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Standoff Over Arms Sales to Taiwan

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By Frank Ching

Journalist, Commentator in Hong Kong

Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi has denied that China is being unnecessarily ``tough'' with the United States, insisting that it is Washington that has damaged bilateral ties by selling arms to Taiwan and receiving the Dalai Lama.

However, what happened in the past two months has been happening for decades. The policy of selling weapons to Taiwan goes back to the establishment of Sino-American relations in 1979. The custom of receiving the Dalai Lama goes back for almost two decades.

What has changed is not American policy. What has changed is that China has grown stronger and expects changes in American behavior. It is loud in demanding that the United States must respect its ``core interests.''

However, China being a pragmatic power should realize that if it really wants the United States to halt or to reduce arms supplies to Taiwan, it is not enough to insist on its ``core interests.''

It must try to understand the American position and find a way to make it possible for the United States to change its policy.

Having lived with the arms sales issue for over three decades, Chinese officials know that the Obama administration is obliged by law to help Taiwan defend itself.

Beijing points out that relations between Taiwan and the mainland have improved dramatically since Ma Ying-jeou became president of the island in 2008.

True, in theory, relaxation of cross-strait tensions should reduce the need to provide weapons to Taiwan. However, while many people expected that China would reduce the number of its missiles threatening Taiwan, the opposite has happened.

In the almost two years of the Ma presidency, China has increased the number of missiles targeting Taiwan. The Chinese position is that these missiles will only be dismantled after peace talks with Taiwan prove successful.

That is to say, China is strengthening its hand before talking to Taiwan. Meanwhile, it wants to weaken Taiwan's hand by shutting off its supply of advanced weapons.

But America's commitment to Taiwan is linked to its entire concept of foreign relations and defense.

The United States has military alliances around the world and, while Taiwan technically is not an ally since the mutual defense treaty was terminated in 1980, Washington through the Taiwan Relations Act assumed the obligation of helping in the defense of Taiwan.

The United States feels that if it does not live up to its commitment to Taiwan, other allies in the region, such as Japan and South Korea, will wonder about the value of their military alliance with Washington.

So, while China says Taiwan is its core interest, the island is a matter of great importance for the United States as well. Indeed, its commitment to Taiwan may be considered as a core interest since it is linked to how Washington will be perceived by its allies around the world.

It could be that this is only a question of perception. It may be that American allies in Europe do not regard Washington's treatment of Taiwan as a litmus test of whether the United States is a dependable ally.

But those in Asia are certainly very much aware of Chinese pressure and are watching to see how the United States reacts.

If China wishes the United States to end its decades-long policy of arms sales to Taiwan, it should try to convince Washington that the need for arms sales to Taiwan no longer exists, or at least is no longer pressing.

This is something that Beijing can control. It must reduce the sense of vulnerability in Taiwan by showing that it is not a threat to the island's security. After all, if Taiwan stops requesting arms, the United States will stop selling them.

China's current policy of building up its military capability in a very visible way is counterproductive since it stokes fears in Taiwan, resulting in requests for American weaponry, which inevitably lead to arms sales.

China has stated repeatedly that its policy is to resolve the Taiwan issue by peaceful means. If it is serious about this policy, there should be no need to threaten military action. Such threats make it almost impossible for the United States to stop arms sales.

Beijing has said that after reunification an autonomous Taiwan can maintain its own armed forces. That presupposes an ability to acquire weapons from abroad.

Paradoxically, therefore, American arms sales to Taiwan may well continue even after there is a cross-straits political accommodation. But then, presumably, this will take place with Beijing's blessings.

Frank Ching is a journalist and commentator in Hong Kong. He can be reached at Frank.ching@gmail.com.