By Brittany Damora
Thailand is gearing up for an election that will do little on its own to end years of polarized politics and social divisions. Tensions are rising in Bangkok over fears of a resurgence in violence and even the possibility of a coup. However, it is imperative to examine the rules of the political game in the country and how they have changed.
The color-coded conflict can no longer be viewed as a ready-made division between those yellow-shirted urban middle class critics of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his red-shirted northern and populist supporters.
Many are incorrectly predicting the July 3 poll to be closely fought but the winner is already set. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s cash-rich and military-supported Democrat Party is highly likely to succeed, which is why he has been so willing to hold polls six months before his term ends.
With no other broadly-based opposition party to support, the Puea Thai Party will serve as the electoral vehicle for the country’s Red Shirt movement ― the supporters of populist former leader Thaksin who present the Democrat Party with its principal challenge.
Key to this new development is the role of the military. It will not launch a coup if the Democrat Party secures victory over the Red Shirts.
Abhisit's Democrat Party government is the product of the last coup in 2006. The military must therefore be considered politically motivated at all times, particularly with General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who was accused of removing any senior officers in league with Thaksin and the Red Shirts, as the military’s head.
The fighting at the Cambodian border has presented the army with an opportunity to galvanize national sentiment behind it.
After last years’ violent protests that killed 91 people there are fears that the election will push the country toward violence again. However, while these fears are understandable they are also misplaced.
The likelihood of renewed violence is lowered by the military’s firm control and its firm assurance that it will never again allow a Thaksin-connected government in power. Moreover, many involved in last year's demonstrations feel they lost politically and economically ― and the Red Shirt movement has fragmented since then and is under close official surveillance.
In the longer term, however, the Red Shirts may indeed regroup and pose a more direct challenge to the establishment in an effort to provoke a response once the election has passed. This in turn could result in a more brutal crackdown, which could then prompt targeted assassinations and growing resistance.
The more radical among the Red Shirts’ plans for agitation could be stifled by their inability to work without the Thaksin-influenced Puea Thai Party that has divided the organization.
On the one hand there is an authentic belief in democracy and parliamentary rule in the group and on the other hand there is a more radical faction that has forced a revision of the mainstream movement.
Indeed, the election, with Abhisit’s victory secured by military backing, will not be an opportunity to heal political divisions, a long-term problem.
On the positive side, however, despite the potential for future social rifts and government dysfunction, after last year’s violence Thailand recorded the highest GDP growth in South East Asia with a private sector that had learned to operate under the long-standing political and social conditions.
What remains to be seen in the longer term is whether the Red Shirts will be able to disengage from Thaksin and form an independent non-violent political challenge that reflects the aspirations of their rural supporters ― without alienating the urban middle classes who have done well under the current regime.
Brittany Damora is a risk consultant based in London and Singapore with AKE Ltd., an international security and risk-analysis firm. She can be reached at Brittany.Damora@akegroup.com.