Will China play role in end-of-war declaration?

In this combined photo, South Korea's National Security Advisor Suh Hoon, left, and the Communist Party of China's foreign affairs chief, Yang Jiechi, each enter the Westin Josun Hotel in Busan on Aug. 22, 2020, to have a meeting. Yonhap

Seoul's national security advisor to visit China to address pending issues

By Nam Hyun-woo

The scheduled visit to China by President Moon Jae-in's top security advisor is widely believed to be seeking Beijing's support and cooperation for the President's proposal of declaring an official end to the Korean War. However, experts say it remains to be seen how actively China will work on the issue, given the complex geopolitical situation.

Cheong Wa Dae said, Wednesday, that National Security Advisor Suh Hoon will visit Tianjin from Thursday to Friday for talks with his Chinese counterparts, at the invitation of the Chinese Communist Party's head of foreign affairs, Yang Jiechi.

The presidential office said that Suh's trip will be a reciprocal visit for Yang's visit to Busan in August last year, and the two will discuss, "South Korea-China relations, Korean Peninsula issues, regional and international affairs and other topics of mutual interests."

Though Cheong Wa Dae did not elaborate further, sources said the chances were high that the talks will be about arranging a possible meeting between Moon and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as well as seeking Beijing's role in the end-of-war proposal that involves the two Koreas, the U.S. and possibly China.

The 1950-1953 Korean War ended in an armistice, as opposed to a peace treaty, leaving the two Koreas technically still at war. As part of his initiative to facilitate a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, Moon re-proposed the declaration between the four countries in September in the belief that it will be a powerful enticement to bring the North back to stalled denuclearization talks.

Since the proposal, Seoul and Washington have been working out a draft version of the declaration, according to a number of South Korean officials, who added that coordination was in its final stages.

During his meeting with Yang, Suh is anticipated to share the progress on the declaration, as China has also expressed its interest in the issue.

On Tuesday, a senior South Korean government official told Beijing correspondents, "As a country that signed the armistice for the Korean War, China has the intention to participate in the end-of-war declaration, and it seems clear that China wants to be part of the declaration."

Though it appears that Moon's proposal is picking up momentum, experts have said a tough task awaits Suh, because China wants to increase its presence in the declaration process, while having complex interests of its own regarding potential political changes on the Korean Peninsula afterward.

"The invitation rather seems to be China's complaint to South Korea because Beijing has been sidelined from talks on the declaration so far," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University. "In their meeting, China's top priority is assumed to be stressing that Beijing should be included as a major interested party in the discussions for the end-of-war declaration, given the country's efforts to strengthen its presence to counter U.S. influence."

If China participates in the end-of-war declaration discussions, however, the progress is anticipated to be more complex than it is now, because China also has to weigh between contradicting outcomes from different choices, Park said.

"The ultimate goal of the end-of-war declaration is signing a peace treaty and the normalization of U.S.-North Korea relations, which China may not want, considering the current backdrop of fierce U.S.-China competition," Park said. "On the other hand, there is no reason for China to oppose a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula or the North's denuclearization. Also, it will be complicated for China to choose whether to accept the anticipated clause stating that the declaration does not affect the armistice status between the two Koreas."

Reportedly, South Korea and the U.S. are in talks to include clauses that the declaration will not affect the armistice status, thus allowing the United Nations Command in South Korea and U.S. Forces Korea to stay as they are today.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in shakes hands with his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping, during their summit in Beijing in this Dec. 14, 2017, photo. Yonhap

China's hosting of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics is also anticipated to be discussed, as China wants to use the Games as a vehicle showcasing messages of peace. Due to this situation, there has been some anticipation that an end-of-war statement could be declared during the Games, but that is uncertain to occur, as the U.S. is reported to be considering a diplomatic boycott of the sporting event.

Along with inter-Korean issues, Suh and Yang are expected to touch on long-stalled talks about Chinese President Xi's visit to Seoul. Since South Korean President Moon first visited Xi in 2017, the Chinese leader has promised a return visit, but he is yet to pay one amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Since both South Korea and China are making efforts to contain the spread of the Omicron variant, a virtual summit between Moon and Xi has also been mentioned as an alternative.

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