By Michael Breen
The sudden threat this month by North Korea to shut the Gaeseong industrial site from next week and expel South Koreans working there is a clear reminder of why countries, companies and banks should not invest in the country.
Political risk in North Korea is such that an investor's chances of not being expelled and not losing his money are low.
Given this, you would think that only a raving lunatic would risk wealth and reputation dealing with North Korea, but it is surprising how many smart and well―meaning people get seduced into parting with them.
Ethnic Koreans are the most vulnerable due to family connections and the delusion that they can contribute to unification. The South Korean government itself is also at risk. It is in a difficult position, given its responsibility to residents in its jurisdiction, including non―Koreans, to weigh engagement with the North in the interests of lowering the security risk against the wise use of our tax money.
(The only exception to the above warning would be to those who are either out to live an exciting life, such as foreign language editors who get to proofread the Dear Leader's speeches, or those who have an ulterior motive, such as spying or subversion. These virtuous endeavors should be encouraged).
As readers of this organ will know, North Korea is threatening to close its borders this time in response to the refusal by civic groups to stop sending propaganda leaflets and dollar bills across the border. The activists doing this are North Korean defectors and families of South Koreans allegedly kidnapped by the North.
The fact they've been sending leaflets since 2003 is clear evidence that the NorKs, as bloggers call North Koreans, are just using this as an excuse to pressure the government of President Lee Myung―bak. MB's crime is that he doesn't pay much attention to North Korea on the grounds that there is little point in doing so. This is a good policy.
That's not to say that the civic groups are not annoying to the North. They are. This, too, is good. Their flyers, which get sent over by balloon, contain exciting facts such as that the communists started the Korean War and tabloid gossip about Kim Jong―il's wives, children and diet.
This public service is very well meaning. North Koreans don't know Kim Il―sung, Jong―il's father and the leader at the time, started the war, because he had to lie about that in order to avoid losing his job. As we know in the free world, a lot of people at the top are liars.
They also don't know much about their leader because their incredibly dull newspapers tell them very little. For example, they'll get told when he gets a telex (yes, they use them) from some leader in Cuba or a month after he visits a farm, but not the interesting stuff. You didn't see stories during the famine in the '90s in North Korean media like, ``How come the Dear Leader is fat?" I just Googled The Pyongyang Times and found this top story from February 16 this year (his birthday): ``DPRK shines under the leadership of brilliant commander." See what I mean?
But are these flyers that scary? It is a constant source of amazement to me how tough guys with nuclear weapons jump up on their desks and shriek like schoolgirls escaping from a mouse over such minor things as leaflets.
I'm trying to think of a parallel and the best I can come up with would be America closing down GM Daewoo because of cartoons in South Korean papers of George Bush. Note that GM is bankrupt while its Korean operation is stellar.
In responding to this, governments have to behave sensibly, as police do when someone is holding a gun to his own head. ``Now, Jimmy - can I call you Jimmy? - I know you're hurting, but wouldn't it be better if you put the gun down and we could talk about it all?"
But individuals, and South Koreans often make this mistake, are not government officials. I'm not suggesting we behave meanly and shout ``Shoot, you freak." But we should not be proposing a joint venture.
Michael Breen is chairman of Insight Communications Consultants Exclusive Partner of FD International. He can be reached at mike.breen@insightcomms.com