By Lee Seong-hyon
When it comes to analyzing China, there are usually three-level approaches. One is to be mindful of China as a "Communist state" and try to draw any meaningful conclusions from there. The second is to focus on China's factional politics such as the "Princelings," or the "Shanghai Gang," or "Youth League Faction." The third approach is to look at China's top leader.
The fact that the world, more than ever, now pays attention to Xi Jinping, in our attempt to understand China's behavior, may be an indication of how much power is concentrated in the hands of one single person in the People's Republic of 1.4 billion people.
Indeed, the art of understanding China by figuring out Xi is increasingly becoming a mainstay these days, especially in the U.S.-China rivalry context and with China's more assertive behavior at large, including China's controversial "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy.
Some view that China's problem is the problem of Xi, who "prematurely" challenged the world's current reigning superpower, the United States. Others believe that Xi "already has a plan," to quote the famous phrase from the film, "Parasite," regarding how to erode and eventually outstrip America's status in the world.
While the degree of Xi's "preparation" for this ambition is debatable, both camps, at least, converge on one thing: Xi appears to be in a great hurry to establish China's global supremacy. Why the rush?
For instance, during the annual "Two Sessions" meeting of the Chinese Communist Party in March, China announced its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25). The announcement of this five-year plan, by itself, was no news and was well-expected. However, the Xi government also announced its long-term 2035 plan to achieve so-called "modern socialism."
Why announce a plan that is nearly 15 years away?
"Previously, we usually set five-year plans, but this time we mentioned the 'long-range goals for 2035' for the first time. The time span extended from five years to 15 years. That shows we have become more strategic," explains Yang Xuedong, a professor of political science at Tsinghua University, as carried by the state-controlled Global Times.
Xi named the period leading up to the year 2035 as "a major strategic development period" that is likely to decide the trajectory of the U.S.-China rivalry. To facilitate the goal, China has put into operation a project called, "China Standards 2035" (zhognguo biaozhun 2035), which is aimed at setting China-led global industrial standards in the areas of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, blockchain and 6G, to name a few.
Externally, Xi sees that the West is in a state of accelerated decline, providing a strategic opportunity for China's rise. Domestically, this period is also a critical one for China to overcome the "middle-income trap" and resolve the expected labor shortage issue in its aging society, through the fourth industrial revolution and manufacturing automation.
In short, the answer lies in Xi's belief that the next 15 years will be the most critical period in deciding China's fate.
Jude Blanchette, a Washington-based China expert, thinks that Xi Jinping feels a "sense of urgency" because he believes that there is a very "narrow window" of strategic opportunity during which China can take advantage of this aforementioned technological and geopolitical transformation, which will cement China's future destiny.
Xi clearly sees himself as "a figure of historical significance, on whom the CCP's fate rests," according to Blanchette in his recent Foreign Affairs piece.
Xi doesn't have much time to accomplish such a historic mission. He will be 82 in 2035. Thus, instead of merely waiting for America's power to decline naturally, Xi wants to speed up China's rise, by mobilizing the whole nation to actualize the lofty "Chinese Dream."
For some people, Xi reminds them of Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward movement during the Cold War era, in which he tried to outdo the West in industrial prowess, by mobilizing the whole nation.
Blanchette points out that there is no one in today's China who dares point out Xi's hubris. "This is a recipe for disaster," he said.
Blanchette stops short of saying that Xi is suffering from a Messiah Complex, but Xi's sense of urgency not to miss out on this strategic window of opportunity, and his sense of himself as a historic figure to steer China's future destiny, he argues, is leading China "in a more inward and paranoid direction."
What Xi likely does not understand, Blanchette argues, is that "he himself may be the biggest obstacle" for China's long-term success.
Lee Seong-hyon, Ph.D. (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), is an ICAS fellow in Washington, D.C., and the author of the book, "The U.S.-China Competition: Who Will Rule the World?" (2019).
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The fact that the world, more than ever, now pays attention to Xi Jinping, in our attempt to understand China's behavior, may be an indication of how much power is concentrated in the hands of one single person in the People's Republic of 1.4 billion people.
Indeed, the art of understanding China by figuring out Xi is increasingly becoming a mainstay these days, especially in the U.S.-China rivalry context and with China's more assertive behavior at large, including China's controversial "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy.
Some view that China's problem is the problem of Xi, who "prematurely" challenged the world's current reigning superpower, the United States. Others believe that Xi "already has a plan," to quote the famous phrase from the film, "Parasite," regarding how to erode and eventually outstrip America's status in the world.
While the degree of Xi's "preparation" for this ambition is debatable, both camps, at least, converge on one thing: Xi appears to be in a great hurry to establish China's global supremacy. Why the rush?
For instance, during the annual "Two Sessions" meeting of the Chinese Communist Party in March, China announced its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25). The announcement of this five-year plan, by itself, was no news and was well-expected. However, the Xi government also announced its long-term 2035 plan to achieve so-called "modern socialism."
Why announce a plan that is nearly 15 years away?
"Previously, we usually set five-year plans, but this time we mentioned the 'long-range goals for 2035' for the first time. The time span extended from five years to 15 years. That shows we have become more strategic," explains Yang Xuedong, a professor of political science at Tsinghua University, as carried by the state-controlled Global Times.
Xi named the period leading up to the year 2035 as "a major strategic development period" that is likely to decide the trajectory of the U.S.-China rivalry. To facilitate the goal, China has put into operation a project called, "China Standards 2035" (zhognguo biaozhun 2035), which is aimed at setting China-led global industrial standards in the areas of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, blockchain and 6G, to name a few.
Externally, Xi sees that the West is in a state of accelerated decline, providing a strategic opportunity for China's rise. Domestically, this period is also a critical one for China to overcome the "middle-income trap" and resolve the expected labor shortage issue in its aging society, through the fourth industrial revolution and manufacturing automation.
In short, the answer lies in Xi's belief that the next 15 years will be the most critical period in deciding China's fate.
Jude Blanchette, a Washington-based China expert, thinks that Xi Jinping feels a "sense of urgency" because he believes that there is a very "narrow window" of strategic opportunity during which China can take advantage of this aforementioned technological and geopolitical transformation, which will cement China's future destiny.
Xi clearly sees himself as "a figure of historical significance, on whom the CCP's fate rests," according to Blanchette in his recent Foreign Affairs piece.
Xi doesn't have much time to accomplish such a historic mission. He will be 82 in 2035. Thus, instead of merely waiting for America's power to decline naturally, Xi wants to speed up China's rise, by mobilizing the whole nation to actualize the lofty "Chinese Dream."
For some people, Xi reminds them of Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward movement during the Cold War era, in which he tried to outdo the West in industrial prowess, by mobilizing the whole nation.
Blanchette points out that there is no one in today's China who dares point out Xi's hubris. "This is a recipe for disaster," he said.
Blanchette stops short of saying that Xi is suffering from a Messiah Complex, but Xi's sense of urgency not to miss out on this strategic window of opportunity, and his sense of himself as a historic figure to steer China's future destiny, he argues, is leading China "in a more inward and paranoid direction."
What Xi likely does not understand, Blanchette argues, is that "he himself may be the biggest obstacle" for China's long-term success.
Lee Seong-hyon, Ph.D. (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), is an ICAS fellow in Washington, D.C., and the author of the book, "The U.S.-China Competition: Who Will Rule the World?" (2019).
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