By Nehginpao Kipgen
In its continued efforts to strengthen bilateral cooperation with neighboring economic powers, the Myanmarese (Burmese) government has to balance its diplomatic engagements between India and China, which are traditionally economic and political rivals.
Why is it important for Myanmar to appease these countries? How does this balancing act help the Myanmarese government? What does Myanmar need to do to improve its overall economic and political conditions?
With the aim of improving bilateral relations with India, Myanmarese President Thein Sein made a three-day visit to the neighbor last week. Thein Sein, a former military general, visited India in November 2008 as prime minister under the military junta of the State Peace and Development Council.
Thein Sein’s first visit as president of a nominal civilian government is significant for two important reasons. First, the new government, although still dominated by former military generals, is seeking to improve its international image by pursuing democratic reform. Second, the Myanmarese government apparently irked the Chinese government, India’s traditional rival, by halting a $3.6 billion worth hydroelectric project in Kachin State in a surprise announcement made on Sept. 30.
Whenever a high profile Myanmarese official visits India, it has the tradition of three major anticipations: protests by Myanmarese exiles in New Delhi; a curiosity as to what significant development may emerge from the bilateral talks; and what implication(s) it might have on Myanmar-China relations.
The visit came at a time when there are glimmers of hope for democratic change in Myanmar under the Union Solidarity and Development Party. The visit was considered mutually beneficial and important enough for the two nations to strengthen their strategic partnership.
Ahead of this high-level visit, the two countries have engaged in a series of low-level official meetings. At the request of the Indian government, the Myanmarese army, in early September, attacked the camps of northeast Indian insurgents based in the Sagaing Division, northwest Myanmar.
The Indian government anticipates a security agreement under which a joint military operation can be launched to dismantle and destroy these insurgents. India hopes to reach a deal with Myanmar, similar to the agreements reached with Bangladesh and Bhutan, to launch major military operations.
Under the aegis of its “look east” policy, India’s policy toward Myanmar has changed significantly ― from support for the pro-democracy movement to engaging the pro-military government. The policy shift began during the Congress government of Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao in 1991, and was augmented by the Bhartiya Janata Party government under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee (1998-2004). India has been criticized by the Myanmarese opposition and Western democracies for not speaking up on human rights and democratic reform.
The salient features of Indian foreign policy vis-a-vis Myanmar can be summarized under three main subjects: seeking Myanmar’s help in suppressing insurgency problems in northeast India; countering China's growing influence in the region; and expanding its international market in Southeast Asia via Myanmar.
By engaging Myanmar, India plans to maximize its security and national interest. Myanmar, the only Southeast Asian country to share 1,643 kilometers boundary in four northeast Indian states and a maritime boundary, serves as India’s gateway to other 10-member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Because of its strategic location and proximity to China, it is crucial for India to befriend Myanmar.
While Western democracies see some signs of democratic reform, and begin to cautiously appreciate the Myanmarese government, it is important for the world’s largest democratic nation to demonstrate its support for human rights and democratic reform, besides its other interests.
In an attempt to explain and remedy any potential misunderstanding arising out of President Thein Sein’s order to suspend the Myitsone dam, the Myanmarese government is sending a delegation led by Vice President Tin Aung Myint Oo to China from Oct. 21 to 26, a few days after Sein’s return from India.
The vice president will be accompanied by cabinet members, including a minister in-charge of electric power, and leading businesspeople, including Tun Myint Naing, chairman of the Asia World Construction Company, a major subcontractor on the Myitsone dam project.
The dam, developed by China Power Investment, is the first of seven to be built on the Irrawaddy River. The dam is designed to provide electricity to Yunnan Province in China. The suspension was announced because of massive opposition from thousands of the affected people and environmentalists.
China has huge interests in a natural resource-rich Myanmar, which is evident from a range of its investments from hydropower to mining to natural gas, with bidding competition from India. China, the biggest lender to Myanmar, invested $10 billion during the 2010-2011 fiscal year. New loans worth $7.4 billion have also been announced in the past couple of years.
In this diplomatic balancing act, the goal of the Myanmarese government is to be able to cooperate with both India and China. It needs the support and partnership of both countries for two similar reasons ― economics and politics. Besides receiving financial assistance, Nay Pyi Taw has convinced New Delhi to remain reticent on sensitive political issues.
On the other hand, Beijing has remained a faithful partner and supporter when Myanmar needed it most at the U.N. Security Council in January 2007 by vetoing a draft resolution ― demanding the release of all political prisoners; initiating a widespread political dialogue; and ending military attacks and human rights abuses against ethnic minorities.
Because of similar interests and geographical proximity to Myanmar, both India and China are likely to remain engaged and continue their investments (of varying degrees) regardless of what may have emerged from the visits of Thein Sein and Tin Aung Myint Oo to the two countries.
However, if Myanmar chooses to build a strong diplomatic relationship with Western democracies, particularly the United States, Nay Pyi Taw will have to make policy adjustments, including sacrifices. Bilateral trade and economic investment from New Delhi and Beijing alone cannot resolve Myanmar’s economic woes.
Moreover, for Myanmar to be fully integrated into global society, Western sanctions have to be lifted. In order for that to happen, Nay Pyi Taw must speed up the democratic reform process and address the concerns of the international community, even if such steps entail severing ties with the two Asian giants ― India and China.
Nehginpao Kipgen is a researcher on the rise of political conflicts in modern Myanmar and general secretary of the U.S.-based Kuki International Forum (www.kukiforum.com). He can be reached at nehginpao@gmail.com.