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| An Asiana Airlines Boeing 777 on the runway at San Francisco International Airport after crash landing, Saturday. The jet's belly was surrounded by firefighters. / AFP-Yonhap |
Determining exact cause of accident may take years
By Kim Jae-won
Experts remain unsure of what caused the crash of Asiana Airlines Flight 214 at San Francisco International Airport, but they agree that it will take a long time to determine ― maybe from six months to a couple of years.
They say some changes at the airport ― such as shutdown of an instrument landing system (ILS) and the moving of the runway to the left a month ago ― may have confused the pilots.
At the same time, they also do not rule out the possibility that there could have been a malfunction of the aircraft.
However, some point the finger at the pilot's inexperience with the aircraft and airport. Even though the pilots are veterans, they were new to the Boeing 777 aircraft and the airport. A National Transport and Safety Board (NTSB) spokeswoman said that according to the cockpit flight recorder the pilot was flying the aircraft into the San Francisco airport for the first time, and on realizing the approach speed was too low attempted to abort and do a "go around."
Asiana said the pilot in charge of Flight 214 was in transition training for the aircraft.
Co-pilot Lee Kang-kuk, 46, had 43 hours of experience in piloting this type of aircraft and overall had more than 9,000 hours of flight time.
"It's true that Lee was on transition training for the Boeing 777", an Asiana spokeswoman told AFP.
But he was accompanied by an experienced lead pilot, she said.
A former inspector general of the U.S. Department of Transportation suggested pilot error may have caused the crash, which claimed at least two people's lives.
"I have worked about a dozen cases like this but all others were in bad weather. This is the only sunny day where a visual approach ended in a disaster. It looks like pilot error at this point," said Mary Shiavo, who served as the inspector general of the Transportation Department from 1990 to 1996, in an e-mail interview with The Korea Times.
The government officer-turned-legal expert who now works for law firm Motley Rice pointed out the possibility of insufficient practice in landing the 777 may have been behind the tragedy.
"It was a beautiful clear day with little wind so there was no reason to think a 777 pilot could not land the plane visually. Except, that they don't routinely do it and have often not practiced such a landing particularly at San Francisco where they were coming in across water on a hot day ― that makes the plane sink faster than you sometimes expect."
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Runway problems?
But Bob Coffman, an American Airlines captain, told The Associated Press that the ILS for runway 28 left had been shut down since June, and the the runway had been moved 300 feet (91 meters) to the west to accommodate construction at the airport.
"The change in the runway line might have added an element of confusion to the landing, he said.
The veteran pilot added that it would be standard procedure for pilots to create their own glide path before landing, but the computer's database relies on where the runway normally begins.
"Moving the runway threshold would invalidate the computer-generated slope," Coffman said.
He noted that without the ILS, and with information on hand that the threshold had been moved, it's likely that the pilots of the Asiana plane were landing using other instruments and a greater reliance on visual cues.
Chesley Sullenberger, a retired commercial pilot who landed the "Miracle on the Hudson" flight in New York, told American KCBS-TV that runway construction at the San Francisco airport may be a factor the NTSB will examine.
Sullenberger, now a CBS News aviation and safety analyst, said the construction mandated by the Federal Aviation Administration was designed to move the runway further from the seawall which the jet struck.
"It's too early to say if the construction is going to be a factor in this case, but it certainly is something they'd be looking at," Sullenberger said.
Possibility of aircraft malfunction
Some experts did not rule out the possibility of a malfunction in the Boeing-777. Song Byung-heum, a professor at Korea Aerospace University, told a local daily, that "The pilot may have tried to gain altitude because power plunged drastically due to engine problems."
However, Yoon Young-Doo, the CEO of Seoul-based Asiana Airlines, said Sunday that "currently we understand that there were no engine or mechanical problems" with the plane bought in 2006. Yoon also defended his pilots, saying experienced pilots flew the aircraft complying strictly with aviation regulations.
Jeong Yoon-shik, a professor at Jungwon University in Geosan, North Chungcheong Province, said the tail of the aircraft may have hit the seawall as the pilot tried to gain altitude.
"If the airplane landed directly on the runway without such an attempt, it may have avoided hitting the seawall," said Jeong who formerly worked as a pilot at Asiana.
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said that it will take at least six months and possibly about two years to analyze the black boxes from of the aircraft. The ministry sent four investigators to the U.S. who will cooperate with the NTSB.
Passengers can file civil lawsuits
Meanwhile, Shiavo said that Asiana pilots will not be subject to criminal charges in the U.S. over the crash.
"Making a mistake flying a plane, even if deadly is not usually a criminal offense in the U.S. If lawsuits are filed, they will be civil ones, and they will be with the U.S. District Court for the District of San Francisco."
She said passengers can file civil lawsuits and will get compensation according to the damage suffered.
"U.S. law is better for passengers than Chinese or Korean law. All can be expected to file their cases in the U.S. They are filed individually but proceed as a group through the courts."
She said that the cases will be against the Airline, and perhaps Boeing and the airport if facts indicate they did something negligent or failed to do something the law requires.
According to Shiavo, an international treaty called the Montreal Accords will apply guaranteeing the passengers their day in court and their right to recover all their proven damages ― physical, financial, and emotional from their injuries.
