By Lee Tae-hoon
Staff reporter
The June 2 local elections remain too close to call in major battlegrounds due to lingering uncertainty over how the Cheonan issue and any possible "Roh Moo-hyun effect" will influence voters at the polls.
Former President Roh Moo-hyun killed himself a year ago during an investigation of his family for alleged involvement in a bribery scandal.
Past records show that North Korea's security threats against Seoul rally support for conservatives, as seen from the downing of Korean Air flight 858 in November 1987.
The tragedy which took place only two weeks before the presidential election helped Roh Tae-woo, then presidential candidate for the ruling party, secure victory.
However, some campaign watchers say it is still uncertain whether the North's involvement in the sinking of the frigate Cheonan on March 26 will strengthen the position of the governing Grand National Party (GNP) in the upcoming polls.
They say the findings of the investigation into the naval incident have also revealed a security loophole in President Lee Myung-bak's administration.
Two North Korean submarines were presumed to have infiltrated into South Korean waters and returned to their port without being detected after firing a torpedo that sank the 1,200-ton warship near the sea border with North Korea.
Analysts also point out that the so-called Roh effect may have a limited impact on the elections, overshadowed by the Cheonan issue.
They say opposition parties should be wary of criticism for capitalizing on Roh's death for political gain.
According to recent polls, ruling and opposition candidates were engaged in close races in many of the gubernatorial and mayoral races, while GNP candidates maintained a lead in the races for Gyeonggi governor, and Seoul and Incheon mayors.
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