strategy for the big power rivalry, Seoul should buckle up for the tectonic geopolitical ride that will jolt the nation in the years to come.

Trump ratcheted up his trade war with China, raising U.S. tariffs to 25 percent on $200 billion of imported Chinese goods. Beijing has struck back at Washington with its own tariffs, making good on its promise to retaliate.

What will happen from now on? Is this a bluffing strategy by Washington and Beijing before they arrive at a deal? Probably not. It's better to err on the side of caution.

The U.S.-China relationship today is locked in a structural competition. Even if we see restraint in the trade war, it will only be a temporary stopgap. The situation will soon deteriorate, and then another temporary patch, and then again will deteriorate, not just in trade, but in widening other areas: big data, artificial intelligence, 5G, bioscience, cybersecurity, the South China Sea, Taiwan, human rights, religious freedom, freedom of the press, counterintelligence, influence campaigns, North Korea, competition in the Arctic areas and even space.

The former complementary trade relationship also prevented them from going into a conflict. In other words, "trade" functioned as a stabilizer in the relationship between the U.S. and China, which are so fundamentally different from each other in terms of ideology, worldviews and ways of life.

The stabilizer in the U.S.-China relationship is gone now. This is why we shouldn't underestimate the grave nature of the trade war.

Some pundits predict China will back down. I doubt it. If China does so, it will be a tactical move, not strategic. It's useful to pay attention to the state-controlled CCTV commentary on May 13. It's worth reading, because it's revealing.

"Faced with the American strategy of carrots and sticks, China already offered an answer. If Americans want to talk, we'll talk. The doors are wide open. If Americans strike, we'll also strike till the end (feng pei dao di)," it said.

"The Chinese nation has gone through a series of difficulties in their 5,000-year history. It has experienced all kinds of battles. In the process of realizing the great rejuvenation of the nation, there will be difficulties and obstacles, even terrifying storms."

Then comes the following: "The trade war, started by the U. S., is a mere bump on the road to China's development. Not a big deal! (mei shenme da buliao). China will use this crisis as an opportunity. It will use this opportunity to test its strength, and make the country become even stronger."

One can see that the Chinese state TV is drumming up angry propaganda with war rhetoric. What is worrisome is that the propaganda frames the conflict with the U.S. as the great Chinese people's struggle on a path to actualize the rejuvenation of the great Chinese nation. This propaganda works effectively in China. It is also in line with the current Chinese leader Xi Jinping's thinking, based on his various speeches over the years.

The reason Koreans pay attention to the escalating tension between the U.S. and China is because it lost its statehood over a century ago when it lacked diplomatic wisdom and awareness of the surrounding geopolitical landscape. At that time, it was preoccupied with internal political infighting, economic difficulties, and most of all, the nation's leadership didn't pay enough attention to the towering geopolitical ripples powerful neighbors were making against each other. It gives an eerie feeling that there are similarities today.

Some say South Korea today is a "middle power" with the world's 11th economy. It is no longer a "shrimp," pinched between the whales. They argue that South Korea has now grown to become a dolphin. Well, these people haven't seen a National Geographic documentary that shows a killer whale throwing a dolphin in the air before squashing it under the water.

Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute.

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