Rise in temperatures, solar radiation by 2100 inevitable: weather agency

The Korea Times

The Korea Times

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Sun, October 1, 2023 | 02:13

Rise in temperatures, solar radiation by 2100 inevitable: weather agency

Posted : 2023-06-07 15:41

Updated : 2023-06-08 10:25

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Low-level ozone can be reduced significantly with carbon neutralization efforts, authority said

By Ko Dong-hwan

Whether humanity continues with scientific advancements to slow down the devastating impact of the climate crisis or halts efforts for a healthier world, Korea will inevitably see a rise in the amount of solar radiation and temperature by the end of this century, according to the country's top weather agency.

The outlook for 2100 came from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) on Wednesday. The research findings serve as a wake-up call not just for carbon emitters in Korea but also for the world, that carbon neutrality efforts should continue over the coming decades to minimize the climatic impact on the earth.

The study was designed to show how humanity's eco-friendly efforts could create the formation of ideal atmospheric conditions for ozone generation around the globe. Key conditions include a temperature of 25 degrees Celsius or higher, a relative humidity level of 75 percent or lower, wind speeds of 4 meters per second or slower and solar radiation at 6.4 mega-joules per square meter or higher.

The authority's research hypothesized two contrasting scenarios: Humanity stops developing environmental initiatives and maintains the status quo while likely emitting large amounts of carbon; or, humanity implements all available scientific measures in order to curb emissions. The study saw how each scenario will play out by 2081-2100 and compared it to the state of the earth between 1995 and 2014.

The study showed that in both scenarios, the temperature and the quantity of solar radiation, to varying degrees, will rise compared to the present. Under the high-carbon scenario, the daily temperature, on average, will rise by as much as 3.8 degrees Celsius and the quantity of solar radiation will reach 4.5 watts per square meter.

The authority, however, added that low-level ozone concentrations can be significantly reduced if carbon reduction efforts continue. It is promising for the country, as levels of this atmospheric pollutant have steadily been rising and remain high in urban areas.

Ozone, which forms the ozone layer in the earth's stratosphere, blocking UV light from reaching the earth's surface, is also known for being hazardous, leading to mucous and respiratory tissues in animals and plants. The damage caused by this is most prevalent in Korea during the summer ― from May to September ― according to the KMA.

The study also forecasted that there will be 34 more days with the ideal atmospheric conditions for the generation of highly concentrated amounts of ozone. Average ozone concentration levels in Korea will also increase by four percent under the scenario.

Even under another high-carbon scenario with and cleaner air due to reduced amounts of industrial chemicals like organic carbons, sulfate and soot, the study showed that future temperatures will rise by as much as 4.2 degree Celsius and solar radiation will increase by as much as 4.5 watt per square meter.

The low-carbon scenario predicts that future temperatures will rise by as much as 1.8 degree Celsius and solar radiation by 17.3 watts per square meter. But a notable outcome from the scenario is that the country's average ozone concentration level can be reduced to 41 percent of what it is today.

Predicting future weather and climatic conditions is extremely important for a country because this helps preparation for highly concentrated ozone levels and the impacts of the climate crisis, said Yoo Hee-dong, administrator at the KMA, following the release of the study's findings.

aoshima11@koreatimes.co.kr