By Andy Jackson
Aside from the candidates themselves, there were several winners and losers in last week's by-elections.
Chung showed in his National Assembly race victory that he is still a force to be reckoned with. Not only did he destroy his Democratic Party opponent, getting over 70 percent of the vote while running as an independent, he formed an alliance that helped another independent defeat his Democratic Party foe.
While Democratic Party leaders have said they will not accept Chung back into the party, he still has strong supporters among rank-and-file members. The Democrats will eventually have to take Chung back or face yet another intra-party rift.
The NPP split from the Democratic Labor Party ahead of last year's general elections, but failed to win any seats in the National Assembly. With the election of Cho Seung-soo in Ulsan, the NPP finally gets its foot in the door and will have a chance to build on Cho's success in next year's local elections.
While the DLP candidate withdrew from the Ulsan National Assembly race to prevent a splitting of the progressive vote there, the party quietly won local races in Gwangju and South Jeolla Province over Democratic Party opponents. This is an expansion out of their traditional stronghold in the southeast.
As the disarray within the Democratic Party continues, the DLP will have a chance to expand their footholds in the southwest in local elections next year. That is especially true if they can develop a formal arrangement with the NPP not to run candidates in the same districts.
Park was perhaps the biggest winner of last week's by-elections. She could not have gotten a better result.
First, the independent candidate she supported (though not officially, of course) cruised to an easy win over the Grand National Party (GNP) nominee, thereby weakening Lee Myung-bak. The drubbing the party received across the board, winning only one of 13 contested races nationwide, has weakened the current leadership further.
President Lee and the GNP leadership's lose is Parks gain as her position within the party has been strengthened. That increased power will aid her against a possible challenge from a capital area opponent (such as Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Moon-su or Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon) for the party's presidential nomination in 2012.
Park must also be pleased with the success of Chung Dong-young. While Chung clearly has strong support from people on his political home turf and among some progressives, his failures as a party leader and a candidate in 2006, 2007 and 2008 showed the limit of his appeal. His win last week makes Chung the current favorite to get the Democratic nomination for president in 2012. Park cannot help but smile at the prospect of having Chung as her main opponent.
There are no two ways about it ― the GNP received a thorough thrashing last week. Secretary-General Ahn Kyung-ryul has already offered to resign over the debacle, but that may not be enough to satisfy critics in the party. Even if Park does manage to hold on to his job, he has been weakened.
The GNP remains the most popular political party in Korea, although that says more about the weakness of the rest of the field than the strength of the GNP. The problem is that Lee, while not as unpopular as previous president Roh Moo-hyun was, has become a drag on the party image. Every GNP candidate begins a political campaign at a disadvantage to the extent that he or she can be tied to the current president.
That reality will encourage party members to assert their differences from Lee in order to help their own political futures. If the trend continues through future by-elections and next year's local elections, Lee will find it increasingly difficult to push his agenda in the National Assembly.
Chung has played up the Democrat's one National Assembly victory in Incheon, saying it gives them ``a mandate to play a role as the largest opposition party in the National Assembly."
However, Chung Dong-young's comeback will exacerbate divisions within the party. Chairman Chung must also be worrying about possible Democratic Labor Party inroads into the Democrat's regional base in the southwest in next year's local elections. The Democrat chairman is in for a year of headaches.
Both parties were shut out in National Assembly and local races in their respective home courts. GNP candidates went 0-3 in the eastern half of the country and the Democrats were 0-4 in competitive races in the southwest. Both parties clearly need to learn not to take local voters for granted when choosing candidates in their respective regional bases.
Stay tuned for more drama in the next round of by-elections in October.
Andy Jackson has taught courses on American government and has been writing on Korean politics and other issues for four years. He can be reached at andyinrok@lycos.com.