By Kim Tae-gyu
The U.N. sanctions imposed in response to North Korea's Feb. 12 nuclear test are expected to deal a substantial blow to the reclusive country as its close ally China is ready to cooperate in their enforcement.
The latest measures, unanimously adopted Thursday (local time) by the 15-member U.N. Security Council (UNSC), obliges the 193 member states of the U.N. to crack down on North Korean financial transactions and inspect cargo suspected of containing prohibited items related to weapons and nuclear materials.
At issue is whether Beijing, which crafted the draft of sanctions with Washington, will go beyond the scope of the resolution and include measures such as reducing fuel supplies and trade with Pyongyang that would amount to further tightening the economic noose on the already isolated state.
The impact of the sanctions depends on how China will cooperate, analysts said.
"Included in the resolution is the ban on any aircraft to and from Pyongyang if they are believed to be carrying banned items. You know almost all of North Korean air traffic is with China and China made the sanctions draft," Korea Defense Network head Shin In-kyun said.
"The clause demonstrates China's willingness to reinforce the sanctions even though we are not sure how active the nation will be. Beijing's stance itself will inflict big psychological damage on Pyongyang."
He added that the strengthened ban on travel and trade as well as newly blacklisted individuals and entities will also weigh on the country's nuclear and missile ambitions.
Chang Yong-seok, a researcher at Seoul National University's Institute for Peace and Unification Studies, expects that the North will have trouble trading not just with China but with other Asian nations.
"North Korea has traded with Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian countries as well as China. As the inspections on dubious North Korean cargo become mandatory this should have an impact," Chang said.
However, he did not expect the fourth set of sanctions on the Stalinist regime would change its pattern of going tit-for-tat as shown by its recent apocalyptic rhetoric such as threats of a preemptive nuclear attack or disregarding the armistice that ended the Korean War (1950-53).
After the sanctions were adopted, Pyongyang allegedly decided to abandon all non-aggression pacts with the South while closing its hotline with Seoul.
"The chances are that the North will try to prove that the ceasefire is scrapped as it declared. It is likely to fast-track its plans of retaliations like holding missile tests or regional provocation," Chang said.
By contrast, Sejong Institute's Paik Hak-soon expects that the sanctions will not affect the North that much.
"Let me say two fundamental facts. Because the North Korean financial system is not integrated into the international financial system, any constraints can hardly have a big impact," Paik said.
"China's cooperation with the punitive measures will be also limited. Although the country is currently cooperative, it is an archrival of the United States attempting to jack up its influence on the Korean Peninsula. It cannot give up North Korea."
The enhanced vigilance over North Korea's diplomats is expected to prevent the Kim Jong-un's regime from getting "bulk transfers" of cash through exploiting the special treatment given to diplomatic personnel.
However, Paik said that this is an ineffective approach.
"North Korea will find new ways to sidestep the sanctions. It's a cat-and-mouse game and the mouse will not be caught. Instead of sanctions, the global community needs to come up with alternative ways to draw the North into dialogue."
In particular, he took issue with the import ban on luxury items such as yachts, racing cars, jewelry and luxury automobiles. Paik expected the steps to anger North Korean elite so that they will become more reluctant to compromise in the future.
The U.N. sanctions imposed in response to North Korea's Feb. 12 nuclear test are expected to deal a substantial blow to the reclusive country as its close ally China is ready to cooperate in their enforcement.
The latest measures, unanimously adopted Thursday (local time) by the 15-member U.N. Security Council (UNSC), obliges the 193 member states of the U.N. to crack down on North Korean financial transactions and inspect cargo suspected of containing prohibited items related to weapons and nuclear materials.
At issue is whether Beijing, which crafted the draft of sanctions with Washington, will go beyond the scope of the resolution and include measures such as reducing fuel supplies and trade with Pyongyang that would amount to further tightening the economic noose on the already isolated state.
The impact of the sanctions depends on how China will cooperate, analysts said.
"Included in the resolution is the ban on any aircraft to and from Pyongyang if they are believed to be carrying banned items. You know almost all of North Korean air traffic is with China and China made the sanctions draft," Korea Defense Network head Shin In-kyun said.
"The clause demonstrates China's willingness to reinforce the sanctions even though we are not sure how active the nation will be. Beijing's stance itself will inflict big psychological damage on Pyongyang."
He added that the strengthened ban on travel and trade as well as newly blacklisted individuals and entities will also weigh on the country's nuclear and missile ambitions.
Chang Yong-seok, a researcher at Seoul National University's Institute for Peace and Unification Studies, expects that the North will have trouble trading not just with China but with other Asian nations.
"North Korea has traded with Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian countries as well as China. As the inspections on dubious North Korean cargo become mandatory this should have an impact," Chang said.
However, he did not expect the fourth set of sanctions on the Stalinist regime would change its pattern of going tit-for-tat as shown by its recent apocalyptic rhetoric such as threats of a preemptive nuclear attack or disregarding the armistice that ended the Korean War (1950-53).
After the sanctions were adopted, Pyongyang allegedly decided to abandon all non-aggression pacts with the South while closing its hotline with Seoul.
"The chances are that the North will try to prove that the ceasefire is scrapped as it declared. It is likely to fast-track its plans of retaliations like holding missile tests or regional provocation," Chang said.
By contrast, Sejong Institute's Paik Hak-soon expects that the sanctions will not affect the North that much.
"Let me say two fundamental facts. Because the North Korean financial system is not integrated into the international financial system, any constraints can hardly have a big impact," Paik said.
"China's cooperation with the punitive measures will be also limited. Although the country is currently cooperative, it is an archrival of the United States attempting to jack up its influence on the Korean Peninsula. It cannot give up North Korea."
The enhanced vigilance over North Korea's diplomats is expected to prevent the Kim Jong-un's regime from getting "bulk transfers" of cash through exploiting the special treatment given to diplomatic personnel.
However, Paik said that this is an ineffective approach.
"North Korea will find new ways to sidestep the sanctions. It's a cat-and-mouse game and the mouse will not be caught. Instead of sanctions, the global community needs to come up with alternative ways to draw the North into dialogue."
In particular, he took issue with the import ban on luxury items such as yachts, racing cars, jewelry and luxury automobiles. Paik expected the steps to anger North Korean elite so that they will become more reluctant to compromise in the future.
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