N. Korea may continue provocations in protest against S. Korea-US drill
By Yi Whan-woo
The chances of holding inter-Korean dialogue on either political or nonpolitical issues don't seem to be big as Pyongyang has continued its military provocations despite Seoul's offers for talks.
Some analysts expect dialogue is unlikely to occur anytime soon, or not within the year, with a joint military exercise between South Korea and the United States being planned this month and North Korea's possible additional military provocations on national days it celebrates in September and October.
Analysts said Thursday that the North may continue to refuse to talk to protest the Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) exercise, which will begin Aug. 21. The repressive state has called the drill a rehearsal for an invasion.
This time, the U.S. is likely to deploy strategic assets during the exercise as a show of force following Pyongyang's recent intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests, and this is likely to bring more of a backlash from the North.
It is also speculated that the Kim Jong-un regime, instead of returning to the bargaining table, may conduct more nuclear or ballistic missile tests to mark the 69th anniversary of the country's founding, Sept. 9, and the 72nd anniversary of the Workers Party of Korea, Oct. 10.
No resumption of inter-Korean dialogue will cast a shadow on President Moon Jae-in's peace overture presented in Berlin in July.
The government offered to resume military talks to ease borderline tensions, July 21, and the Red Cross talks for the reunion of families separated by the Korean War, Aug. 1 _ North Korea did not respond to either of the offers.
"I'm doubtful about any inter-Korean dialogue taking place this year under these circumstances," said Paik Hak-soon, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute.
The analysts said Pyongyang's test of two ICBMs apparently hampered the mood for inter-Korean talks.
But Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University, said the Kim regime ironically may return to the negotiation table if it completes development of its ICBM technology.
"The regime may want to use ICBMs as a bargaining chip and is likely to engage in dialogue if it is confident that it has mastered the relevant technology," Park said.
He said possible inter-Korean talks may depend on the success of the latest U.S. sanctions on Russia, North Korea and Iran that President Donald Trump approved Wednesday.
Although much of the attention was on Russia, the sanctions also aim at tightening the noose on North Korea by blocking its imports of crude oil and oil products, banning the employment of North Korean workers forced to earn cash abroad, interdicting ships from North Korea and countries that are uncooperative with the U.N. sanctions, and curbing trade of North Korean goods online.
For South Korea, experts said cooperation with China and Russia will be critical to facilitate dialogue.
"The regional powers appear to be hostile toward each other in the wake of North Korea's ICBM tests and it will further disrupt Moon's Berlin peace overture," Paik said. "The North Korean issue involves the neighboring countries and the Moon administration should expand its strategy to embrace them in an appropriate manner."
By Yi Whan-woo
The chances of holding inter-Korean dialogue on either political or nonpolitical issues don't seem to be big as Pyongyang has continued its military provocations despite Seoul's offers for talks.
Some analysts expect dialogue is unlikely to occur anytime soon, or not within the year, with a joint military exercise between South Korea and the United States being planned this month and North Korea's possible additional military provocations on national days it celebrates in September and October.
Analysts said Thursday that the North may continue to refuse to talk to protest the Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) exercise, which will begin Aug. 21. The repressive state has called the drill a rehearsal for an invasion.
This time, the U.S. is likely to deploy strategic assets during the exercise as a show of force following Pyongyang's recent intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests, and this is likely to bring more of a backlash from the North.
It is also speculated that the Kim Jong-un regime, instead of returning to the bargaining table, may conduct more nuclear or ballistic missile tests to mark the 69th anniversary of the country's founding, Sept. 9, and the 72nd anniversary of the Workers Party of Korea, Oct. 10.
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No resumption of inter-Korean dialogue will cast a shadow on President Moon Jae-in's peace overture presented in Berlin in July.
The government offered to resume military talks to ease borderline tensions, July 21, and the Red Cross talks for the reunion of families separated by the Korean War, Aug. 1 _ North Korea did not respond to either of the offers.
"I'm doubtful about any inter-Korean dialogue taking place this year under these circumstances," said Paik Hak-soon, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute.
The analysts said Pyongyang's test of two ICBMs apparently hampered the mood for inter-Korean talks.
But Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University, said the Kim regime ironically may return to the negotiation table if it completes development of its ICBM technology.
"The regime may want to use ICBMs as a bargaining chip and is likely to engage in dialogue if it is confident that it has mastered the relevant technology," Park said.
He said possible inter-Korean talks may depend on the success of the latest U.S. sanctions on Russia, North Korea and Iran that President Donald Trump approved Wednesday.
Although much of the attention was on Russia, the sanctions also aim at tightening the noose on North Korea by blocking its imports of crude oil and oil products, banning the employment of North Korean workers forced to earn cash abroad, interdicting ships from North Korea and countries that are uncooperative with the U.N. sanctions, and curbing trade of North Korean goods online.
For South Korea, experts said cooperation with China and Russia will be critical to facilitate dialogue.
"The regional powers appear to be hostile toward each other in the wake of North Korea's ICBM tests and it will further disrupt Moon's Berlin peace overture," Paik said. "The North Korean issue involves the neighboring countries and the Moon administration should expand its strategy to embrace them in an appropriate manner."
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