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2012-05-24 16:59

North sends mixed messages on nuke issue


This April 30, 2012 satellite image provided by GeoEye shows the area around the Yongbyon nuclear facility in Yongbyon, North Korea. / Korea Times file
By Chung Hee-hyung

North Korea declared Monday that it had no intention of renouncing its nuclear development program should the United States continue to take “hostile actions.”

“We have no choice but to take countermeasures for self- defense as long as the United States persists in ratcheting up sanctions against us,” said an unidentified foreign ministry spokesman in an interview with the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

The isolated state, however, also left some room for negotiation. The spokesman stated that the country had only been preparing for a “peaceful” satellite launch for scientific purposes, and therefore never planned for “military measures,” including nuclear tests.

The mixed message has puzzled experts who were forced to decipher the North’s coded language and figure out what precisely the isolated country had in mind. Experts have widely expected the Stalinist state to conduct a third nuclear test shortly after it lost face following its failed rocket launch last month. The country already conducted nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.

The confusion was evident when news agencies across the world gave widely different interpretations to the statement.

Reuters reported that North Korea was to “boost its nuclear deterrent,” while the Chinese Xinhua agency’s headline read “North says it has no intention of holding nuclear tests.” The Japanese Kyoto agency was more cautious and reported that the country was hinting at more tests if the United States stepped up pressure for sanctions.

Responses from foreign governments were mostly skeptical. “We’re going to be guided by not what they say, but what they do,” U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said at a press briefing.

The spokeswoman said she was not even clear on North Korea’s words, let alone its deeds. “I’m not sure what they meant by that…I’m not sure what they had in mind.”

South Korea also made it clear that its adversary’s latest overture will have little impact on the government’s policy. “We have no indication that the North is less likely to embark upon additional provocation,” a spokesman of the Ministry of Unification told reporters after the North made its announcement.

President Lee Myung-bak also refused to take stock of Pyongyang’s recent message. At a meeting with delegates from the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday, he said that North Korea’s human rights was a more pressing issue than its nuclear development and thus should merit more outside attention.

He also stressed the importance of cooperation among states in dealing with the North. It was an implicit message that South Korea would not be dragged into the Stalinist state’s infamous “divide and conquer” tactics which try to exploit divisions within the international community. “We should send a strong and consistent message to the North,” Lee said at the meeting.

Some South Korean officials, however, cautiously predicted that the North was unlikely to opt for an immediate nuclear test. “In the past two tests, the North had already accumulated enough technical data on the weapon, so a third one is not really necessary,” a senior official said asking not to be identified.

“It also makes little political sense. The test would only further isolate the country in the international scene.”

Another official of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs agreed that the North would sit back and see how the situation might develop rather than press for another test. “As always, the statement was very calculated and deliberately ambiguous,” the official said.

“In essence, the North is saying that they won’t conduct a further test for the time being, but launching a rocket is a different matter with which the outside world has no business.”

The North may not just sit idly by while the country waits for outside responses to its recent message. A satellite image unveiled on Wednesday showed large-scale construction around North Korea’s northeastern site of Musidan-ri.

The U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies said that the site’s upgraded facility could accommodate rockets larger than the recently-tested Unha (Galaxy). The image even showed a razed village on which a rocket assembly plant was being built. The picture seems to suggest that North Korea has no intention of giving up its rocket development, “peaceful” or otherwise.




관련 한글기사


북한의 모호한 메시지

북한 당국은 지난 21일 조선중앙통신의 외무부 대변인 인터뷰를 통해 미국이 적대시 정책을 중단하지 않는 한 핵개발을 계속할 것이라고 밝혔다.

북한 외무성 대변인은 인터뷰에서 “우리의 자위적인 핵 억제력은 미국의 적대시 정책 때문에 생겨난 것이며 적대시 정책이 계속되는 한 핵 억제력은 순간도 멈춤 없이 확대·강화될 것”이라고 위협했다.

하지만 동시에 “우리는 처음부터 평화적 과학기술위성 발사를 계획했기 때문에 핵시험과 같은 군사적 조치는 예견한 것이 없었다”면서 협상의 여지를 남겨뒀다.

북한의 이러한 어중간한 메시지를 두고 관련국들과 북한 전문가들은 핵개발에 대한 진의가 무엇인지 파악하기 위해 고심하고 있다. 북한의 발표 직후 각국 통신사에서 엇갈린 보도를 낸 것도 이와 무관하지 않은 것으로 보인다.

중국의 신화 통신은 북한의 발표를 두고 ‘핵실험 계획 부인’이라고 보도했으나 영국의 로이터는 ‘핵억지력 강화 선언’이라는 부정적인 입장을 보였고 일본의 교도통신은 ‘미국이 대북 압박을 계속할 경우 핵실험에 나설 수도’라며 보다 신중한 반응을 보였다.

반면 한미 양국은 최소한 공식적으로는 북한의 메시지에 큰 의미를 부여하지 않는 것으로 보인다.. 빅토리아 뉼런드 미 국무부 대변인은 22일(현지시각) 정례 브리핑에서 “우리는 그들의 말이 아니라 행동에 따라 움직일 것”이라고 밝혔다. 심지어 “북한이 어떤 의미로 그런 말을 했는지 확실치 않다”며 북한이 ‘평화적’이라고 주장한 로켓발사관련 발언을 평가절하했다.

한국 정부도 조선중앙통신의 보도에 특별한 반응을 보이지 않았다. 통일부 대변인은 “북한이 추가적인 핵실험이나 도발을 하지 않는다거나 가능성이 낮아졌다고 판단할 수 없다”고 언급했다.

하지만 일부 고위 관리들은 북한이 적어도 단시일 내에는 핵실험을 하지는 않으리라고 조심스럽게 예측했다. 익명을 요구한 한 관계자는 “북한은 이미 과거 두 차례의 핵실험을 통해 관련 데이터를 충분히 축적했기 때문에 추가적인 핵실험을 할 필요가 없다. 핵실험을 하면 국제사회의 고립만 자초할 것이다”며 추가 핵실험에 대해 회의적인 반응을 보였다.

또 다른 외교 통상부 관리도 북한의 진의를 두고 “당장은 핵실험에 나서지는 않겠지만 로켓 발사만큼은 우리의 당연한 권리라고 주장하는 것으로 보인다”고 분석했다.


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